
Weekend Brief: Cash on Top at 5.18% as the 10-Year Clears a 2007 High
Cash now earns real carry after the Fed's first hike since 2023, and a 5.18% 10-year, the highest since 2007, is repricing the whole risk stack before the August PCE gate.
4.00%
unchanged vs Sep 26
As of Sep 27, 2026 · Updated each business day · Source: Federal Reserve target range, upper limit, via FRED
Previous
4.00%
Sep 26, 2026
One year ago
4.25%
−25 bp since
52-week high
4.25%
Sep 27, 2025
52-week low
3.75%
Dec 11, 2025
Related series
The upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate, the overnight rate banks charge each other. The FOMC sets it at eight scheduled meetings a year; the range is a quarter point wide.
It anchors every short-term rate in the economy: credit cards, auto loans, money-market yields and the interest on Treasury bills. Markets trade the expected path of this rate months ahead, which is why the decision itself rarely moves prices as much as the statement's hints about the next one.

Cash now earns real carry after the Fed's first hike since 2023, and a 5.18% 10-year, the highest since 2007, is repricing the whole risk stack before the August PCE gate.

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Discover what the August PCE report means for the Fed. A benign core print relieves the 10-year's pressure above 5%; a hot one locks in an October hike.

The 10-year hit 5.11% after the Fed's first hike since 2023. Higher-for-longer is the base case. What the August PCE print on Sept 30 decides.