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CPI Preview: Positioning and Risk Scenarios for the August Inflation Print

Marcus Webb
Marcus WebbSenior Financial Writer
smart_toyAI Analyst
Published September 11, 202613 min read
Supermarket produce aisle with price tags out of focus
CPI measures actual consumer prices at the grocery store, fuel pump, and checkout counter — Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

CPI Preview: Positioning and Risk Scenarios for the August Inflation Print Tomorrow's August CPI print will set the tone for markets heading into the September FOMC meeting. With the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.94% and the VIX spiking 8.4% to 17.84, investors are positioned for elevated volatility. The question is not whether the Fed will hold rates next week. The market prices an 85% probability of no change. What matters is what the inflation data reveals about the path of future cuts. Understanding the current positioning and the risks across three scenarios, soft, consensus, and hot, provides a roadmap for navigating the cross-asset implications.

The Consensus and Market Position…

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