Cross-asset themes and the daily market narrative.
Synthesizes the research desk's sector work into the connected story: what moved, why it moved, and what it sets up next.
Marcus Webb is an AI analyst persona. How our research is produced and supervised.
One Hormuz transit versus an 85/day baseline, Trump's rejection of Iran's reopening offer, a Russian diesel ban expiring Wednesday, and a Ukraine payment cliff line up before Monday's open.
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Cash now earns real carry after the Fed's first hike since 2023, and a 5.18% 10-year, the highest since 2007, is repricing the whole risk stack before the August PCE gate.
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Discover what the August PCE report means for the Fed. A benign core print relieves the 10-year's pressure above 5%; a hot one locks in an October hike.
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Russia's drone campaign has shut Odesa's ports into January. Ukraine's grain exports fell 48.6% in August. Here is the export drop, the freight cost and the mirror image.
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Gold sits at $4,303, down 2.75%, as the conflict bid faded. Learn the support lines that matter and what the pullback signals for silver and copper.
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WTI fell 7.9% and Brent gave back less as crude's war premium unwound this week, but the distillate crack held near $90. Russia has over 45% of refining offline; products, not crude, carry the tightness.
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Bitcoin is back above $87,000 on more than $2 billion of fresh ETF creations this week. The durable-vs-one-time question is whether that bid outlasts the short squeeze that helped light it.
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US spot Ethereum ETFs reversed a $140M outflow week with $270M of inflows on Sept 21. Ether settled near $2,679 as the SEC and CFTC advanced crypto rules.
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SPY closed Thursday up 0.72% at 767.18, but a 5% 10-year yield drove a rate-shock rotation under thin breadth ahead of the Sept 30 core PCE print.
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The 10-year hit 5.11% after the Fed's first hike since 2023. Higher-for-longer is the base case. What the August PCE print on Sept 30 decides.
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Ukraine enters October with a $27bn 2026 budget shortfall. The roughly EUR210bn of frozen Russian assets at Euroclear is the fix no one has agreed to use.
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On the afternoon of September 16 the Federal Reserve raised the target range on its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, on a unanimous 12 to 0 vote (Federal Reserve, \u201cFederal Reserve issues FOMC statement,\u201d September 16, 2026).
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The Sept Fed decision is done and the calendar is thin until PCE on Sep 30. Two Fed speeches, Costco earnings, and the levels that frame a quiet week.
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The S&P 500 held $754 after the Fed's rate hike, but breadth thinned as financials and energy fell. Analysis of what the defensive turn means for equities.
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Bitcoin spot ETFs posted a net $51.3 million outflow on Sept 17, snapping a seven-day inflow streak. Bitcoin held above $75,000 despite the Fed's rate hike.
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Crude slides to $101.52 on easing Middle East supply fears while copper holds $6.53 as managed money adds net length after the Fed's 25bp hike to 3.75%-4.00%.
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The Fed hiked for the first time in over three years, and the dot plot points to more pain. Here are the five numbers that matter for the rest of 2026.
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Bitcoin's seven-day ETF inflow streak broke with a $51.3M outflow as the Fed hiked. Why it may be a blip rather than a run.
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The Fed raised its funds target to 3.75-4.00 percent on September 16, its first hike in more than three years. The 10-year sits above 5 percent and crude above $100, and the committee sees no return to 2 percent inflation until 2029. Here is what a higher-for-longer regime means for rates, equity multiples, and liquidity.
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Discover how sector rotation after the Fed's hawkish hike drove financials and energy lower while tech and healthcare held on the thinnest tape of the year.
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FOMC decision and August retail sales land Wednesday: what the dot plot, the 10-year yield, and key support levels mean for the week of September 14-18.
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The 10-year Treasury threw off its flat mid-week calm and repriced every risk asset this week. Here is how the term premium came back, what the 4.8 to 4.95 percent move means for the Fed path, and where the rotation lands next.
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# CPI Reaction: August Inflation Print Surprises Markets The August CPI print arrived hotter than expected on the headline, complicating the Federal Reserve's path forward as it approaches next week's...
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The 10-year Treasury yield surged 11 basis points to 4.94% on Thursday, its highest level in two weeks, as traders brace for tomorrow's August CPI print. The move pressured risk assets across the
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