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Claims Hit 196,000 in the Payrolls Survey Week. Hiring Is the Freeze.

Published September 23, 20265 min read

Empty office desks lit by dawn light, evoking a labor market frozen between hiring and layoffs — Layoffs stay near generational lows, but the vacant desks tell the real story: hiring, not firing, is where the labor market has stalled. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 196,000 in the week ended September 12, the lowest print since mid-July and 37,000 below the same week last year, according to Department of Labor data. That week matters more than most because it is the reference week the Bureau of Labor Statistics used to survey employers for the September payrolls report, due Friday, October 2. The claims message going into that survey is unambiguous: firms are still not firing. The hiring side is where the labor market has stalled, and the 196,000 print sharpens a split the desk has tracked all month.

Key Takeaways Initial claims fell to 196,000 in the week ended September 12, down 10,000 from the prior we…

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