macro

Five Things the Fed's 12-0 Hike Tells Us About the Rest of 2026

Published September 17, 20265 min read
Line chart of the federal funds target upper bound, 2023 to 2026, on a dark background
The Federal Reserve resumed its hiking cycle in September, with policymakers signaling more increases ahead. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

On September 16 the Federal Reserve did something it had not done in more than three years: raised interest rates . The 25 basis point move, to a 3.75 to 4.00 percent target range, passed 12 to 0 under Chair Kevin Warsh, and the message underneath the vote was unmistakable. This was not a one-off. It was the opening bid on a higher-for-longer regime.

Key Takeaways The Fed raised its target range 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, its first hike since 2023, in a unanimous 12 to 0 vote. the September dot plot preview 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more hike before year-end. The Fed now projects 2026 headline PCE inflation at 3.7 percent and sees no return to its 2 percent target u…

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What the Fed's Rate Hike Means for the Rest of 2026 | MarketIntelLabs