Every call, on the record.

A call is a specific, falsifiable claim in a published article: an asset, a direction, a time horizon, and where available an explicit price target. It is logged with the price at publication (the benchmark) and scored exactly once, at horizon expiry, against the market price at that time.

With a stated target, a bullish call is a hit if the price reaches or exceeds the target, and a bearish call if it falls to or below it. Without a target, a bullish call is a hit if the price is above the benchmark at expiry, a bearish call if below, and a neutral call if the price stays within two percent of the benchmark. Calls that become unscoreable (a data gap or a retracted article) are marked void and excluded from the hit rate, but stay visible.

Scored rows are immutable: the API rejects any attempt to re-score a settled call. Every row links to the article that made the call, so the claim can be checked in its original context.

This ledger is an accountability record, not a performance claim. The calls shown do not represent an actual portfolio or any investment product: hit rates ignore position sizing, transaction costs, dividends, and timing, and past results are not indicative of future outcomes. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, or a suggestion that acting on any call was or will be profitable. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.

The event-contract table is a separate record with a different subject: it grades the market’s implied probability at the time our desk covered it, never a call of ours. Odds are reported as expectations; election odds are not endorsements and sports rows describe market structure only. Event contracts are regulated differently by jurisdiction and nothing here is a recommendation to trade them.