Yields Spike 11 Basis Points as Markets Await CPI Print

The 10-year Treasury yield surged 11 basis points to 4.94% on Thursday, its highest level in two weeks, as traders brace for tomorrow's August CPI print. The move pressured risk assets across the board, with the S&P 500 (SPY) sliding 0.60% to $757.83 and the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) dropping 1.06% to $708.69.

Technology stocks led the decline as higher discount rates compressed forward earnings multiples. The VIX spiked 8.4% to 17.84, reflecting elevated near-term uncertainty. Market positioning is defensive ahead of the data: Treasury futures are pricing an 85% probability that the Fed holds rates steady at next week's FOMC meeting, but the trajectory of future cuts remains data-dependent.

Consensus estimates call for a modest 0.2% monthly increase in CPI, which would keep year-over-year inflation just above 3.0%. A hotter print could force a hawkish repricing, pushing yields toward 5.0% and testing support levels on equities. Conversely, a softer reading might ease pressure on stocks but could reignite gold's recent rally, despite today's 1.73% pullback to $4,417.80.

Cryptocurrencies showed resilience despite the risk-off tone, with Bitcoin holding above $77k support. The decoupling from equities suggests crypto is trading on its own catalysts rather than macro sentiment.

Key levels to watch: SPY support at $755, with $740 on a break; QQQ support at $700; the 10-year yield approaching 5.0% may attract institutional buyers.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.</p><p>Related reading: <a href="/research/cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11">CPI Preview: Positioning and Risk Scenarios for the August Inflation Print</a>, <a href="/research/gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts">Gold and Commodities Outlook Amid Macro Shifts</a>, <a href="/research/equities-sector-rotation-opportunities-risks-september-2026">Equities Sector Rotation: Opportunities and Risks</a></p>