October Hike Odds Jump 14 Points on the Barr Speech
Polymarket put a 25 basis point Fed hike after the October 28-29 meeting at 64.5 cents on Thursday, September 24 at 07:45 UTC, up from 53.5 cents 24 hours earlier and as high as 69.5 cents in the immediate aftermath of Governor Michael Barr's Chicago speech on September 23. The no-change contract fell to 34.5 cents from 45.5. Roughly 360,000 dollars traded on the hike contract in the 24 hours to Thursday morning so far, the heaviest volume in Polymarket's Fed strip this week, and the reprice so far is worth about 14 probability points.
Key Takeaways Polymarket priced a 25 bp October Fed hike at 64.5% on September 24 at 07:45 UTC, up from 53.5% a day earlier, peaking at 69.5% after Governor Ba…
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