macro

The Weekend Brief: A Hiking Fed Meets a Soft Labor Market and a 5% Ten-Year

Published September 20, 202615 min read

Line chart of 10-Year Treasury Yield, last 90 days (%) on a dark background — As the Fed hikes for the first time since 2023 and yields hit multi-decade highs, gold is holding its ground against the old playbook. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

On the afternoon of September 16 the Federal Reserve raised the target range on its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, on a unanimous 12 to 0 vote (Federal Reserve, \u201cFederal Reserve issues FOMC statement,\u201d September 16, 2026). It was the first hike since 2023, and the statement that delivered it was written to say the obvious thing: this is not one and done. Chair Kevin Warsh told the press conference that the economy \u201cappears to be strengthening\u201d but inflation remains too high, and the Summary of Economic Projections published alongside the decision puts the median funds rate at 4.1 percent at the end of both 2026 and 2027, up from 3.8 percent fo…

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