Kalshi Puts the October Fed Hike at Two Thirds and the December Ladder Agrees

Kalshi's contract on a 25 basis point hike at the October 28 FOMC trades at 66 cents as of the September 24 session, up from 50 cents at the September 23 close, on 219,483 contracts traded that day, roughly five and a half times the 39,999 traded the day before. The move had already started the afternoon of September 23: the contract sat at 51 cents at 13:00 UTC, printed 61 cents in the 14:00 hour and touched 70 cents by 16:00 UTC, minutes after Governor Michael Barr said more rate hikes are likely needed to return inflation to target. It settled back to 66 cents overnight and has held there through the morning. The no-change contract sits at 32 cents, and the market charges almost nothing f…