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The Fed Hiked Into a Labor Market That Is Quietly Firming

Published September 17, 20266 min read

Line chart of the US unemployment rate over the last two years on a dark background — The Fed raised rates again even as unemployment fell, openings rose, and payroll growth accelerated. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

At 2 p.m. Eastern on September 16, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, its second hike this year. The decision was unanimous, and the statement justified it on inflation grounds. But the line that matters for this desk is the one describing the labor market: job gains, the FOMC wrote, have "kept pace with the workforce." Translation: the central bank is tightening into a labor market that is not deteriorating at all. It is quietly firming.

Key Takeaways The FOMC raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4.00 percent on September 16, 2026, citing inflation, while describing labor demand as merely keeping pace with the workforce. U…

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