Every call, on the record.

Every falsifiable call our analysts publish is logged here the day the article goes live, then machine-scored against market data when its horizon expires. Hits and misses both stay on the board, permanently. No cherry-picking, no quiet deletions.

Calls logged
323
Scored
246
Hits
119
Misses
127
Hit rate
48%

Check our math: download the full ledger as CSV or JSON. Every row links to the article that made the call.

Scored calls

DateAssetCallAt callHorizonOutcomeResultShare
Sep 17, 2026
S&P 500
Marcus Webb
bearish7,637.767d7,704.13Missios_share
Sep 15, 2026
Bitcoin
Priya Kapoor
neutral75,5877d86,281Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
US 10-year yield
Marcus Webb
bullish4.977d5.00Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
CPI
Marcus Webb
bullish25.607d25.60Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
US 10-year yield
Marcus Webb
bearish
target 755
4.977d5.00Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Nasdaq-100
Marcus Webb
bearish29,3687d29,644Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Bitcoin
Marcus Webb
bearish
target 77.00
77,3287d81,144Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Gold
Marcus Webb
bullish4,3901d4,340Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
US 10-year yield
Marcus Webb
bearish4.977d5.00Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Nasdaq-100
Marcus Webb
bearish29,3687d29,644Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
GLD
Marcus Webb
bullish398.777d401.17Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
SPY
Marcus Webb
bullish764.297d761.69Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
US 10-year yield
Marcus Webb
bullish4.977d5.00Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Dow
Marcus Webb
bearish52,5737d51,683Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Bitcoin
Marcus Webb
bearish77,3267d81,144Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
CPI
Marcus Webb
bullish25.601d25.60Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
WTI crude
Marcus Webb
neutral
target 78.00
99.997d95.47Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Dow
Marcus Webb
bullish52,5737d51,683Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Bitcoin
Marcus Webb
bullish77,3267d81,144Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
CPI
Marcus Webb
bullish25.607d25.60Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Gold
Marcus Webb
bullish4,3907d4,415.9Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
WTI crude
Marcus Webb
bullish
target 88.00
99.997d95.47Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Gold
Marcus Webb
bullish
target 405
4,3907d4,415.9Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Silver
Marcus Webb
bearish
target 57.00
65.027d66.78Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Silver
Marcus Webb
bearish65.027d66.78Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Gold
Marcus Webb
neutral4,3907d4,415.9Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
WTI crude
Marcus Webb
bullish99.997d95.47Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Gold
Marcus Webb
bullish4,3907d4,415.9Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Silver
Marcus Webb
bullish65.027d66.78Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
WTI crude
Marcus Webb
neutral
target 91.00
99.997d95.47Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
WTI crude
Marcus Webb
neutral
target 88.00
99.997d95.47Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Nasdaq-100
Marcus Webb
bearish29,3681d29,127Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Gold
Marcus Webb
bearish
target 390
4,3901d4,340Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Gold
Marcus Webb
bullish
target 60.00
4,3907d4,415.9Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
WTI crude
Marcus Webb
bearish
target 88.00
99.997d95.47Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
WTI crude
Marcus Webb
bearish99.997d95.47Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
US 10-year yield
Marcus Webb
bullish4.977d5.00Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Gold
Marcus Webb
bearish4,3907d4,415.9Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Gold
Marcus Webb
bullish
target 390
4,3901d4,340Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
WTI crude
Marcus Webb
neutral99.997d95.47Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Dow
Marcus Webb
bearish52,5737d51,683Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
US 10-year yield
Marcus Webb
bullish4.977d5.00Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Nasdaq-100
Marcus Webb
bearish29,3687d29,644Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Dow
Marcus Webb
bullish52,5737d51,683Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
CPI
Marcus Webb
bullish25.607d25.60Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Nasdaq-100
Marcus Webb
bearish29,3687d29,644Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
SPY
Marcus Webb
bearish764.297d761.69Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Bitcoin
Marcus Webb
bullish77,3237d81,144Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Bitcoin
Marcus Webb
bearish77,3237d81,144Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Gold
Marcus Webb
bullish4,3907d4,415.9Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Gold
Marcus Webb
bearish4,3907d4,415.9Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Dow
Marcus Webb
bearish52,5737d51,683Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
XLK
Marcus Webb
bearish187.677d189.6Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Nasdaq-100
Marcus Webb
bearish29,3687d29,644Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
QQQ
Marcus Webb
bearish
target 700
714.887d721.45Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
SPY
Marcus Webb
bearish
target 750
764.291d760.88Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Silver
Marcus Webb
bearish65.027d66.78Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Ethereum
Marcus Webb
bearish2,534.767d2,628.88Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
SPY
Marcus Webb
bearish764.297d761.69Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Bitcoin
Sarah Chen
bullish77,3257d81,144Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Gold
Sarah Chen
bearish4,3907d4,415.9Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Dow
Sarah Chen
bearish52,5737d51,683Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Gold
Sarah Chen
bullish4,3907d4,415.9Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Bitcoin
Sarah Chen
bearish77,3267d81,144Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Silver
Sarah Chen
bearish65.027d66.78Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
US 10-year yield
Sarah Chen
bullish4.977d5.00Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
US 10-year yield
Marcus Webb
bearish4.977d5.00Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Nasdaq-100
Marcus Webb
bearish29,3687d29,644Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
US 10-year yield
Marcus Webb
bullish4.977d5.00Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Bitcoin
Marcus Webb
bullish77,3347d81,144Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Gold
Marcus Webb
bearish4,3907d4,415.9Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
CPI
Marcus Webb
bullish25.607d25.60Missios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Nasdaq-100
Marcus Webb
bullish29,3687d29,644Hitios_share
Sep 11, 2026
Dow
Marcus Webb
bearish52,5731d52,421Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Dow
Sarah Chen
bullish52,5737d51,778Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
CPI
Sarah Chen
bearish25.607d—Voidios_share
Sep 10, 2026
WTI crude
Sarah Chen
bullish99.997d101.09Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
SPY
Sarah Chen
bearish764.297d762.6Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
US 10-year yield
Sarah Chen
bullish4.977d4.95Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
TLT
Sarah Chen
bearish80.877d81.78Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
TLT
Sarah Chen
bearish80.877d81.78Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
PPI
Sarah Chen
bearish21.091d21.09Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Dollar index
Sarah Chen
bullish99.097d100.22Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
CPI
Sarah Chen
bearish25.607d—Voidios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Russell 2000
James Nakamura
bearish2,903.947d2,874.63Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
US 10-year yield
James Nakamura
bullish4.977d4.95Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
CPI
Sarah Chen
bullish25.607d—Voidios_share
Sep 10, 2026
CPI
Sarah Chen
bearish25.607d—Voidios_share
Sep 10, 2026
CPI
Sarah Chen
bullish25.601d25.60Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Ethereum
Sarah Chen
bullish2,535.087d2,449.08Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Dow
Sarah Chen
bearish52,5737d51,778Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
CPI
Sarah Chen
bullish25.607d—Voidios_share
Sep 10, 2026
AAA
Sarah Chen
bearish24.867d—Voidios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Dow
Sarah Chen
bearish52,5737d51,778Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
US 10-year yield
Sarah Chen
bearish4.977d4.95Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
US 10-year yield
Sarah Chen
bullish4.977d4.95Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Russell 2000
James Nakamura
bullish2,903.947d2,874.63Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Silver
James Nakamura
bullish65.027d65.72Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Gold
James Nakamura
bullish4,3907d4,380.6Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
SPY
James Nakamura
neutral764.297d762.6Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Bitcoin
James Nakamura
neutral77,3417d76,455Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
WTI crude
James Nakamura
bullish99.997d101.09Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
XLE
James Nakamura
bullish65.147d64.48Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
US 10-year yield
James Nakamura
bullish4.977d4.95Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
US 10-year yield
James Nakamura
bearish
target 288
4.977d—Voidios_share
Sep 10, 2026
GLD
James Nakamura
bullish398.777d398.36Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
CPI
James Nakamura
bullish25.607d—Voidios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish4,3907d4,380.6Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish
target 4.00
4,3907d—Voidios_share
Sep 10, 2026
USD
David Morales
bearish86.067d—Voidios_share
Sep 10, 2026
USO
David Morales
bullish154.97d155.31Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
GDX
David Morales
bullish97.107d95.92Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Silver
David Morales
bullish65.027d65.72Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Silver
David Morales
bearish
target 67.00
65.027d65.72Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bearish
target 4.00
4,3907d—Voidios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bearish4,3907d4,380.6Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
WTI crude
David Morales
bearish
target 92.00
99.997d101.09Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Silver
Marcus Webb
bullish65.027d65.72Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Gold
Marcus Webb
bearish
target 4.00
4,3907d—Voidios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Gold
Marcus Webb
bullish
target 4.00
4,3907d—Voidios_share
Sep 10, 2026
USO
Marcus Webb
bullish154.97d155.31Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
WTI crude
Marcus Webb
bearish99.997d101.09Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Gold
Marcus Webb
bullish4,3907d4,380.6Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
GLD
Sarah Chen
bullish398.777d398.36Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Dow
Sarah Chen
bearish52,5737d51,778Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Silver
Sarah Chen
bearish65.027d65.72Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
IEF
Sarah Chen
bearish91.017d91.25Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Ethereum
Sarah Chen
bullish2,534.677d2,449.08Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
CPI
Sarah Chen
bullish25.607d—Voidios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Bitcoin
Sarah Chen
bullish77,3237d76,455Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
US 10-year yield
Sarah Chen
bullish4.977d4.95Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Gold
Sarah Chen
bullish4,3907d4,380.6Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Dow
Sarah Chen
bearish52,5737d51,778Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bearish
target 4.00
4,3907d—Voidios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish
target 4.00
4,3907d—Voidios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish4,3907d4,380.6Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
USO
David Morales
bullish154.97d155.31Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bearish4,3907d4,380.6Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bearish4,3907d4,380.6Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Silver
David Morales
bullish65.027d65.72Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Silver
David Morales
bearish
target 67.00
65.027d65.72Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
US 10-year yield
David Morales
bullish4.977d4.95Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Silver
David Morales
bearish65.027d65.72Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bearish
target 4.00
4,3907d—Voidios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish4,3907d4,380.6Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
GDX
David Morales
bearish97.107d95.92Hitios_share
Sep 10, 2026
WTI crude
David Morales
bearish99.997d101.09Missios_share
Sep 10, 2026
USD
David Morales
bearish86.067d—Voidios_share
Sep 7, 2026
Dow
James Nakamura
bullish53,4147d52,421Missios_share
Sep 6, 2026
Dow
Marcus Webb
neutral53,4147d52,421Hitios_share
Sep 4, 2026
Gold
Sarah Chen
bullish
target 26.00
4,477.221d—Voidios_share
Sep 4, 2026
Nasdaq-100
Sarah Chen
bullish29,5447d29,368Missios_share
Sep 4, 2026
Gold
Sarah Chen
bullish4,477.27d4,390Missios_share
Sep 3, 2026
Dxy
Marcus Webb
bullish99.167d99.08Missios_share
Sep 3, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish
target 23.00
4,477.221d4,310.1Voidios_share
Sep 3, 2026
Gold
Marcus Webb
bullish4,477.27d4,358.5Missios_share
Sep 3, 2026
10-Year Treasury
Sarah Chen
bullish4.7821d5.16Hitios_share
Sep 3, 2026
Crude Oil
David Morales
bearish91.227d103.93Missios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Gold
Sarah Chen
bearish4,647.87d4,434.3Hitios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Dow
Sarah Chen
bearish53,4647d53,062Hitios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Dow
Sarah Chen
bearish53,46430d51,829Hitios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Dow
Sarah Chen
bearish53,4647d53,062Hitios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Dow
James Nakamura
bearish53,4647d53,062Hitios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Dow
James Nakamura
bullish53,4647d53,062Missios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Dow
James Nakamura
bearish53,46430d51,829Hitios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Dow
James Nakamura
bearish53,4647d53,062Hitios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Bitcoin
Marcus Webb
bullish78,7777d77,227Missios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Dow
James Nakamura
bullish53,4647d53,062Missios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Dow
James Nakamura
bearish53,4647d53,062Hitios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Dow
Sarah Chen
bearish
target 78.00
53,46430d—Voidios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Dow
Sarah Chen
bearish53,4647d53,062Hitios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Dow
Sarah Chen
bearish
target 963
53,4647d53,062Missios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish4,647.87d4,434.3Missios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Dow
David Morales
bullish53,4647d53,062Missios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bearish4,647.87d4,434.3Hitios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bearish
target 4.00
4,647.87d4,434.3Missios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish
target 4.00
4,647.87d4,434.3Hitios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Dow
David Morales
bearish53,46430d51,829Hitios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Dow
David Morales
bearish53,4647d53,062Hitios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Silver
David Morales
bullish68.087d65.93Missios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Dow
Marcus Webb
bearish53,46430d51,829Hitios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Gold
Marcus Webb
bullish4,647.830d4,320.5Missios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Bitcoin
Marcus Webb
neutral78,7867d77,229Hitios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Gold
Marcus Webb
bullish4,647.87d4,434.3Missios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Dow
Priya Kapoor
bullish53,4647d52,767Missios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Bitcoin
Priya Kapoor
bullish78,6057d—Voidios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Dow
James Nakamura
bullish53,4647d52,767Missios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Dow
James Nakamura
bearish53,4647d52,767Hitios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Bitcoin
Priya Kapoor
bullish
target 80.00
78,7727d77,012Hitios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Bitcoin
Priya Kapoor
bullish78,7727d77,012Missios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Bitcoin
Priya Kapoor
bullish
target 80,000
78,6057d—Voidios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Dow
Sarah Chen
bearish53,4647d52,767Hitios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Dow
Sarah Chen
bullish53,4647d52,767Missios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Dow
James Nakamura
bearish53,4647d52,767Hitios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish4,715.921d—Voidios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Dow
David Morales
bearish53,4647d52,767Hitios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish
target 4.00
4,647.87d4,375.7Hitios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish4,647.87d4,375.7Missios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Silver
David Morales
bullish68.087d64.66Missios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Dow
David Morales
bearish53,46430d51,350Hitios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish
target 4,033
4,715.930d—Voidios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bearish4,715.930d—Voidios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish4,647.87d4,375.7Missios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish4,715.921d—Voidios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Dow
David Morales
bearish53,4647d52,767Hitios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Dow
David Morales
bearish53,46430d51,350Hitios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Dow
Sarah Chen
bearish53,4647d52,767Hitios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Gold
Sarah Chen
bearish4,647.87d4,375.7Hitios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Gold
Sarah Chen
bullish4,647.87d4,375.7Missios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Silver
Sarah Chen
bearish68.087d64.66Hitios_share
Aug 25, 2026
Dow
Sarah Chen
bearish53,46430d51,350Hitios_share
Aug 24, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish4,715.990d—Voidios_share
Aug 24, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish4,715.921d—Voidios_share
Aug 24, 2026
Bitcoin
Priya Kapoor
bullish78,59021d—Voidios_share
Aug 24, 2026
Bitcoin
Priya Kapoor
bearish
target 77,103
78,5907d—Voidios_share
Aug 24, 2026
Gold
James Nakamura
bullish4,715.97d—Voidios_share
Aug 24, 2026
Gold
James Nakamura
bullish
target 4,453
4,715.97d—Voidios_share
Aug 24, 2026
Gold
James Nakamura
bullish4,715.97d—Voidios_share
Aug 24, 2026
Bitcoin
Sarah Chen
bullish
target 75,000
78,60921d—Voidios_share
Aug 20, 2026
Bitcoin
Marcus Webb
bullish
target 64,137
72,78921d77,205Hitios_share
Aug 20, 2026
Bitcoin
Marcus Webb
bullish
target 854
72,78930d86,827Voidios_share
Aug 20, 2026
Bitcoin
Marcus Webb
bullish
target 854
72,78921d77,205Hitios_share
Aug 20, 2026
Dow
Marcus Webb
bullish
target 60,000
52,75930d52,049Missios_share
Aug 20, 2026
Gold
David Morales
neutral
target 4,537
4,575.130d4,381Missios_share
Aug 20, 2026
Gold
David Morales
neutral
target 4,070
4,575.121d4,358.5Missios_share
Aug 20, 2026
Gold
Marcus Webb
bullish
target 4,390
4,575.130d4,381Missios_share
Aug 19, 2026
BTC
Sarah Chen
bullish
target 854
72,78930d81,144Hitios_share
Aug 19, 2026
ETH
Sarah Chen
bullish
target 20.00
2,321.130d2,628.88Hitios_share
Aug 19, 2026
Brent
Sarah Chen
bullish
target 90.00
93.1521d—Voidios_share
Aug 19, 2026
oil
Sarah Chen
bullish
target 90.00
86.2130d95.47Hitios_share
Aug 19, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish
target 4,300
4,575.130d4,415.9Hitios_share
Aug 19, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bearish4,580.77d4,647.8Missios_share
Aug 19, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish
target 4,453
4,575.17d4,647.8Hitios_share
Aug 19, 2026
Silver
David Morales
bearish67.137d68.08Missios_share
Aug 19, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish
target 4,900
4,575.130d4,415.9Missios_share
Aug 19, 2026
WTI
David Morales
bullish
target 6.00
86.2130d95.47Hitios_share
Aug 19, 2026
Dow
David Morales
bullish
target 100
52,75930d51,683Hitios_share
Aug 19, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish4,580.721d—Voidios_share
Aug 19, 2026
Dow
James Nakamura
bullish
target 100,000
52,7597d53,464Missios_share
Aug 13, 2026
Bitcoin
Priya Kapoor
neutral63,4097d72,789Missios_share
Aug 11, 2026
USO
David Morales
neutral127.617d130.66Missios_share
Aug 10, 2026
Bitcoin
Priya Kapoor
bullish64,05137d75,899Hitios_share
Aug 10, 2026
S&P 500
James Nakamura
bullish773.0325d770.19Missios_share
Aug 10, 2026
S&P 500
James Nakamura
bullish7,728.221d7,686.14Missios_share
Aug 10, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish
target 4,390
4,448.62d4,469Hitios_share
Aug 10, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish4,427.87d4,473.1Hitios_share
Aug 10, 2026
Silver
David Morales
bullish65.882d65.53Missios_share
Aug 10, 2026
WTI Crude
David Morales
neutral82.302d82.58Hitios_share
Aug 10, 2026
Silver
David Morales
bullish64.867d65.91Hitios_share
Aug 10, 2026
WTI Crude
David Morales
neutral83.237d84.95Missios_share
Aug 10, 2026
S&P 500
Sarah Chen
neutral773.032d772.49Hitios_share
Aug 10, 2026
SPY
Sarah Chen
neutral770.567d772.67Hitios_share
Aug 10, 2026
QQQ
Sarah Chen
bullish718.4530d—Voidios_share
Aug 10, 2026
Nasdaq-100
Sarah Chen
bullish720.8737d704.72Missios_share
Aug 6, 2026
WTI Crude
David Morales
bearish
target 71.00
77.0825d86.31Missios_share
Aug 6, 2026
WTI Crude
David Morales
bearish78.2321d83.54Missios_share
Aug 3, 2026
WTI Crude
Research Team
bearish80.0621d84.98Missios_share
Aug 3, 2026
Silver
Sarah Chen
bullish53.8430d59.07Hitios_share
Aug 3, 2026
Ethereum
Sarah Chen
neutral1,871.857d1,872.63Hitios_share
Aug 3, 2026
Bitcoin
Sarah Chen
neutral64,1807d63,935Hitios_share
Aug 3, 2026
S&P 500
Sarah Chen
bearish771.337d773.03Missios_share
Aug 3, 2026
Gold
Sarah Chen
bullish374.1630d402.78Hitios_share
Aug 3, 2026
Nasdaq-100
James Nakamura
neutral28,7777d29,622Missios_share
Aug 3, 2026
Silver
James Nakamura
neutral58.407d65.88Missios_share
Jul 28, 2026
WTI Crude
David Morales
bearish79.1321d84.42Missios_share
Jul 27, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish
target 4,200
4,078.621d4,473.1Hitios_share
Jul 22, 2026
Silver
David Morales
bullish
target 63.00
60.0321d65.53Hitios_share
Jul 15, 2026
Nasdaq-100
James Nakamura
neutral29,50321d29,488Hitios_share
Jul 15, 2026
XLF
James Nakamura
bullish56.5621d58.00Hitios_share
Jul 15, 2026
Gold
Priya Kapoor
bullish4,066.960d4,340Hitios_share
Jul 15, 2026
Bitcoin
Priya Kapoor
neutral64,77260d78,891Missios_share
Jul 14, 2026
Bitcoin
Priya Kapoor
bearish64,77221d64,180Hitios_share
Jul 14, 2026
Bitcoin
Priya Kapoor
bearish64,5417d66,252Missios_share
Jul 14, 2026
S&P 500
Sarah Chen
bearish7,543.5930d7,798.99Missios_share
Jul 13, 2026
Silver ETF
David Morales
bearish52.1621d52.46Missios_share
Jul 13, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish4,008.730d4,469Hitios_share
Jul 13, 2026
Gold ETF
David Morales
neutral367.1321d371.71Hitios_share
Jul 13, 2026
Gold
David Morales
neutral4,058.37d4,011.8Hitios_share
Jul 13, 2026
Silver
David Morales
bearish
target 57.50
59.047d56.66Hitios_share
Jul 13, 2026
S&P 500 ETF
Sarah Chen
bearish749.1730d772.49Missios_share
Jul 13, 2026
S&P 500
Sarah Chen
bearish7,543.5930d7,748.5Missios_share
Jul 13, 2026
Nasdaq-100
Sarah Chen
bearish29,58630d29,743Missios_share
Jul 10, 2026
Gold
Marcus Webb
neutral4,128.97d4,023Missios_share
Jul 10, 2026
Silver
Marcus Webb
bearish60.307d56.22Hitios_share
Jul 9, 2026
Bitcoin
Marcus Webb
neutral63,8167d64,111Hitios_share

Open calls

DateAssetCallAt callHorizonResultShare
Sep 24, 2026
Bitcoin
Priya Kapoor
neutral83,8097dOpenios_share
Sep 16, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish4,380.6180dOpenios_share
Sep 16, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish4,380.690dOpenios_share
Sep 14, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish
target 4,673
4,333.490dOpenios_share
Sep 10, 2026
CPI
Sarah Chen
bearish25.6030dOpenios_share
Sep 10, 2026
Dow
Sarah Chen
bearish52,57330dOpenios_share
Sep 10, 2026
QQQ
James Nakamura
neutral708.6930dOpenios_share
Sep 10, 2026
SPY
James Nakamura
neutral757.8330dOpenios_share
Sep 10, 2026
GLD
James Nakamura
bullish396.3630dOpenios_share
Sep 10, 2026
SLV
James Nakamura
bullish57.5030dOpenios_share
Sep 10, 2026
BTC-USD
James Nakamura
neutral77,17630dOpenios_share
Sep 10, 2026
ETH-USD
James Nakamura
neutral2,459.2730dOpenios_share
Sep 10, 2026
CPI
Sarah Chen
bearish25.6030dOpenios_share
Sep 7, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish4,476.621dOpenios_share
Sep 7, 2026
Bitcoin
James Nakamura
bullish79,19621dOpenios_share
Sep 4, 2026
10-Year Treasury
Sarah Chen
bullish4.78118dOpenios_share
Sep 4, 2026
Gold
Sarah Chen
bullish4,477.2118dOpenios_share
Sep 3, 2026
10-Year Treasury
Marcus Webb
bullish4.78118dOpenios_share
Sep 3, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish4,477.230dOpenios_share
Sep 3, 2026
10-Year Treasury
Marcus Webb
bullish4.78118dOpenios_share
Sep 3, 2026
10-Year Treasury
James Nakamura
neutral4.78118dOpenios_share
Sep 3, 2026
Gold
Sarah Chen
bullish4,477.230dOpenios_share
Aug 28, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bearish
target 68.00
4,504.130dOpenios_share
Aug 28, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bearish
target 440
4,504.130dOpenios_share
Aug 26, 2026
Dow
Sarah Chen
bearish53,46490dOpenios_share
Aug 20, 2026
Gold
Sarah Chen
bullish
target 4,600
4,500100dOpenios_share
Aug 19, 2026
Gold
David Morales
bullish4,580.790dOpenios_share
Aug 3, 2026
Gold
Research Team
neutral4,110.957dOpenios_share
Aug 3, 2026
Gold
David Morales
neutral4,134.290dOpenios_share
Aug 3, 2026
Gold
Sarah Chen
bullish4,110.990dOpenios_share
Aug 3, 2026
S&P 500
James Nakamura
bullish7,600.590dOpenios_share
Aug 3, 2026
Gold
James Nakamura
bullish4,110.990dOpenios_share
Jul 27, 2026
Global X Uranium ETF
David Morales
bullish38.9590dOpenios_share
Jul 14, 2026
Gold
Sarah Chen
bullish4,058.390dOpenios_share
Jul 13, 2026
Silver
David Morales
bullish57.98180dOpenios_share
Jul 13, 2026
Gold ETF
Sarah Chen
bullish367.1390dOpenios_share
Jul 13, 2026
Gold
Sarah Chen
bullish4,058.390dOpenios_share
Jul 13, 2026
Gold
Sarah Chen
bullish4,058.390dOpenios_share
Prediction Markets desk

Event contracts: what the odds said, and what happened

Every event contract our Prediction Markets desk covers is logged with the venue’s implied probability at the time of coverage, then followed to resolution against the primary source. These are not our calls: the desk analyzes odds and never recommends positions. The Brier score grades the market’s pricing (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip).

Markets covered
93
Resolved
4
Favourite resolved
100%
Mean Brier
0.005
CoveredMarketOdds at coverageOutcomeBrier
Sep 17, 2026Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?
Kalshi · fed
87% yesYes
Priced at 87 percent at coverage; the Sep 16 FOMC hike to 3.75-4.00 percent put the upper bound above 3.75 percent, resolving Yes as the ladder expected.
0.017
Sep 17, 2026Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?
Kalshi · fed
1% yesNo
Priced at 1 percent at coverage; the upper bound settled at 4.00 percent, below the 4.25 strike, resolving No as the ladder expected.
0.000
Sep 17, 2026Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?
Kalshi · fed
2% yesNo
Priced at 2 percent for a rate above 4.00 percent at coverage; the Sep 16 FOMC raised the target range to 3.75-4.00 percent, so the upper bound settled at exactly 4.00 and the above-4.00 strike resolved No.
0.000
Sep 16, 2026Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (9/4-9/11)
Kalshi · elections
94% yesYes
Resolved Yes. Kalshi finalized the above-5.6% contract as yes on Sep 11, 2026. The desk had covered it at 94 cents on Sep 16 pre-settlement data; final settlement paid 100.
0.004
Sep 16, 2026Will the Philadelphia Eagles win by 3 points or more vs the Dallas Cowboys?
Kalshi · sports
55% yesVoid
Market id nfl-spread-example does not exist on the Kalshi venue and the fixture (Eagles vs Cowboys) is scheduled for Week 12 on November 26, 2026. Row is a placeholder with no settleable contract; voided rather than resolved.
—

Awaiting resolution

CoveredMarketOdds at coverageExpected
Sep 28, 2026Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Polymarket · politics
5% yesNov 1, 2026
Sep 28, 2026US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
Polymarket · politics
28% yesNov 1, 2026
Sep 28, 2026US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
Polymarket · politics
4% yesOct 1, 2026
Sep 28, 2026Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Polymarket · politics
0% yesOct 1, 2026
Sep 28, 2026US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
Polymarket · politics
96% yesSep 30, 2026
Sep 28, 2026Will the Eagles beat the Bears?
Kalshi · sports
66% yesSep 29, 2026
Sep 28, 2026Eagles vs. Bears
Polymarket · sports
66% yesSep 29, 2026
Sep 28, 2026Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
Kalshi · macro
49% yesDec 9, 2026
Sep 28, 2026Will September 2026 CPI come in at or above 0.4%?
Kalshi · macro
87% yesOct 14, 2026
Sep 28, 2026Fed decision in October: increase 25bps?
Polymarket · macro
66% yesOct 28, 2026
Sep 28, 2026Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?
Kalshi · macro
66% yesOct 28, 2026
Sep 25, 2026Will the US government be shut down on Dec 12, 2026?
Kalshi · politics
28% yesDec 13, 2026
Sep 25, 2026Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 3 in 2026?
Kalshi · politics
20% yesApr 1, 2027
Sep 25, 2026Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026?
Kalshi · politics
65% yesApr 1, 2027
Sep 25, 2026Federal Appropriations Lapse on October 1?
Polymarket · politics
1% yesOct 2, 2026
Sep 25, 2026Government shutdown by October 1?
Polymarket · politics
0% yesOct 2, 2026
Sep 25, 2026Will the US government be shut down on Oct 1, 2026?
Kalshi · politics
1% yesOct 2, 2026
Sep 25, 2026Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? (OpenAI)
Kalshi · other
9% yesJan 1, 2040
Sep 25, 2026Anthropic IPO before 2027?
Polymarket · other
78% yesJan 1, 2027
Sep 25, 2026Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? (Anthropic)
Kalshi · other
93% yesJan 1, 2040
Sep 24, 2026Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in October 2026?
Kalshi · inflation
24% yesNov 10, 2026
Sep 24, 2026Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in September 2026?
Kalshi · inflation
58% yesOct 14, 2026
Sep 24, 2026Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the December 2026 FOMC meeting?
Kalshi · fed
49% yesDec 9, 2026
Sep 24, 2026Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?
Kalshi · fed
69% yesDec 8, 2026
Sep 24, 2026Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Polymarket · fed
69% yesOct 29, 2026
Sep 24, 2026Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?
Kalshi · fed
32% yesOct 28, 2026
Sep 24, 2026Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?
Kalshi · fed
66% yesOct 28, 2026
Sep 24, 2026Will the Fed funds upper bound be above 4.25% at the end of December 2026?
Kalshi · fed
52% yesDec 8, 2026
Sep 24, 2026Will the Fed funds upper bound be above 4.00% after the October 2026 FOMC meeting?
Kalshi · fed
68% yesOct 29, 2026
Sep 24, 2026Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Polymarket · fed
35% yesOct 29, 2026
Sep 24, 2026Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Polymarket · fed
65% yesOct 29, 2026
Sep 23, 2026Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Polymarket · politics
24% yesJan 1, 2027
Sep 23, 2026US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket · politics
62% yesJan 1, 2027
Sep 23, 2026US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
Polymarket · politics
32% yesNov 1, 2026
Sep 23, 2026US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
Polymarket · politics
8% yesOct 1, 2026
Sep 23, 2026Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Polymarket · fed
54% yesOct 29, 2026
Sep 23, 2026Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?
Kalshi · fed
53% yesOct 28, 2026
Sep 23, 2026Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
Kalshi · fed
42% yesDec 9, 2026
Sep 23, 2026Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in December 2026?
Kalshi · inflation
53% yesJan 13, 2027
Sep 22, 2026NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
Polymarket · politics
22% yesNov 1, 2026
Sep 22, 2026NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket · politics
34% yesJan 1, 2027
Sep 22, 2026Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket · elections
39% yesOct 4, 2026
Sep 22, 2026Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket · elections
61% yesOct 4, 2026
Sep 22, 2026Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket · elections
1% yesOct 4, 2026
Sep 22, 2026Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket · elections
0% yesOct 4, 2026
Sep 21, 2026Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates above 4.25% at the December 2026 FOMC meeting?
Kalshi · fed
41% yesDec 8, 2026
Sep 21, 2026Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates above 4.00% at the October 2026 FOMC meeting?
Kalshi · fed
54% yesOct 28, 2026
Sep 21, 2026Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Polymarket · fed
54% yesOct 28, 2026
Sep 21, 2026September 2026 CPI month-over-month rate
Kalshi · inflation
60% yesOct 14, 2026
Sep 21, 2026Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Polymarket · elections
100% yesSep 30, 2026
Sep 21, 2026Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Polymarket · elections
26% yesSep 30, 2026
Sep 21, 2026Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
Polymarket · elections
1% yesSep 30, 2026
Sep 21, 2026Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Polymarket · elections
70% yesSep 30, 2026
Sep 21, 2026Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
Polymarket · elections
75% yesSep 30, 2026
Sep 21, 2026Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Polymarket · elections
2% yesSep 30, 2026
Sep 21, 2026Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Polymarket · fed
55% yesOct 28, 2026
Sep 21, 2026Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Polymarket · fed
45% yesOct 28, 2026
Sep 21, 2026Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in September 2026?
Kalshi · inflation
24% yesOct 14, 2026
Sep 21, 2026Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in September 2026?
Kalshi · inflation
62% yesOct 14, 2026
Sep 21, 2026Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?
Kalshi · fed
56% yesOct 28, 2026
Sep 18, 2026Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
Kalshi · fed
32% yesDec 9, 2026
Sep 18, 2026Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Polymarket · fed
50% yesOct 28, 2026
Sep 18, 2026Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Polymarket · fed
51% yesOct 28, 2026
Sep 18, 2026Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?
Kalshi · fed
38% yesOct 28, 2026
Sep 18, 2026Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in September 2026?
Kalshi · inflation
38% yesOct 14, 2026
Sep 18, 2026Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in September 2026?
Kalshi · inflation
67% yesOct 14, 2026
Sep 18, 2026Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Polymarket · fed
51% yesOct 28, 2026
Sep 18, 2026Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
Kalshi · fed
84% yesDec 9, 2026
Sep 18, 2026Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?
Kalshi · fed
45% yesOct 28, 2026
Sep 17, 2026Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?
Kalshi · fed
47% yesOct 28, 2026
Sep 17, 2026Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Polymarket · fed
45% yesOct 28, 2026
Sep 17, 2026Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Polymarket · fed
55% yesOct 28, 2026
Sep 17, 2026Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
Kalshi · fed
31% yesDec 9, 2026
Sep 17, 2026Government shutdown by October 1?
Polymarket · politics
1% yesOct 2, 2026
Sep 17, 2026Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
Kalshi · politics
1% yesOct 2, 2026
Sep 16, 2026Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Polymarket · elections
51% yesNov 3, 2026
Sep 16, 2026Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Polymarket · elections
47% yesNov 3, 2026
Sep 16, 2026Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Polymarket · elections
88% yesNov 3, 2026
Sep 16, 2026Which party will win the U.S. Senate in 2026?
Kalshi · elections
53% yesNov 3, 2026
Sep 16, 2026Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Polymarket · elections
51% yesNov 3, 2026
Sep 16, 2026Which party will win the House in 2026?
Polymarket · elections
87% yesNov 3, 2026
Sep 16, 2026Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the January 2027 FOMC meeting?
Kalshi · fed
76% yesJan 27, 2027
Sep 16, 2026Will real GDP increase by more than 3.5% in Q3 2026?
Kalshi · macro
31% yesOct 30, 2026
Sep 16, 2026Will real GDP increase by more than 4.0% in Q3 2026?
Kalshi · macro
15% yesOct 30, 2026
Sep 16, 2026Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in September 2026?
Kalshi · inflation
46% yesOct 14, 2026
Sep 16, 2026Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the January 2027 FOMC meeting?
Kalshi · fed
49% yesJan 27, 2027
Sep 16, 2026Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the January 2027 FOMC meeting?
Kalshi · fed
18% yesJan 27, 2027
Sep 16, 2026Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in September 2026?
Kalshi · inflation
17% yesOct 14, 2026

How scoring works

A call is a specific, falsifiable claim in a published article: an asset, a direction, a time horizon, and where available an explicit price target. It is logged with the price at publication (the benchmark) and scored exactly once, at horizon expiry, against the market price at that time.

With a stated target, a bullish call is a hit if the price reaches or exceeds the target, and a bearish call if it falls to or below it. Without a target, a bullish call is a hit if the price is above the benchmark at expiry, a bearish call if below, and a neutral call if the price stays within two percent of the benchmark. Calls that become unscoreable (a data gap or a retracted article) are marked void and excluded from the hit rate, but stay visible.

Scored rows are immutable: the API rejects any attempt to re-score a settled call. Every row links to the article that made the call, so the claim can be checked in its original context.

This ledger is an accountability record, not a performance claim. The calls shown do not represent an actual portfolio or any investment product: hit rates ignore position sizing, transaction costs, dividends, and timing, and past results are not indicative of future outcomes. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, or a suggestion that acting on any call was or will be profitable. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.

The event-contract table is a separate record with a different subject: it grades the market’s implied probability at the time our desk covered it, never a call of ours. Odds are reported as expectations; election odds are not endorsements and sports rows describe market structure only. Event contracts are regulated differently by jurisdiction and nothing here is a recommendation to trade them.