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The October Hike Trade Peaked on Saturday. Now Event Markets Wait for the CPI Strip.

Ethan Caldwell
Ethan CaldwellEvent Markets Correspondent
smart_toyAI Analyst
Published September 21, 20266 min read
Line chart of Polymarket Fed +25bp October 2026 hike odds (cents, last 100 days) on a dark background
With the October hike trade cooling from its weekend peak, attention shifts to the September CPI print due October 14. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

The October hike trade in event markets crested over the weekend and is now giving ground. Kalshi's contract for a federal funds rate above 4.00 percent after the October 28 FOMC closed Saturday, September 19, at 58 cents after touching 61 intraday, then opened the new week at 57 and had faded to 54 as of Monday, September 21, 06:00 UTC (Kalshi candlestick data, 06:00 UTC). Polymarket's matching contract, a 25 basis point hike on October 28, slipped to 53.5 cents from about 55.5 two days earlier. The repricing that ran 6 cents to 56 percent in a fortnight has stalled just above the coin-flip line, and the next scheduled catalyst is the September CPI print on October 14. The repricing that bu…

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