The Fed Hikes Into a 5% 10-Year: Higher-for-Longer Regime

September 16, 2026, ended more than three years of forward-guidance calm. The Federal Reserve hiked its funds target 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00 percent in a unanimous 12-0 vote under Chair Kevin Warsh, and the committee's own projections now say headline inflation does not return to 2 percent until 2029. The 10-year Treasury sits above 5 percent and crude above $100, and the two together mean real borrowing costs are rising for households, firms, and the federal government at the same time. That is the definition of a higher-for-longer regime, and markets should stop pricing the old world where the Fed rode to the rescue on the next soft print. For a running map of the Fed’s turning point…