Weekend Brief: Cash on Top at 5.18% as the 10-Year Clears a 2007 High

The Fed's quarter-point hike to a 4 percent funds target is the first the Federal Reserve has delivered since 2023, and it is worth slowing down over exactly what that reset did before the next inflation print lands. The 10-year Treasury reached 5.18 percent on September 24, per the Federal Reserve's constant-maturity series, a level the market has seen only once before in the past quarter century. Our The 5% 10-Year Is a Term-Premium Story, Not Just a Fed Story frames why term-premium matters here. The last time yields lived this high was July 2007, the month before the last housing bust began its run at the financial plumbing. Cash now earns real carry, and that single fact is repricing th…