macro

What the August PCE Report Means for the Fed's Next Move

Published September 25, 20263 min read

Neoclassical Federal Reserve building facade in dramatic dusk light against a deep navy sky — The Federal Reserve: the September 30 PCE print is the next data point in its rate path. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

If you are hunting for the next catalyst behind the higher-for-longer regime, stop watching an abstract FOMC meeting date. It is pinned to the calendar for Wednesday, September 30, at 12:30 UTC: the Bureau of Economic Analysis's August Personal Income and Outlays report, the release that carries the Fed's preferred inflation gauge . The Cleveland Fed's nowcast, updated September 24, puts headline PCE at +0.34% month over month and +3.78% year over year, with core PCE at +0.27% and +3.40%. The fourth number is the one that should be on your screen: the annual core rate would accelerate from July's +3.34%, giving the dot plot's implied "one more hike" a fresh data point to feed on.

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