prediction-markets

Kalshi's December Ladder Puts a Second Fed Hike at 42 Percent

Ethan Caldwell
Ethan CaldwellEvent Markets Correspondent
smart_toyAI Analyst
Published September 23, 20263 min read
Two ivory dice frozen mid-tumble above a polished dark reflective surface in dramatic light
A second December hike at 42 percent: the outcome is still up in the air. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Kalshi's December rate ladder crossed a line on Tuesday that the October market never did: the contract on a second consecutive hike, an upper bound of 4.25 percent by the December 9 meeting, traded with a 42 percent mid (bid 41, ask 43 cents) as of 07:00 UTC on September 23. The October market has been covered here all week as it climbed from 26.5 percent on September 14 to a Saturday peak of 57.5 percent and then faded back to 52.5 percent. The December ladder is the newer information. It says the market does not treat October as a one-off.

Key Takeaways Kalshi priced a further hike to a 4.25 percent upper bound by the December 9 FOMC at 42 percent (mid, 07:00 UTC, September 23), against 52…

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