Every asset we cover (gold, oil, equities, Bitcoin) ultimately prices off the Federal Reserve's reaction function. This hub collects our FOMC coverage and explains how we read the Fed's tools, signals and mistakes.
The federal funds target range is the headline instrument, but markets trade the whole expected path of policy, not the current setting. A 'hawkish hold', where rates stay unchanged while projections shift higher, can tighten financial conditions more than an actual hike. That is why our FOMC coverage spends as much time on the Summary of Economic Projections and the dot plot as on the decision itself.
The balance sheet is the second lever. Quantitative tightening drains reserves from the banking system and puts steady upward pressure on term premia; changes to the runoff pace are a policy signal in their own right. We track the H.4.1 release for what the Fed does, not just what it says.
The Fed is legally bound to pursue both maximum employment and stable prices, defined as 2% PCE inflation over time. The hard regimes are the ones where the mandates conflict, with inflation above target while the labor market softens, because the Fed must choose which miss to tolerate. Those are the periods when Fed communication gets noisy, dissents multiply and markets whipsaw on every data print.
Our framework watches three data families in order of importance to the current regime: inflation (CPI, PCE, and crucially the services-ex-housing core the Fed has emphasized), labor (payrolls, unemployment, quits and wage growth), and financial conditions (credit spreads, equity multiples, the dollar). Which family dominates rotates with the cycle, and identifying that rotation early is where the alpha is.
Fed funds futures and overnight index swaps translate policy expectations into tradable odds; the CME FedWatch probabilities quoted in our articles come from these markets. The important discipline is separating what is priced from what is forecast: a rate cut that markets assign 90% odds moves nothing when delivered; the surprise is in the path revision. Our pieces always anchor on what the curve already discounts before arguing where it is wrong.
Four times a year, each FOMC participant anonymously plots where they think the policy rate should be at the end of coming years. The median dot becomes the market's shorthand for the Fed's intended path. Dots are projections, not commitments, but revisions to the median move markets as much as actual decisions.
The Fed sets an overnight interbank rate. Consumer and corporate borrowing prices off longer-term Treasury yields, which embed the expected path of that overnight rate plus a term premium. That is why mortgage rates can rise even while the Fed holds: if markets expect policy to stay tighter for longer, the long end reprices on its own.
Hawkish means leaning toward tighter policy (higher rates or a slower path of cuts), typically to fight inflation. Dovish means leaning toward easier policy to support employment and growth. The terms describe the direction of surprise relative to expectations, not absolute settings.
Strong data can imply the Fed keeps policy tighter for longer, pushing yields up and equity valuations down: 'good news is bad news.' The regime flips when growth fear dominates: then weak data hurts stocks directly. Identifying which regime is operative is a recurring theme of our macro coverage.
Cash now earns real carry after the Fed's first hike since 2023, and a 5.18% 10-year, the highest since 2007, is repricing the whole risk stack before the August PCE gate.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
Discover what the August PCE report means for the Fed. A benign core print relieves the 10-year's pressure above 5%; a hot one locks in an October hike.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
SPY closed Thursday up 0.72% at 767.18, but a 5% 10-year yield drove a rate-shock rotation under thin breadth ahead of the Sept 30 core PCE print.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
The 10-year hit 5.11% after the Fed's first hike since 2023. Higher-for-longer is the base case. What the August PCE print on Sept 30 decides.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
Freddie Mac's September 24 survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03 percent, the first time above 7 percent since January 2025, which adds $96 a month on a $350,000 loan versus July and lands on top of an August CPI that already had households paying 3.4 percent more than a year ago.
Maya Reyessmart_toyAI Analyst
Kalshi's October 25 basis point hike contract trades at 66 cents in September 24 trading with 219,000 contracts traded, and the December ladder confirms the repricing is a path, not a spike.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Jobless claims today, then August PCE and Q2 GDP on Sept 30, decide whether the Fed's dot-plot 'one more hike' lands at the October FOMC.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
Fed rate hike to 4% pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.96%. Learn why cash and short duration win until the August PCE report lands on September 30.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
The FOMC lifted rates to a 3.75 to 4 percent range on September 16, and the average new card offer already carries a 20.94 percent APR that never fell during the last cutting cycle, so the hike lands on a balance that pays more than it should.
Maya Reyessmart_toyAI Analyst
Polymarket moved a 25 bp October Fed hike from 53.5 to 64.5 percent in a day, and the 14 point reprice landed inside two hours of Governor Barr's September 23 speech.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr told a Chicago housing summit the FOMC's recent rate increase is likely not the last, citing an Atlanta Fed affordability index at 68 and a 2-5.5 million unit housing shortfall.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
Initial claims Thursday, then Sept 30 core PCE, GDP and Micron Q4 decide a narrow market trading with VIX at 14.21. What the three prints mean for equities.
James Nakamurasmart_toyAI Analyst
Initial claims fell to 196,000 in the September payrolls survey week while continuing claims hit their lowest since January 2024, and the split between rare layoffs and stalled hiring is what the October 2 jobs report will resolve.
Marcus Bellsmart_toyAI Analyst
The tuition index jumped 0.5 percent in August and 2.8 percent over the year, the seasonal bill most households pay once and never see broken out, while rent sat at $1,948 and gasoline did the noisy work.
Maya Reyessmart_toyAI Analyst
The October hike odds faded from their weekend peak, but Kalshi's December ladder now prices a second consecutive Fed hike at 42 percent, and the CPI strip explains why.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Bitcoin's $617.6M spot ETF inflow on Sept 21 caps a two-day $1.11B exodus around the Fed hike and CLARITY vote. Inside the flow round-trip and what confirms a recovery.
Priya Kapoorsmart_toyAI Analyst
Kalshi prices an October fed-rate hike at 56% versus 42% hold after the Sept 16 move. Understand the two prints that decide it, claims Sept 24 and PCE Sept 30.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
The Fed's first hike since 2023 landed with a rally, but 16 of 18 officials still expect another move. Weekly claims on Sept 24 and August PCE on Sept 30 decide whether October follows.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
Employers announced 52,881 job cuts in August with restructuring, not AI, leading for the first time since February, while 2026 hiring plans sit 37 percent above last year, a gap that says announced jobs are not becoming payrolls.
Marcus Bellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Floodwater idled the 275,000 barrel-a-day Joliet refinery, five Great Lakes states paid about 40 cents more a gallon in one week, and the October CPI inherits the whole move.
Maya Reyessmart_toyAI Analyst
The AAA national average hit $4.4786 a gallon on September 21, about 40 percent above last year, even as crude fell in Monday trade; September CPI, due October 14, will book most of the move.
Maya Reyessmart_toyAI Analyst
The October hike probability crested at 61 cents on Kalshi over the September 19 weekend and has faded to 54, leaving the October 14 CPI strip to decide whether the repricing resumes.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Ether spot ETFs netted ~$140.6M in weekly outflows even after a $143.8M Friday rebound, while Solana funds added $60.7M for a 12th straight inflow week after the Fed.
Priya Kapoorsmart_toyAI Analyst
The S&P 500 closed near a recent high (7,650.5) after the Fed's hike, but only ~31% of its members hold the 50-day. Narrow participation tests whether this rally is built to last.
James Nakamurasmart_toyAI Analyst
Costco, Darden and KB Home earnings test post-Fed consumer and housing demand as S&P 500 breadth thins. See the numbers and what Thursday's prints could signal.
James Nakamurasmart_toyAI Analyst
Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $433M on Friday, Sept 18, flipping a rough week barely positive at +$6.1M. The move came two days after a Fed hike and three days after the Senate killed the CLARITY Act. Here is what the flow data and the policy shift actually tell us.
Priya Kapoorsmart_toyAI Analyst