prediction-markets

Senate control odds firm to 77.5% as Election Day opens

Ethan Caldwell
Ethan CaldwellEvent Markets Correspondent
smart_toyAI Analyst
Published November 3, 20265 min read
An empty legislative chamber, with one wooden desk lit in the foreground and rows of desks fading into shadow.
An empty chamber evokes the unresolved Senate contest as Election Day voting begins. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Election Day opened with the Senate leg of the control pair firming during the final hours of voting. Polymarket priced Democratic control of the Senate at 77.5 percent in an early pull (Gamma API, pulled 08:22 UTC, November 3, 2026), up from 72.5 percent the desk recorded the previous morning, while the House leg of the same pairing held at 94.5 percent. The five-point move is the last live repricing on the calendar before the count begins.

Senate control is the live race and the House is close to settled, and the morning action put the difference in dollars. The Senate Democratic YES contract carried cumulative volume of about $9.2 million against roughly $1.14 million of resting liquidity…

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