Prediction markets turn a question with a yes-or-no answer into a contract that trades between 0 and 100 cents. The price is the crowd's probability. This hub collects our coverage of election, Fed and data markets on Polymarket and Kalshi, and explains how we read them.
A contract that pays $1 if an event happens and trades at 63 cents is the market saying the event is about 63% likely. That reading is only as good as the market behind it: a liquid contract with tight spreads and steady volume is a real forecast, a thin one can be moved by a single trader. Our pieces always report the volume and the spread next to the price, because an odds move on no volume is not news.
Prices are also shaped by the rules. Resolution criteria, the deadline, the source a contract settles against, and whether a market is denominated in dollars or a stablecoin all change what a price is really measuring. Reading the fine print before the odds is most of the job.
Election contracts are the deepest markets on both platforms and the ones with the longest track record. Their edge over polls is speed: they update the moment a debate ends or a result posts, while a poll takes days. Their weakness is the same one polls have, a small set of traders can share a bias, and in off-cycle or foreign elections the pool of informed money is thin. Our election coverage compares the odds with the polling average and the betting history of the same contract, not just the headline price.
Ladder markets, where one contract exists per candidate or per vote-share bracket, let you read the whole distribution rather than one number. Watching which brackets gain and lose share is usually more informative than the favorite's price alone.
Kalshi lists contracts on the federal funds rate, CPI brackets, payrolls and other scheduled prints. They compete with the rates market itself: fed funds futures and overnight index swaps price the same policy path with far more money behind them. Where the two disagree, the futures are usually right and the event market is usually catching up. The value of the event contracts is in questions the rates market does not price directly, like the exact CPI bracket or a specific month's payroll range.
Data contracts settle against a single official release, so the correct comparison is to the economist consensus for that release. A bracket market that leans away from consensus is a tradeable disagreement; one that matches it is simply consensus with a price tag.
Kalshi is a US-regulated exchange that settles in dollars and lists contracts on elections, economic data, the Fed and other events. Polymarket is a crypto-native market that settles in a dollar stablecoin and has historically served a global user base. Both quote the same kind of 0-to-100-cent yes/no contract; liquidity, available markets and who may trade differ.
They update faster and aggregate more information in liquid races, and the academic record on major elections is good. They are not magic: thin markets, shared trader biases and rule quirks all produce prices that are not probabilities. Treat a liquid market as a strong input alongside polls and fundamentals, not a replacement.
A set of contracts covering every outcome of one question, for example one contract per vote-share bracket or per Fed rate level. Because the prices across the ladder should sum to roughly 100 cents, the ladder shows the market's full distribution, and shifts between neighbouring brackets tell you how conviction is moving.
Usually a large order in a thin market, or traders repositioning ahead of an expected event. Check the volume: a 10-point move on a few hundred dollars of trading is noise, the same move on heavy volume is information.
Kalshi priced Buffalo at 39% before its October 12, 2026 game against Los Angeles; a 37-34 overtime finish shows why one result cannot grade market calibration.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Kalshi’s lead September CPI threshold contract fell to 58.5%, while neighboring odds bracket a narrow range before the BLS release on October 14.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Kalshi puts the September CPI threshold at 58.5%, while the last published BLS report recorded a 0.4% monthly rise in August. The contract settles on the next print, not the annual inflation rate.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Polymarket's October Fed-cut contract rose from 0.35% to 0.55% across the week, while the CFTC's October 9 proposal put event-contract definitions back in focus. The odds remain low beside a 4.00% fed-funds upper bound and September payroll growth of 29,000.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced two actions on October 9, 2026 that pull event contracts toward the swap definition while explicitly carving out casino-style wagers, redrawing the regulatory line for Kalshi, Polymarket and other prediction-market venues.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Polymarket priced a 29% chance of Supreme Court review by year-end on October 9, as the NFL and other groups filed briefs in a case over sports event contracts.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Polymarket priced an October Fed hold at 84.5% on October 9, while the October 8 minutes said most officials expected another increase by year end.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Kalshi's December rate market moved higher after the Fed minutes detailed persistent inflation risks and a policy debate still open to incoming data.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Polymarket’s October 15 ceasefire market fell from 90.5% to 86.5% by 07:44 UTC on October 8, while US and Iranian claims about Hormuz remained sharply different.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Kalshi’s OpenAI and Google contracts show 85% and 78% midpoints with no reported trading, while the venue API describes a settlement test that differs from its CFTC filing.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Polymarket priced a 25 basis point RBI hike at 77.5% on October 6; the October 7 decision raised the repo rate to 5.50% and settled the contract YES.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Kalshi launched the US500, the first stock-index perpetual on a US venue, a cash-settled contract on the MerQube US Large Cap Index deemed CFTC-approved October 2. What the funding model means for CME and ICE.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
A lead at the ballot box is not an 84% vote share. First-round totals, exchange contracts and the real each answer a different question before Brazil votes again.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Polymarket put a 25-basis-point RBI hike at 78% on October 6 after a late Monday repricing, though the policy meeting does not announce its decision until October 7.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
A new Kalshi filing defines a Dow closing-value contract while its year-end ladder shows a wide spread around the $55,000 and $56,000 thresholds.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Brazil’s October 4 first-round count put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead by 1.89 points, while Polymarket priced him at 81.15% for the October 25 runoff.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
After an inflation-driven reversal and a weak payroll print, Kalshi’s October hike odds fell sharply. The next test is September CPI on October 14.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Judge Pacold blocked Illinois sports-licensing against Kalshi and Coinbase, finding event contracts likely swaps. See what this means for prediction markets.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
On October 2, Kalshi priced a 49% chance that September payroll growth exceeded 90,000, down from 56% shortly after midnight, as traders weighed ADP's stronger private-sector report against a 95,000 consensus forecast.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Polymarket's Brazil winner market flipped to Flavio Bolsonaro at 62.9 cents on the morning of October 1, up from 56.7 cents three days before the Sunday first round, while a Futura poll put the senator ahead of Lula 42.2 to 39.4.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Iran's cabinet has the latest US ceasefire response in front of it while Polymarket prices the ceasefire holding through the end of October at 57.5 cents and the strait reopening by then at 3 cents; the desk's four September ledger calls all settled correctly.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Kalshi's 2028 Taiwan Level 4 advisory leg jumped from 13 to 22 cents on September 30 after a Treaty of San Francisco display was pulled from the Trump-Xi archives visit, and the ladder's term structure now puts the risk squarely after 2027.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
The 10-year Treasury sits at 5.25%, highest since 2007. August PCE lands today as Kalshi prices a 70% chance of an October Fed hike. Here's what to watch.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
Kalshi's round-one ladder prices Lula at 73.5 cents to win October 4 yet Flavio Bolsonaro at 56.5 cents to be president, an implied 59 to 41 runoff that sits nineteen points from Monday's BTG/Nexus and Quaest fieldwork.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst