macro

Week Ahead: FOMC Decision, Retail Sales Take Center Stage

Published September 13, 20266 min read
Line chart of 10-Year Treasury Yield, last 90 days on a dark background

The Federal Reserve owns the week of September 14-18, and it quietly enters it with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.97%, one basis point from a new 52-week high. Wednesday's FOMC decision, delivered with updated Summary of Economic Projections and a rare same-day retail sales print, gives markets their clearest rates signal since July's hawkish 9-3 hold.

Key Takeaways FOMC rate decision and projections land Wednesday, September 16 at 18:00 UTC (2:00 pm ET); consensus is a hold at 3.50%-3.75%. August advance retail sales print at 12:30 UTC Wednesday, consensus +0.8% m/m headline after July's -0.6%; the control group is forecast at +0.5%. The 10-year yield closed Friday at 4.97%, resistance at…

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