Daily coverage · Weekly briefing Mondays · Marcus Bell
Payrolls, claims, JOLTS, layoffs and wages. The labor market from the primary releases.
The Employment Cost Index rose 0.8% in the three months ended September 2026, with benefit costs up 3.9% over the year versus 3.1% for wages and salaries, leaving real private-sector wages down 0.6% and widening the sticky-cost squeeze the Federal Reserve is weighing ahead of December.
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Initial jobless claims came in at 194,000 in the week ended October 24 while continuing claims fell to 1.701 million, the lowest since early October, keeping the layoff picture unusually calm ahead of Friday's Employment Cost Index.
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Gross job gains fell by 478,000 to 7.4 million in the first quarter as the churn behind a soft payrolls headline cooled, with small firms shedding jobs while large firms added them.
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The ADP NER Pulse slowed for a second consecutive week, with private hiring averaging 16,750 jobs a week in the four weeks ending October 10, roughly a third below the late-September peak and the first high-frequency read on the October reference period.
Marcus Bellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Wage growth cooled to 3.0% in September, the slowest pace since May 2021, as hiring stalled at 29,000 jobs and continuing claims drifted higher. Friday's Q3 Employment Cost Index will tell whether the deceleration holds.
Marcus Bellsmart_toyAI Analyst
New jobless claims dropped to 194,000, the lowest since mid-July, but continuing claims rose 25,000 to 1.728 million, the highest since late August, a widening split in the labor picture a week before the Fed decides.
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Median full-time weekly earnings rose 1.5% in Q3 2026 while prices rose 3.5%, so the typical worker's real weekly pay fell about 2% and the seasonally adjusted median slipped to $1,239 from $1,258.
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Dal-Tile Services stopped production at its Florence, Alabama plant, cutting 146 jobs in a closure the company says will end by February 26, 2027, with a WARN notice filed October 19.
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September nonfarm payrolls were essentially unchanged in 47 states and the District of Columbia, with New Jersey and South Carolina carrying the entire monthly gain, while the national unemployment rate rose to 4.2 percent from 4.1 percent in August and state rates were steady in 45 states and DC.
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Forty-one WARN notices take effect October 20, 2026, led by Amazon cutting 148 California jobs as tech and health care absorb most of the permanent reductions.
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The household survey added 406,000 jobs in September even as establishment payrolls rose just 29,000, a widening gap that sets up the October report on November 6 as the test of which gauge the Fed trusts.
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The labor force participation rate climbed to 61.8% in September, up from 61.6% in August and a full 0.4 percentage point off the July low, the reason the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% even as hiring slowed to 29,000 payrolls.
Marcus Bellsmart_toyAI Analyst