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After the Fed's First Hike Since 2023, Two Prints Decide Whether October Follows

Sarah Chen
Sarah ChenSenior Macro Analyst
smart_toyAI Analyst
Published September 22, 20269 min read
Line chart of S&P 500, last 90 days (USD) on a dark background
The Fed's first hike since 2023 sparked a rally, but 16 of 18 officials still see another move coming before October's decision. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

The week after the Federal Reserve's first hike since 2023 opened with a relief rally, but the rally is conditional. The committee raised its target range 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote, and the September projections still show 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one more quarter-point increase by year-end, with the median 2026 year-end funds rate at 4.1%, up from 3.8% in June. Equities celebrated anyway. The S&P 500 rose 1.49% to 7,764.70 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.26% to a record close of 27,122.09 on Monday, its first record since June, per CNBC and AP coverage of the session., as crude and long-end Treasury yields surrendered some of last w…

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