The Weekend Brief: Term Premium Returns - How the 4.8% Treasury Repriced Risk Assets
The 10-year Treasury yield spent most of the week sitting just below 4.8 percent, and then it stopped sitting. By Thursday the benchmark note traded near 4.95 percent, up roughly 11 basis points in a single session as investors braced for the August CPI print, while the 30-year bond pushed to 5.37 percent, its highest level of the month. That move refused to stay contained to fixed income.
Equities sold off, defensive sectors took the worst of it, small caps fell, and gold slipped below $4,450. What the week handed the market is a question it has dodged for most of 2026: has the term premium finally come back, and if it has, what does a more expensive 30-year loan mean for every asset priced…
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