Fed Funds 3.88%, 10-Year 4.96%: Claims Today and PCE on Sept 30 Reprice October

The Fed's next move now parks on two numbers this week. Today's jobless-claims print and the August PCE report due September 30 will tell markets whether the dot plot's “one more hike” actually lands at the October 27-28 meeting, or whether the hawkish repricing that followed the September 16 rate rise has already overshot.

Key Takeaways Jobless claims print today at 12:30 UTC, consensus 201,000 against a prior 196,000, per Investing.com's economic calendar. August PCE and the Q2 GDP third estimate land September 30; the Cleveland Fed nowcast sees core PCE near +0.27% month over month and +3.40% year over year. The 10-year sits at 4.96% with the effective fed funds rate at 3.88%, so the front…