Daily coverage · James Nakamura

Equities

Earnings, sector rotation and what the index is really pricing.

Line chart of S&P 500, last 90 days on a dark background

S&P Pullback Deepens to 2.4% as Defensives Lead Into FOMC

SPY fell 0.45% Monday, leaving the S&P 500 proxy 2.4% below its 52-week high as defensive sectors led and markets priced an 88% chance of a Fed hike.

James Nakamura smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 15, 20265 MIN READ

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Equities

Defensive Rotation Into a Hawkish Fed: Why Tech Led the Declines and the VIX Spiked

Monday's tape did not look like a market dumping risk. It looked like a market quietly repositioning for a rate decision it already expects. SPY, the exchange-traded fund that tracks the broad large-cap index, closed at $760.88, down 0.45%, as money rotated out of the long-duration growth names that carried the recent rally and into lower-beta healthcare, staples, and communication services. The rotation, the jump in the VIX to 17.10, and the widening gap below SPY's 52-week high all trace to the same catalyst: the FOMC decision due tomorrow, September 16, which Kalshi implied odds now put at an 88% probability of a 25 basis point hike.

James Nakamura smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 15, 20269 MIN READ

Line chart of S&P 500 on a dark background showing price recovery

Equities

Stocks Bounce After a Four-Day Slide, but a Binary Fed Looms

The S&P 500 ends a four-day slide at 7,656.98 on in-line CPI and Oracle capex, but the relief faces a coin-flip FOMC decision Wednesday. Levels to watch.

James Nakamura smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 14, 20261 MIN READ

Line chart of SPY, last 90 days on a dark background

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Equities

The Post-CPI Relief Rally: Reading SPY's Bounce Into a Binary FOMC

SPY's post-CPI bounce into a binary FOMC: read the breadth signals, the sector rotation, and both hold-or-hike paths with our key levels ahead of Tuesday.

James Nakamura smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 14, 20269 MIN READ

Bar chart ranking sector performance from Communication Services and Consumer Staples gains to Technology losses amid Treasury yield surge

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Equities

Equities Sector Rotation: Opportunities and Risks

Friday's market selloff marked a clear rotation from growth to defensives as Treasury yields surged. Here's what it means for your portfolio and which sectors to watch.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 11, 202612 MIN READ

Line chart of VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) on a dark background

Equities

VIX Jumps 8.4% as Investors Rotate to Defense

VIX surges 8.4% as defensive positioning takes hold, here's what the volatility spike signals about market sentiment

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 11, 20262 MIN READ

Line chart of 10-year Treasury yield over last 90 days showing recent spike

Equities

Small Caps Drop as Yield Spike Triggers Rotation

Small caps fell 1.37% Thursday as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.84%, triggering a rotation away from riskier assets.

James Nakamura smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 10, 20261 MIN READ

Line chart of Russell 2000, last 90 days on a dark background

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Equities

Small Cap Slump Signals Risk-Off Rotation Amid Rising Yields

Small caps slumped 1.37% as Treasury yields rose to 4.84%, signaling risk-off rotation. Energy sector gained while gold diverged from rates. Read our analysis.

James Nakamura smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 10, 20264 MIN READ

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Health Care Plunges 2.5% as Defensive Rotation Accelerates

Health care stocks led a sector rotation out of defensive plays as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.81%. Here's what the move means for positioning.

James Nakamura smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 9, 202610 MIN READ

Line chart of VIX Index, last 90 days on a dark background

Equities

Market Internals Show Negative Breadth, VIX Rises Modestly

SPY fell 0.55% as eight of eleven S&P 500 sectors declined. VIX rose to 15.72, health care slumped 2.52%, while tech and energy gained.

James Nakamura smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 9, 20262 MIN READ

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NVIDIA's Groq Racks Deploy as AI Inference Race Accelerates

NVIDIA is shipping hardware from its $20 billion Groq acquisition, and the first deployment will arrive at a single cloud provider later this year. The Groq 3 LPX rack delivers 3,400 tokens per second in inference workloads...

Sep 8, 20265 MIN READ

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Equities

Gap Store Closures and Old Navy Strategy Headwinds

Gap Inc. has closed 350 stores and faces challenges with its Old Navy brand as retail sales decline and consumer sentiment remains depressed. The stock underperforms the retail sector.

James Nakamura smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 8, 20262 MIN READ

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