{"source":"https://marketintellabs.com/track-record","methodology":"https://marketintellabs.com/track-record#methodology","license":"https://marketintellabs.com/terms","generated_at":"2026-09-28T13:40:56+00:00","total_calls":323,"scored_calls":246,"hits":119,"misses":127,"voids":39,"open_calls":38,"hit_rate":0.4837,"calls":[{"id":"2fe55617-10dd-444d-a5e5-dff5a90aa5b9","article_slug":"bitcoin-under-84000-treasury-yields","analyst":"Priya Kapoor","sector":"crypto","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"neutral","thesis":"The likeliest path near term, per the term structure and that strike stack, is a retest of the $80,000-$85,000 zone before any extension, with volatility expected to climb once Friday's gamma unwinds.","benchmark_price":83809.39,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-24T09:42:28+00:00","due_at":"2026-10-01T09:42:28+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bitcoin-under-84000-treasury-yields"},{"id":"ca284c46-0bcb-4eaf-a12a-04d67afdc3f6","article_slug":"sector-rotation-fed-hike-financials-energy","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"equities","asset":"S&P 500","symbol":"^GSPC","direction":"bearish","thesis":"A tape that refuses to bid even a fully priced and anticipated outcome is a tape telling you the next move is more likely to be a test of the downside than a run to new highs.","benchmark_price":7637.76,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-17T09:05:58+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-24T09:05:58+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":7704.13,"outcome_note":"^GSPC 7704.13 at expiry vs benchmark 7637.76; bearish needs outcome < benchmark, outcome higher -> miss","scored_at":"2026-09-24T21:32:07+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/sector-rotation-fed-hike-financials-energy"},{"id":"a2f28908-4020-4f71-ba89-125167883aaf","article_slug":"gold-at-the-edge-structural-bid-priced-fed-hike","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"I stay structurally biased toward gold over the medium term because record central-bank buying and historic ETF inflows are the kind of demand that does not respond to one rate decision.","benchmark_price":4380.6,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":180,"made_at":"2026-09-16T03:48:45+00:00","due_at":"2027-03-15T03:48:45+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-at-the-edge-structural-bid-priced-fed-hike"},{"id":"c4a7bd80-d058-4352-ae4c-dedec0cac4a3","article_slug":"gold-at-the-edge-structural-bid-priced-fed-hike","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"I stay structurally biased toward gold over the medium term because record central-bank buying and historic ETF inflows are the kind of demand that does not respond to one rate decision.","benchmark_price":4380.6,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":90,"made_at":"2026-09-16T03:48:45+00:00","due_at":"2026-12-15T03:48:45+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-at-the-edge-structural-bid-priced-fed-hike"},{"id":"f06af84e-177d-4c10-ba9c-4d1897f29445","article_slug":"bitcoin-etf-inflows-rebound","analyst":"Priya Kapoor","sector":"crypto","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"neutral","thesis":"Bitcoin's short-term signal is neutral, not bullish, precisely because price has yet to confirm the flows and because a hawkish decision sits directly ahead.","benchmark_price":75587.29,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-15T09:39:44+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-22T09:39:44+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":86281.33,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 86281.33 at expiry vs benchmark 75587.29; |delta|=14.15% > 2% neutral band; neutral call misses","scored_at":"2026-09-22T21:34:25+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bitcoin-etf-inflows-rebound"},{"id":"c8f8b4db-f7d5-4f4d-86bd-a459c00d7886","article_slug":"central-bank-gold-buying-record","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"This is why the metal's medium-term case outlives a single policy print, and the structural bid argues that resistance is more likely to be broken than defended on a second attempt.","benchmark_price":4333.4,"target_price":4673.0,"horizon_days":90,"made_at":"2026-09-14T08:58:07+00:00","due_at":"2026-12-13T08:58:07+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/central-bank-gold-buying-record"},{"id":"12999a96-cdb5-42aa-9950-361695e37fc1","article_slug":"cpi-reaction-august-inflation-print-surprises-markets","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"US 10-year yield","symbol":"^TNX","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4","benchmark_price":4.97,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T16:54:16+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T16:54:16+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":5.0,"outcome_note":"^TNX 5.0 at expiry vs benchmark 4.97","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:37:14+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/cpi-reaction-august-inflation-print-surprises-markets"},{"id":"725bca58-dc8c-41d2-a48f-e330f84d198b","article_slug":"cpi-reaction-august-inflation-print-surprises-markets","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"CPI","symbol":"CPI","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Key Takeaways \n \n  Headline surprise:  August CPI rose 0","benchmark_price":25.6,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T16:54:16+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T16:54:16+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":25.6,"outcome_note":"CPI 25.6 at expiry vs benchmark 25.6","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:37:14+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/cpi-reaction-august-inflation-print-surprises-markets"},{"id":"8b115b04-3bc5-4992-8b3d-b442b97965e5","article_slug":"yields-spike-11-basis-points-cpi","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"US 10-year yield","symbol":"^TNX","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Key levels to watch: SPY support at $755, with $740 on a break; QQQ support at $700; the 10-year yield approaching 5","benchmark_price":4.97,"target_price":755.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T14:36:24+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T14:36:24+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":5.0,"outcome_note":"^TNX 5.0 at expiry vs target 755.0 (benchmark 4.97)","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:37:14+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/yields-spike-11-basis-points-cpi"},{"id":"9dfff20e-6c7e-4202-bf83-921bea52e2f5","article_slug":"yields-spike-11-basis-points-cpi","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"Nasdaq-100","symbol":"^NDX","direction":"bearish","thesis":"83 and the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) dropping 1","benchmark_price":29368.44,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T14:36:24+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T14:36:24+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":29644.17,"outcome_note":"^NDX 29644.17 at expiry vs benchmark 29368.44","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:37:14+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/yields-spike-11-basis-points-cpi"},{"id":"9cef61af-c96c-42d3-8434-894a2f2c5941","article_slug":"yields-spike-11-basis-points-cpi","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Cryptocurrencies showed resilience despite the risk-off tone, with Bitcoin holding above $77k support","benchmark_price":77328.08,"target_price":77.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T14:36:24+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T14:36:24+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":81143.61,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 81143.61 at expiry vs target 77.0 (benchmark 77328.08)","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:37:14+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/yields-spike-11-basis-points-cpi"},{"id":"f19406c9-38dd-4800-aea3-b2014611876c","article_slug":"yields-spike-11-basis-points-cpi","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Conversely, a softer reading might ease pressure on stocks but could reignite gold's recent rally, despite today's 1","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":1,"made_at":"2026-09-11T14:36:24+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-12T14:36:24+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4340.0,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4340.0 vs benchmark 4390.0 -> miss","scored_at":"2026-09-14T21:36:36+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/yields-spike-11-basis-points-cpi"},{"id":"14a32cd5-82bf-4207-95ac-f38426389c24","article_slug":"cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"US 10-year yield","symbol":"^TNX","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Treasury yields would fall, particularly the 10-year, which could retreat from 4","benchmark_price":4.97,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T14:02:42+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T14:02:42+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":5.0,"outcome_note":"^TNX 5.0 at expiry vs benchmark 4.97","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:37:13+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11"},{"id":"5fbbb6d8-8c8b-49c1-90a8-3f97e2a5dfce","article_slug":"cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"Nasdaq-100","symbol":"^NDX","direction":"bearish","thesis":"83, while the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) dropped 1","benchmark_price":29368.44,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T14:02:42+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T14:02:42+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":29644.17,"outcome_note":"^NDX 29644.17 at expiry vs benchmark 29368.44","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:37:13+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11"},{"id":"74c16457-31f3-41ce-ada5-f26cb2b56508","article_slug":"cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"GLD","symbol":"GLD","direction":"bullish","thesis":"A soft print could reignite the rally toward roughly 3,960/oz (implied from GLD's current level), while a hot number could push it back to 390","benchmark_price":398.77,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T14:02:42+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T14:02:42+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":401.17,"outcome_note":"GLD 401.17 at expiry vs benchmark 398.77","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:37:13+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11"},{"id":"94809756-8670-4cc9-a67b-e48abea80331","article_slug":"cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"SPY","symbol":"SPY","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Equities would rally, with SPY targeting 765 resistance and QQQ reclaiming 715","benchmark_price":764.29,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T14:02:42+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T14:02:42+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":761.69,"outcome_note":"SPY 761.69 at expiry vs benchmark 764.29","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:37:13+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11"},{"id":"5608e00d-3518-4b2e-b065-b649ce47af40","article_slug":"cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"US 10-year yield","symbol":"^TNX","direction":"bullish","thesis":"With the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4","benchmark_price":4.97,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T14:02:42+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T14:02:42+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":5.0,"outcome_note":"^TNX 5.0 at expiry vs benchmark 4.97","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:37:13+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11"},{"id":"f8f6c604-b61a-46de-87ed-edc5e015e804","article_slug":"cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"That gap suggests options remain cheap relative to the historical fat-tail distribution, particularly for downside protection in rate-sensitive sectors","benchmark_price":52573.29,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T14:02:42+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T14:02:42+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":51682.64,"outcome_note":"^DJI 51682.64 at expiry vs benchmark 52573.29","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:37:13+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11"},{"id":"5325d7d7-f54a-4e91-96e6-64a5dca5486c","article_slug":"cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"bearish","thesis":"BTC's ability to hold above 77k support is constructive","benchmark_price":77325.78,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T14:02:42+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T14:02:42+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":81143.61,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 81143.61 at expiry vs benchmark 77325.78","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:37:13+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11"},{"id":"7e1fee0b-01bb-40d9-81b2-1ddbac3c11a3","article_slug":"cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"CPI","symbol":"CPI","direction":"bullish","thesis":"That rotation tends to extend in the days after a hot CPI surprise as investors chase quality and cash flow visibility","benchmark_price":25.6,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":1,"made_at":"2026-09-11T14:02:42+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-12T14:02:42+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":25.6,"outcome_note":"CPI 25.6 vs benchmark 25.6 -> miss","scored_at":"2026-09-14T21:36:36+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11"},{"id":"88611906-5edb-4b3b-b953-f8d033d3caea","article_slug":"cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"WTI crude","symbol":"CL=F","direction":"neutral","thesis":"Energy (XLE) has been rangebound as oil stabilizes near $78, but a hot CPI print that strengthens the dollar would weigh on the sector","benchmark_price":99.99,"target_price":78.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T14:02:42+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T14:02:42+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":95.47,"outcome_note":"CL=F 95.47 at expiry vs target 78.0 (benchmark 99.99)","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:37:13+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11"},{"id":"5b495d2a-6e53-4319-88b7-b61224e85702","article_slug":"cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Traders are paying up for protection against a downside surprise","benchmark_price":52573.29,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T14:02:42+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T14:02:42+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":51682.64,"outcome_note":"^DJI 51682.64 at expiry vs benchmark 52573.29","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:37:13+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11"},{"id":"107d5641-9965-42c8-a973-907f1e206de3","article_slug":"cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"bullish","thesis":"BTC gained 0","benchmark_price":77325.78,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T14:02:42+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T14:02:42+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":81143.61,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 81143.61 at expiry vs benchmark 77325.78","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:37:13+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11"},{"id":"09c65301-127e-47b8-8706-67167fb85e52","article_slug":"cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"CPI","symbol":"CPI","direction":"bullish","thesis":"3% or higher MoM increase, particularly if accompanied by a core CPI reading above 0","benchmark_price":25.6,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T14:02:42+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T14:02:42+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":25.6,"outcome_note":"CPI 25.6 at expiry vs benchmark 25.6","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:37:14+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11"},{"id":"fb81ceb3-0bbf-49be-b023-b63b26154313","article_slug":"cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Gold (GLD) would likely resume its rally, potentially breaking above 400 toward its recent highs","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T14:02:42+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T14:02:42+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":4415.9,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4415.9 at expiry vs benchmark 4390.0","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:37:14+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/cpi-preview-positioning-risk-scenarios-august-inflation-2026-09-11"},{"id":"b920e496-1e2e-4540-9538-691cb57f6b28","article_slug":"gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"WTI crude","symbol":"CL=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Oil is rangebound between $88 and $94 with geopolitical tensions providing upside support while rising yields create headwinds","benchmark_price":99.99,"target_price":88.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:49:48+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:49:48+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":95.47,"outcome_note":"CL=F 95.47 at expiry vs target 88.0 (benchmark 99.99)","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts"},{"id":"a2579020-f91f-4297-9b46-247238868c81","article_slug":"gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Gold would likely rally on the news, with the yellow metal targeting $405 and potentially testing $415 as traders price in a more dovish Fed path","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":405.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:49:48+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:49:48+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":4415.9,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4415.9 at expiry vs target 405.0 (benchmark 4390.0)","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts"},{"id":"5f6a9a34-99f2-45c6-9f30-8214465a388f","article_slug":"gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"Silver","symbol":"SI=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Support for silver remains at $57, and a break below that level would test the $55 zone","benchmark_price":65.02,"target_price":57.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:49:48+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:49:48+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":66.78,"outcome_note":"SI=F 66.78 at expiry vs target 57.0 (benchmark 65.02)","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:37:13+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts"},{"id":"09b4ba36-af4a-4831-a9f3-5193e23d81a8","article_slug":"gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"Silver","symbol":"SI=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"But here's the thing: silver's fundamental picture remains supportive","benchmark_price":65.02,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:49:48+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:49:48+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":66.78,"outcome_note":"SI=F 66.78 at expiry vs benchmark 65.02","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:37:13+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts"},{"id":"738db308-da2e-43d6-a0cf-348b4e882c3b","article_slug":"gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"neutral","thesis":"And if the market remains rangebound, silver's industrial demand provides a floor that gold lacks","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:49:48+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:49:48+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":4415.9,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4415.9 at expiry vs benchmark 4390.0","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:37:13+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts"},{"id":"426819d0-1bb6-4627-b45c-d213a88475b3","article_slug":"gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"WTI crude","symbol":"CL=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"That positioning tells you something important: despite the macro headwinds of rising yields and potential growth concerns, oil traders remain bullish on the supply-demand balance","benchmark_price":99.99,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:49:48+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:49:48+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":95.47,"outcome_note":"CL=F 95.47 at expiry vs benchmark 99.99","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:37:13+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts"},{"id":"7d0e8670-0c8f-4a96-9519-ddb7a872acca","article_slug":"gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"# Gold and Commodities Outlook Amid Macro Shifts\n\nThe relationship between macroeconomic conditions and commodity prices has never been straightforward, but the current market environment is testing t...","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:49:48+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:49:48+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":4415.9,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4415.9 at expiry vs benchmark 4390.0","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts"},{"id":"bd5a22f7-6cfd-4d6b-bed7-a2062743b837","article_slug":"gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"Silver","symbol":"SI=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"When the market worries that \"higher for longer\" rates will slow economic growth, silver takes it on the chin","benchmark_price":65.02,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:49:48+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:49:48+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":66.78,"outcome_note":"SI=F 66.78 at expiry vs benchmark 65.02","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts"},{"id":"2e43ef1c-22ec-4183-98ab-4ed08414bb30","article_slug":"gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"WTI crude","symbol":"CL=F","direction":"neutral","thesis":"## Oil: The Geopolitical Wildcard\n\nCrude oil has been consolidating around $91","benchmark_price":99.99,"target_price":91.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:49:48+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:49:48+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":95.47,"outcome_note":"CL=F 95.47 at expiry vs target 91.0 (benchmark 99.99)","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts"},{"id":"0a97a8b2-56c0-40c8-9353-f820a15f7e17","article_slug":"gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"WTI crude","symbol":"CL=F","direction":"neutral","thesis":"From a tactical perspective, oil looks rangebound between $88 and $94","benchmark_price":99.99,"target_price":88.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:49:48+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:49:48+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":95.47,"outcome_note":"CL=F 95.47 at expiry vs target 88.0 (benchmark 99.99)","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts"},{"id":"0b5691e8-fca4-441b-8029-a8e657a321af","article_slug":"gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"Nasdaq-100","symbol":"^NDX","direction":"bearish","thesis":"When tech stocks lead declines, as they did on Tuesday with the Nasdaq-100 dropping 1","benchmark_price":29368.44,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":1,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:49:48+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-12T09:49:48+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":29127.16,"outcome_note":"^NDX 29127.16 vs benchmark 29368.44 -> hit","scored_at":"2026-09-14T21:36:36+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts"},{"id":"ce1e38ed-c998-4dfe-9a6a-ef1d0ace0563","article_slug":"gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Gold would likely sell off on the news, with support emerging near $390, the 200-day moving average","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":390.0,"horizon_days":1,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:49:48+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-12T09:49:48+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4340.0,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4340.0 at expiry vs target 390.0 (benchmark 4390.0) -> miss","scored_at":"2026-09-14T21:36:36+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts"},{"id":"5c8e62b6-e3c6-41f0-bc44-1f4bb43722f7","article_slug":"gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"A break above $60 would target $65 and potentially $70 if gold resumes its rally","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":60.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:49:48+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:49:48+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":4415.9,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4415.9 at expiry vs target 60.0 (benchmark 4390.0)","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts"},{"id":"ea5f8558-668c-4fa1-80c4-4cd09ce3c8bd","article_slug":"gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"WTI crude","symbol":"CL=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Crude oil has support at $88 and $85, with resistance at $94 and $98","benchmark_price":99.99,"target_price":88.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:49:48+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:49:48+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":95.47,"outcome_note":"CL=F 95.47 at expiry vs target 88.0 (benchmark 99.99)","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts"},{"id":"16383949-fbe8-4b7c-bee9-95b6b9d21c1d","article_slug":"gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"WTI crude","symbol":"CL=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"The rangebound markets offer opportunities to buy support and sell resistance, while the coiled energy offers opportunities to position for the breakout","benchmark_price":99.99,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:49:48+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:49:48+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":95.47,"outcome_note":"CL=F 95.47 at expiry vs benchmark 99.99","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts"},{"id":"c5313093-aaac-46ec-8852-baabd5c5c407","article_slug":"gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"US 10-year yield","symbol":"^TNX","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Rising Treasury yields, sticky inflation, and a Federal Reserve committed to keeping rates higher for longer are reshaping the commodities landscape","benchmark_price":4.97,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:49:48+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:49:48+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":5.0,"outcome_note":"^TNX 5.0 at expiry vs benchmark 4.97","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts"},{"id":"bcc47ac6-9672-4268-a256-481afc8c61a7","article_slug":"gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Key Takeaways  \n Gold declined 1","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:49:48+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:49:48+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4415.9,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4415.9 at expiry vs benchmark 4390.0","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts"},{"id":"28c3d69c-3fa3-4b5e-b4a2-dacd7a5b913e","article_slug":"gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The August CPI print on Friday will be the key catalyst for gold, with scenarios ranging from a potential rally on a soft print to a pullback toward $390 on a hot print","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":390.0,"horizon_days":1,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:49:48+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-12T09:49:48+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":4340.0,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4340.0 at expiry vs target 390.0 (benchmark 4390.0) -> hit","scored_at":"2026-09-14T21:36:36+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts"},{"id":"88d237bd-b6c9-47c9-b2f3-09e3a701a7b2","article_slug":"gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"WTI crude","symbol":"CL=F","direction":"neutral","thesis":"But until we get clarity from the CPI print and the subsequent Fed meeting, the path of least resistance for oil is sideways","benchmark_price":99.99,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:49:48+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:49:48+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":95.47,"outcome_note":"CL=F 95.47 at expiry vs benchmark 99.99","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-and-commodities-outlook-amid-macro-shifts"},{"id":"e5351846-6259-4b81-a0a6-007aeb7f99c3","article_slug":"equities-sector-rotation-opportunities-risks-september-2026","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"equities","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"If the rotation is signaling an economic slowdown that hasn't been priced in yet, defensives themselves could face pressure if revenues decline","benchmark_price":52573.29,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:47:12+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:47:12+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":51682.64,"outcome_note":"^DJI 51682.64 at expiry vs benchmark 52573.29","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/equities-sector-rotation-opportunities-risks-september-2026"},{"id":"9df36f5b-d76a-483f-93ac-0670c5af4fd6","article_slug":"equities-sector-rotation-opportunities-risks-september-2026","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"equities","asset":"US 10-year yield","symbol":"^TNX","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4","benchmark_price":4.97,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:47:12+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:47:12+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":5.0,"outcome_note":"^TNX 5.0 at expiry vs benchmark 4.97","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/equities-sector-rotation-opportunities-risks-september-2026"},{"id":"493101c2-6fc5-4b41-a2a9-27058564fd4d","article_slug":"equities-sector-rotation-opportunities-risks-september-2026","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"equities","asset":"Nasdaq-100","symbol":"^NDX","direction":"bearish","thesis":"83, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) dropped 1","benchmark_price":29368.44,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:47:12+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:47:12+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":29644.17,"outcome_note":"^NDX 29644.17 at expiry vs benchmark 29368.44","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/equities-sector-rotation-opportunities-risks-september-2026"},{"id":"95f59068-5301-4ad5-ae05-9c3fbde3f945","article_slug":"equities-sector-rotation-opportunities-risks-september-2026","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"equities","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Inflation has been surprising to the downside more often than to the upside this year","benchmark_price":52573.29,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:47:12+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:47:12+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":51682.64,"outcome_note":"^DJI 51682.64 at expiry vs benchmark 52573.29","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/equities-sector-rotation-opportunities-risks-september-2026"},{"id":"302ebd84-f50a-4c87-8a7c-9ea6292f1491","article_slug":"daily-macro-snapshot-key-indicators-for-september-11","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"CPI","symbol":"CPI","direction":"bullish","thesis":"That could cap further upside in yields regardless of the CPI outcome","benchmark_price":25.6,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:38:00+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:38:00+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":25.6,"outcome_note":"CPI 25.6 at expiry vs benchmark 25.6","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/daily-macro-snapshot-key-indicators-for-september-11"},{"id":"6ed0f8cb-5bd8-4518-a416-98a90aa7ced9","article_slug":"daily-macro-snapshot-key-indicators-for-september-11","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"Nasdaq-100","symbol":"^NDX","direction":"bearish","thesis":"QQQ (Nasdaq-100 proxy) dropped 1","benchmark_price":29368.44,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:38:00+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:38:00+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":29644.17,"outcome_note":"^NDX 29644.17 at expiry vs benchmark 29368.44","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/daily-macro-snapshot-key-indicators-for-september-11"},{"id":"d77f93a2-da0b-4192-a4b0-0d1421776444","article_slug":"daily-macro-snapshot-key-indicators-for-september-11","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"SPY","symbol":"SPY","direction":"bearish","thesis":"If SPY falls below 755, it could trigger a test of the 740 level","benchmark_price":764.29,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:38:00+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:38:00+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":761.69,"outcome_note":"SPY 761.69 at expiry vs benchmark 764.29","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/daily-macro-snapshot-key-indicators-for-september-11"},{"id":"f4dbdaca-0b2e-47d4-87eb-089e5d8e678c","article_slug":"daily-macro-snapshot-key-indicators-for-september-11","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Bitcoin and Ethereum posted gains","benchmark_price":77322.73,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:38:00+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:38:00+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":81143.61,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 81143.61 at expiry vs benchmark 77322.73","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/daily-macro-snapshot-key-indicators-for-september-11"},{"id":"8877ff5e-6a69-40ad-b0f1-434456906eec","article_slug":"daily-macro-snapshot-key-indicators-for-september-11","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Bitcoin's ability to hold above the 77,000 support level is constructive","benchmark_price":77322.73,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:38:00+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:38:00+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":81143.61,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 81143.61 at expiry vs benchmark 77322.73","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/daily-macro-snapshot-key-indicators-for-september-11"},{"id":"33749f0c-17ef-437d-8155-4a540519a1bd","article_slug":"daily-macro-snapshot-key-indicators-for-september-11","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Gold and silver retreated after last week's rally","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:38:00+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:38:00+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":4415.9,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4415.9 at expiry vs benchmark 4390.0","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/daily-macro-snapshot-key-indicators-for-september-11"},{"id":"b8483dbd-0af8-4f30-9420-204d286190ce","article_slug":"daily-macro-snapshot-key-indicators-for-september-11","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"3% despite equity market weakness \n Gold declined 1","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:38:00+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:38:00+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4415.9,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4415.9 at expiry vs benchmark 4390.0","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/daily-macro-snapshot-key-indicators-for-september-11"},{"id":"b359c27b-c668-4145-89c7-378d2906334d","article_slug":"daily-macro-snapshot-key-indicators-for-september-11","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"The breakdown below 760 support on SPY is technically significant","benchmark_price":52573.29,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:38:00+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:38:00+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":51682.64,"outcome_note":"^DJI 51682.64 at expiry vs benchmark 52573.29","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/daily-macro-snapshot-key-indicators-for-september-11"},{"id":"94769828-60df-4a99-8b69-0e6086d9b4ec","article_slug":"vix-jumps-defensive-rotation","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"equities","asset":"XLK","symbol":"XLK","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Technology stocks led the decline with the XLK sector ETF falling 1","benchmark_price":187.67,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:29:33+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:29:33+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":189.6,"outcome_note":"XLK 189.6 at expiry vs benchmark 187.67","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/vix-jumps-defensive-rotation"},{"id":"72117251-b849-48f9-ae67-0be0f045c0fd","article_slug":"vix-jumps-defensive-rotation","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"equities","asset":"Nasdaq-100","symbol":"^NDX","direction":"bearish","thesis":"83, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) dropped 1","benchmark_price":29368.44,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:29:33+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:29:33+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":29644.17,"outcome_note":"^NDX 29644.17 at expiry vs benchmark 29368.44","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/vix-jumps-defensive-rotation"},{"id":"ed09cd31-b65d-42a4-bcde-6eeee033f0e9","article_slug":"vix-jumps-defensive-rotation","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"equities","asset":"QQQ","symbol":"QQQ","direction":"bearish","thesis":"The QQQ has nearby support at $700","benchmark_price":714.88,"target_price":700.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:29:33+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:29:33+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":721.45,"outcome_note":"QQQ 721.45 at expiry vs target 700.0 (benchmark 714.88)","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/vix-jumps-defensive-rotation"},{"id":"8d2e97bf-47af-44e4-8954-db3a4fcf1847","article_slug":"vix-jumps-defensive-rotation","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"equities","asset":"SPY","symbol":"SPY","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Support levels to watch on the SPY sit at $750, the 50-day moving average","benchmark_price":764.29,"target_price":750.0,"horizon_days":1,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:29:33+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-12T09:29:33+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":760.88,"outcome_note":"SPY 760.88 at expiry vs target 750.0 (benchmark 764.29) -> miss","scored_at":"2026-09-14T21:36:36+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/vix-jumps-defensive-rotation"},{"id":"425dd725-22e9-4623-94f6-3641575a9341","article_slug":"vix-jumps-defensive-rotation","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"equities","asset":"Silver","symbol":"SI=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Silver (SLV) dropped 5","benchmark_price":65.02,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:29:33+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:29:33+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":66.78,"outcome_note":"SI=F 66.78 at expiry vs benchmark 65.02","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/vix-jumps-defensive-rotation"},{"id":"540a8e79-74b7-4c04-b8c6-8a3c95cb9eb7","article_slug":"vix-jumps-defensive-rotation","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"equities","asset":"Ethereum","symbol":"ETH-USD","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Investors should watch whether the technology sector stabilizes at current levels or if the selloff deepens","benchmark_price":2534.76,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:29:33+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:29:33+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":2628.88,"outcome_note":"ETH-USD 2628.88 at expiry vs benchmark 2534.76","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/vix-jumps-defensive-rotation"},{"id":"94f9c08a-a2f0-4f26-bf9b-5667941bc742","article_slug":"vix-jumps-defensive-rotation","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"equities","asset":"SPY","symbol":"SPY","direction":"bearish","thesis":"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) declined 0","benchmark_price":764.29,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:29:33+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:29:33+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":761.69,"outcome_note":"SPY 761.69 at expiry vs benchmark 764.29","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/vix-jumps-defensive-rotation"},{"id":"e58340ca-0180-4f6d-b80e-56bc76fe1b01","article_slug":"gold-prices-august-dollar-yields","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Bitcoin and Ethereum both gained 0","benchmark_price":77324.8,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:24:14+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:24:14+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":81143.61,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 81143.61 at expiry vs benchmark 77324.8","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-prices-august-dollar-yields"},{"id":"7e69d644-18f2-427d-92ca-5d3cf8beeb08","article_slug":"gold-prices-august-dollar-yields","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Related reading:  Steady Expansion, Not Overheating: Why the Fed Is Holding Pat ,  Small Cap Slump Signals Risk‑Off Rotation Amid Rising Yields ,  Gold and Silver Diverge as Central Bank Buying Suppor...","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:24:14+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:24:14+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4415.9,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4415.9 at expiry vs benchmark 4390.0","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-prices-august-dollar-yields"},{"id":"3a9c011b-4a77-43d3-be6e-81b96cfe9feb","article_slug":"gold-prices-august-dollar-yields","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"The technical breakdown below SPY support at 760 confirms the market is pricing in a tighter liquidity environment","benchmark_price":52573.29,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:24:14+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:24:14+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":51682.64,"outcome_note":"^DJI 51682.64 at expiry vs benchmark 52573.29","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-prices-august-dollar-yields"},{"id":"2acc6c49-f00c-4fcb-bbb7-1e4bfc38af1b","article_slug":"gold-prices-august-dollar-yields","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"When real yields climb, the opportunity cost of holding gold and silver rises","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:24:14+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:24:14+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":4415.9,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4415.9 at expiry vs benchmark 4390.0","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-prices-august-dollar-yields"},{"id":"8dd0daf1-9c58-4173-a5d8-32805eceb588","article_slug":"gold-prices-august-dollar-yields","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Bitcoin holding above 77,000 support signals accumulation rather than distribution","benchmark_price":77326.39,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:24:14+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:24:14+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":81143.61,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 81143.61 at expiry vs benchmark 77326.39","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-prices-august-dollar-yields"},{"id":"1e13b9a0-2f9f-4412-ab31-8a3919290070","article_slug":"gold-prices-august-dollar-yields","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Silver","symbol":"SI=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"73% while silver dropped 5","benchmark_price":65.02,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:24:14+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:24:14+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":66.78,"outcome_note":"SI=F 66.78 at expiry vs benchmark 65.02","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-prices-august-dollar-yields"},{"id":"21338583-f7ac-4b86-a222-d16eae602ad4","article_slug":"gold-prices-august-dollar-yields","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"US 10-year yield","symbol":"^TNX","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 11 basis points to 4","benchmark_price":4.97,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:24:14+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:24:14+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":5.0,"outcome_note":"^TNX 5.0 at expiry vs benchmark 4.97","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-prices-august-dollar-yields"},{"id":"a2760164-a7e9-49e2-a6d1-2ab316fb643c","article_slug":"market-positioning-ahead-of-fed-meetings","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"US 10-year yield","symbol":"^TNX","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Had the market been pricing a hard landing, we would expect the 2-year to lead the 10-year lower as investors front-run Fed cuts","benchmark_price":4.97,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:10:08+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:10:08+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":5.0,"outcome_note":"^TNX 5.0 at expiry vs benchmark 4.97","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/market-positioning-ahead-of-fed-meetings"},{"id":"82941687-4316-43fb-920c-c76d3ff5daac","article_slug":"market-positioning-ahead-of-fed-meetings","analyst":"Marcus 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4","benchmark_price":4.97,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:10:08+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:10:08+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":5.0,"outcome_note":"^TNX 5.0 at expiry vs benchmark 4.97","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/market-positioning-ahead-of-fed-meetings"},{"id":"ec33a4c5-3037-40aa-ac31-be5cda085ce9","article_slug":"market-positioning-ahead-of-fed-meetings","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Bitcoin gained 0","benchmark_price":77334.41,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:10:08+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:10:08+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":81143.61,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 81143.61 at expiry vs benchmark 77334.41","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/market-positioning-ahead-of-fed-meetings"},{"id":"8a4d3473-d36d-4a41-ae6c-fede7798f43d","article_slug":"market-positioning-ahead-of-fed-meetings","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Gold declined 1","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:10:08+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:10:08+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4415.9,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4415.9 at expiry vs benchmark 4390.0","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/market-positioning-ahead-of-fed-meetings"},{"id":"4702f80c-86e6-4ca5-adfc-72046a70086a","article_slug":"market-positioning-ahead-of-fed-meetings","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"CPI","symbol":"CPI","direction":"bullish","thesis":"This rise in implied volatility reflects elevated near-term uncertainty ahead of tomorrow's CPI print","benchmark_price":25.6,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:10:08+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:10:08+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":25.6,"outcome_note":"CPI 25.6 at expiry vs benchmark 25.6","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/market-positioning-ahead-of-fed-meetings"},{"id":"32971667-448a-42d6-93f2-fa0053e8cfe2","article_slug":"market-positioning-ahead-of-fed-meetings","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"Nasdaq-100","symbol":"^NDX","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The Nasdaq 100 underperformed the broader market by 46 basis points, confirming that higher rates are compressing forward earnings multiples","benchmark_price":29368.44,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:10:08+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:10:08+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":29644.17,"outcome_note":"^NDX 29644.17 at expiry vs benchmark 29368.44","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/market-positioning-ahead-of-fed-meetings"},{"id":"cdc5db4f-e22b-4463-a649-8f8e6cec954b","article_slug":"market-positioning-ahead-of-fed-meetings","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"What to watch in the days ahead: the 740 level on the S&amp;P 500 as the next downside support, the 5","benchmark_price":52573.29,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":1,"made_at":"2026-09-11T09:10:08+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-12T09:10:08+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":52421.2,"outcome_note":"^DJI 52421.2 vs benchmark 52573.29 -> hit","scored_at":"2026-09-14T21:36:36+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/market-positioning-ahead-of-fed-meetings"},{"id":"aec2f7c7-d999-4716-b0d2-784418d0f7a4","article_slug":"what-watch-august-cpi","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"commodities","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Downside surprise would arrive from a core print below 0","benchmark_price":52573.29,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T17:57:19+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T17:57:19+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":51778.04,"outcome_note":"^DJI 51778.04 vs benchmark 52573.29","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:49:48+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/what-watch-august-cpi"},{"id":"8c3a113f-9789-47b4-a63e-a096f5e7241c","article_slug":"what-watch-august-cpi","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"commodities","asset":"CPI","symbol":"CPI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Related Reading    Small Caps Drop as Yield Spike Triggers Rotation    What to Watch: August Consumer Price Index    August CPI: What to Watch as Inflation Data Lands    Fed policy coverage","benchmark_price":25.6,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T17:57:19+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T17:57:19+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"symbol 'CPI' not a quotable Yahoo symbol/accepted target; unscoreable","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:49:48+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/what-watch-august-cpi"},{"id":"8a874041-eaf9-4bb3-9af0-92d9a98138bb","article_slug":"august-producer-price-index-what-it-means","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"WTI crude","symbol":"CL=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Energy prices, which had been a disinflationary drag, turned higher as oil prices rebounded from their summer lows","benchmark_price":99.99,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T17:56:06+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T17:56:06+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":101.09,"outcome_note":"CL=F 101.09 vs benchmark 99.99","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:49:47+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/august-producer-price-index-what-it-means"},{"id":"59abeeb4-b047-4f05-b63f-231e6cdd3278","article_slug":"august-producer-price-index-what-it-means","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"SPY","symbol":"SPY","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Markets reacted immediately, with SPY dropping -0","benchmark_price":764.29,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T17:56:06+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T17:56:06+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":762.6,"outcome_note":"SPY 762.6 vs benchmark 764.29","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:49:48+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/august-producer-price-index-what-it-means"},{"id":"c744b7c5-8248-4446-b3ad-d44ff7ffd563","article_slug":"august-producer-price-index-what-it-means","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"US 10-year yield","symbol":"^TNX","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Treasury yields immediately moved higher on the release, with the two-year note leading the charge","benchmark_price":4.97,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T17:56:06+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T17:56:06+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4.95,"outcome_note":"^TNX 4.95 vs benchmark 4.97","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:49:47+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/august-producer-price-index-what-it-means"},{"id":"5024be9d-b4e4-4ff6-8d8a-871fc25ec296","article_slug":"august-producer-price-index-what-it-means","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"TLT","symbol":"TLT","direction":"bearish","thesis":"46% and TLT falling -0","benchmark_price":80.87,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T17:56:06+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T17:56:06+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":81.78,"outcome_note":"TLT 81.78 vs benchmark 80.87","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:49:47+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/august-producer-price-index-what-it-means"},{"id":"5742df70-d7ba-47a7-b5d5-4c466b88b7d1","article_slug":"august-ppi-jumps-0-9-vs","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"TLT","symbol":"TLT","direction":"bearish","thesis":"46%, while long-duration Treasuries (TLT) dropped 0","benchmark_price":80.87,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T17:40:26+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T17:40:26+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":81.78,"outcome_note":"TLT 81.78 vs benchmark 80.87","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:49:47+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/august-ppi-jumps-0-9-vs"},{"id":"5c1bcaca-6566-449a-b177-091985bea284","article_slug":"august-ppi-jumps-0-9-vs","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"PPI","symbol":"PPI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"The Fed's data-dependent framework remains dependent on whichever data supports the current narrative, and today's PPI suggests the narrative is shifting","benchmark_price":21.09,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":1,"made_at":"2026-09-10T17:40:26+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-11T17:40:26+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":21.09,"outcome_note":"PPI 21.09 at expiry vs benchmark 21.09","scored_at":"2026-09-11T21:46:58+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/august-ppi-jumps-0-9-vs"},{"id":"12a59b32-311f-46ca-966e-8a97209a6b12","article_slug":"august-ppi-jumps-0-9-vs","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Dollar index","symbol":"DX-Y.NYB","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The dollar index initially strengthened on the data before giving back some gains by the afternoon session","benchmark_price":99.09,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T17:40:26+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T17:40:26+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":100.22,"outcome_note":"DX-Y.NYB 100.22 vs benchmark 99.09","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:49:47+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/august-ppi-jumps-0-9-vs"},{"id":"1e70b4f5-9cee-4260-9975-aa8a457ade40","article_slug":"august-ppi-jumps-0-9-vs","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"CPI","symbol":"CPI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Related reading:  What to Watch: August Consumer Price Index ,  August CPI: What to Watch as Inflation Data Lands ,  Small Caps Drop as Yield Spike Triggers Rotation","benchmark_price":25.6,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T17:40:26+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T17:40:26+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"symbol 'CPI' not a quotable Yahoo symbol/accepted target; unscoreable","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:49:47+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/august-ppi-jumps-0-9-vs"},{"id":"6b68197c-b244-4848-b157-c3d2c36f24e7","article_slug":"small-caps-drop-as-yield-spike-triggers-rotation","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"Russell 2000","symbol":"^RUT","direction":"bearish","thesis":"The Russell 2000 declined 1","benchmark_price":2903.94,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T14:03:58+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T14:03:58+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":2874.63,"outcome_note":"^RUT 2874.63 vs benchmark 2903.94","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:49:47+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/small-caps-drop-as-yield-spike-triggers-rotation"},{"id":"42683ac0-bba8-4e3b-a14b-25b0796cc67e","article_slug":"small-caps-drop-as-yield-spike-triggers-rotation","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"US 10-year yield","symbol":"^TNX","direction":"bullish","thesis":"37%, underperforming large-cap indices as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4","benchmark_price":4.97,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T14:03:58+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T14:03:58+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4.95,"outcome_note":"^TNX 4.95 vs benchmark 4.97","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:49:47+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/small-caps-drop-as-yield-spike-triggers-rotation"},{"id":"c42a062b-ab7e-4642-8ad5-04136aaa14d0","article_slug":"what-to-watch-august-cpi-2026","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"CPI","symbol":"CPI","direction":"bullish","thesis":"9% year-over-year, while core CPI should advance 0","benchmark_price":25.6,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T13:45:57+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T13:45:57+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"symbol 'CPI' not a quotable Yahoo symbol/accepted target; unscoreable","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:49:47+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/what-to-watch-august-cpi-2026"},{"id":"0cb27ed8-84ba-4d0f-9d6a-2b5dc5f42de8","article_slug":"what-to-watch-august-cpi-2026","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"CPI","symbol":"CPI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"A softer CPI print typically weighs on the dollar by reducing interest rate differentials, while a stronger print supports the greenback","benchmark_price":25.6,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T13:45:57+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T13:45:57+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"symbol 'CPI' not a quotable Yahoo symbol/accepted target; unscoreable","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:49:47+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/what-to-watch-august-cpi-2026"},{"id":"8782e9dc-481b-45fb-a5c1-7aa337e1dc11","article_slug":"what-to-watch-august-cpi-2026","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"CPI","symbol":"CPI","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Friday's CPI release arrives against this backdrop","benchmark_price":25.6,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":1,"made_at":"2026-09-10T13:45:57+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-11T13:45:57+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":25.6,"outcome_note":"CPI 25.6 at expiry vs benchmark 25.6","scored_at":"2026-09-11T21:46:57+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/what-to-watch-august-cpi-2026"},{"id":"42310b70-f82e-4e89-b786-2ebc0cb33433","article_slug":"what-to-watch-august-cpi-2026","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Ethereum","symbol":"ETH-USD","direction":"bullish","thesis":"A print above 3% would raise questions about whether the remaining progress requires more time or higher rates","benchmark_price":2535.08,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T13:45:57+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T13:45:57+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":2449.08,"outcome_note":"ETH-USD 2449.08 vs benchmark 2535.08","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:49:47+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/what-to-watch-august-cpi-2026"},{"id":"d0b99aaf-611b-4163-b166-295384a10679","article_slug":"what-to-watch-august-cpi-2026","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"On the downside, housing market data points toward slowing rent growth","benchmark_price":52573.29,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T13:45:57+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T13:45:57+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":51778.04,"outcome_note":"^DJI 51778.04 vs benchmark 52573.29","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:49:47+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/what-to-watch-august-cpi-2026"},{"id":"852bd657-50d2-441c-b85d-7088b26fb678","article_slug":"what-to-watch-august-cpi-2026","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"CPI","symbol":"CPI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Apartment asking prices in major metropolitan areas have declined year-over-year for several consecutive months, with the impact typically filtering into CPI with a lag of 12 to 18 months","benchmark_price":25.6,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-09-10T13:45:57+00:00","due_at":"2026-10-10T13:45:57+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/what-to-watch-august-cpi-2026"},{"id":"254b965c-6c44-4971-a65c-bed19c893ef2","article_slug":"august-cpi-inflation-data-lands","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"On the downside, used vehicle prices have been a deflationary force for months, and that could continue if dealer inventories remain elevated","benchmark_price":52573.29,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-09-10T13:34:27+00:00","due_at":"2026-10-10T13:34:27+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/august-cpi-inflation-data-lands"},{"id":"b4111870-8211-4d69-90df-f506313eced2","article_slug":"august-cpi-inflation-data-lands","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"CPI","symbol":"CPI","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Shelter costs remain the primary driver of persistent inflation, accounting for nearly half of core CPI gains","benchmark_price":25.6,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T13:34:27+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T13:34:27+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"symbol 'CPI' not a quotable Yahoo symbol/accepted target; unscoreable","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:49:47+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/august-cpi-inflation-data-lands"},{"id":"1bc18786-9e6b-49d4-9364-838dc353bb95","article_slug":"august-cpi-inflation-data-lands","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"AAA","symbol":"AAA","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Gasoline prices fell roughly 4% in August according to AAA data, while natural gas retreated from summer peaks","benchmark_price":24.86,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T13:34:27+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T13:34:27+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"symbol 'AAA' not a quotable Yahoo symbol/accepted target; unscoreable","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:49:47+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/august-cpi-inflation-data-lands"},{"id":"cd378eec-2667-47eb-aa83-cd803cb24946","article_slug":"august-cpi-inflation-data-lands","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Energy prices could provide downward pressure after August declines in gasoline and natural gas","benchmark_price":52573.29,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T13:34:27+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T13:34:27+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":51778.04,"outcome_note":"^DJI 51778.04 vs benchmark 52573.29","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:49:47+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/august-cpi-inflation-data-lands"},{"id":"bdacd68a-09cf-44d4-b19c-199296fd17db","article_slug":"august-cpi-inflation-data-lands","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"US 10-year 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4","benchmark_price":4.97,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T13:34:27+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T13:34:27+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4.95,"outcome_note":"^TNX 4.95 vs benchmark 4.97","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:49:47+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/august-cpi-inflation-data-lands"},{"id":"3f8203c1-afc3-4810-8afe-272a10e17d01","article_slug":"small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"QQQ","symbol":"QQQ","direction":"neutral","thesis":"SPY and QQQ remain neutral with medium confidence.","benchmark_price":708.69,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:57:37+00:00","due_at":"2026-10-10T09:57:37+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields"},{"id":"25cffd33-0736-472e-a1d3-abbcb9572d21","article_slug":"small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"SPY","symbol":"SPY","direction":"neutral","thesis":"SPY and QQQ remain neutral with medium confidence.","benchmark_price":757.83,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:57:37+00:00","due_at":"2026-10-10T09:57:37+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields"},{"id":"d1c107b4-6917-4224-8398-e60e07affba5","article_slug":"small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"Russell 2000","symbol":"^RUT","direction":"bullish","thesis":"That episode resolved with a relief rally on softer inflation data, but not before the Russell 2000 shed an additional 4% from the initial trigger","benchmark_price":2903.94,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:57:37+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:57:37+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":2874.63,"outcome_note":"^RUT 2874.63 at expiry vs benchmark 2903.94","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields"},{"id":"c8abb3bc-d5dc-4523-af22-13fb32ae79e1","article_slug":"small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"Silver","symbol":"SI=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Silver (SLV) gained 2","benchmark_price":65.02,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:57:37+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:57:37+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":65.72,"outcome_note":"SI=F 65.72 at expiry vs benchmark 65.02","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields"},{"id":"718bfb8e-0a3e-4b19-a205-167a70165eee","article_slug":"small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields","analyst":"James 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headwinds.","benchmark_price":396.36,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:57:37+00:00","due_at":"2026-10-10T09:57:37+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields"},{"id":"203ca203-844f-41e7-94d8-7dbf0461fd0f","article_slug":"small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"SPY","symbol":"SPY","direction":"neutral","thesis":"Directionally, SPY and QQQ remain neutral with medium confidence","benchmark_price":764.29,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:57:37+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:57:37+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":762.6,"outcome_note":"SPY 762.6 at expiry vs benchmark 764.29","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields"},{"id":"ed7b6549-77d1-4849-a5cd-9b8c3a84a29c","article_slug":"small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"neutral","thesis":"BTC and ETH are neutral with low confidence, range-bound and lacking catalysts","benchmark_price":77340.62,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:57:37+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:57:37+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":76454.83,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 76454.83 at expiry vs benchmark 77340.62","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields"},{"id":"73bcf7ff-fb57-43c5-ab15-adc7559659a3","article_slug":"small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"WTI crude","symbol":"CL=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"83%, the only sector to finish higher as oil prices rose","benchmark_price":99.99,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:57:37+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:57:37+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":101.09,"outcome_note":"CL=F 101.09 vs benchmark 99.99","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:49:47+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields"},{"id":"f9032556-aff7-4b7e-b019-34e4488dda1e","article_slug":"small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields","analyst":"James 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0","benchmark_price":4.97,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:57:37+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:57:37+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4.95,"outcome_note":"^TNX 4.95 vs benchmark 4.97","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:49:47+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields"},{"id":"7cf8cce6-3988-46c1-aa59-f76cd8b81cae","article_slug":"small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"US 10-year yield","symbol":"^TNX","direction":"bearish","thesis":"What to watch next: small-cap support levels around IWM $288, the 10-year yield approaching 5","benchmark_price":4.97,"target_price":288.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:57:37+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:57:37+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"target 288.0 invalid for ^TNX (yield asset); unscoreable","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields"},{"id":"62670d3d-3a6f-4e62-bbf0-08726863633f","article_slug":"small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"SLV","symbol":"SLV","direction":"bullish","thesis":"GLD and SLV are bullish with high confidence on a medium-term timeframe, as central bank buying and geopolitical hedging outweigh rate headwinds.","benchmark_price":57.5,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:57:37+00:00","due_at":"2026-10-10T09:57:37+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields"},{"id":"639ffef4-1a42-4a38-9c8a-6c271ee14942","article_slug":"small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"BTC-USD","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"neutral","thesis":"BTC and ETH are neutral with low confidence, range-bound and lacking catalysts.","benchmark_price":77175.52,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:57:37+00:00","due_at":"2026-10-10T09:57:37+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields"},{"id":"2b974a04-6b79-4423-865c-8b6c7a83a6ea","article_slug":"small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"ETH-USD","symbol":"ETH-USD","direction":"neutral","thesis":"BTC and ETH are neutral with low confidence, range-bound and lacking catalysts.","benchmark_price":2459.27,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:57:37+00:00","due_at":"2026-10-10T09:57:37+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields"},{"id":"423d25ff-a6ad-4eed-8093-ae35ced2e26e","article_slug":"small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"GLD","symbol":"GLD","direction":"bullish","thesis":"GLD and SLV are bullish with high confidence on a medium-term timeframe, as central bank buying and geopolitical hedging outweigh rate headwinds","benchmark_price":398.77,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:57:37+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:57:37+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":398.36,"outcome_note":"GLD 398.36 at expiry vs benchmark 398.77","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields"},{"id":"412287f5-2342-4080-8d7e-ff194f615dda","article_slug":"small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"CPI","symbol":"CPI","direction":"bullish","thesis":"A softer CPI print later this week could trigger a relief rally","benchmark_price":25.6,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:57:37+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:57:37+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"symbol 'CPI' not a quotable Yahoo symbol; unscoreable","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/small-cap-slump-signals-risk-off-rotation-amid-rising-yields"},{"id":"9722573b-a54f-4316-be4f-d2822a77653d","article_slug":"gold-silver-diverge-central-bank-buying-supports-precious-metals","analyst":"David 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rally","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":4.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:52:23+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:52:23+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"malformed target_price 4.0 (data error) on GC=F; unscoreable","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-silver-diverge-central-bank-buying-supports-precious-metals"},{"id":"b487ec26-db9a-46f6-9e6b-afbebe2f52fc","article_slug":"gold-silver-diverge-central-bank-buying-supports-precious-metals","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"USD","symbol":"USD","direction":"bearish","thesis":"The metal has found support from continued central bank buying, particularly from emerging market banks diversifying away from USD holdings","benchmark_price":86.06,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:52:23+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:52:23+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"symbol 'USD' not a quotable Yahoo symbol; unscoreable","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-silver-diverge-central-bank-buying-supports-precious-metals"},{"id":"d9878bf1-f28c-4e86-a57c-164fa8768190","article_slug":"gold-silver-diverge-central-bank-buying-supports-precious-metals","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"USO","symbol":"USO","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The USO ETF gained 2","benchmark_price":154.9,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:52:23+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:52:23+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":155.31,"outcome_note":"USO 155.31 at expiry vs benchmark 154.9","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-silver-diverge-central-bank-buying-supports-precious-metals"},{"id":"004732ea-8734-4eda-b481-b90176931424","article_slug":"gold-silver-diverge-central-bank-buying-supports-precious-metals","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"GDX","symbol":"GDX","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The GDX ETF and SIL ETF would benefit from higher precious metals prices","benchmark_price":97.1,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:52:23+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:52:23+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":95.92,"outcome_note":"GDX 95.92 at expiry vs benchmark 97.1","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-silver-diverge-central-bank-buying-supports-precious-metals"},{"id":"23024c92-9a45-49fe-bde2-89e98fc73753","article_slug":"gold-silver-diverge-central-bank-buying-supports-precious-metals","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Silver","symbol":"SI=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"For silver, a relapse in manufacturing activity would erase recent gains","benchmark_price":65.02,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:52:23+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:52:23+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":65.72,"outcome_note":"SI=F 65.72 at expiry vs benchmark 65.02","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-silver-diverge-central-bank-buying-supports-precious-metals"},{"id":"eeece8a1-a292-479b-8426-d681212791fb","article_slug":"gold-silver-diverge-central-bank-buying-supports-precious-metals","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Silver","symbol":"SI=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"For silver, the $67 level is now support with resistance near $67","benchmark_price":65.02,"target_price":67.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:52:23+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:52:23+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":65.72,"outcome_note":"SI=F 65.72 at expiry vs target 67.0 (benchmark 65.02)","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-silver-diverge-central-bank-buying-supports-precious-metals"},{"id":"fa9807a7-5903-4dc7-81fa-bb74824627dd","article_slug":"gold-silver-diverge-central-bank-buying-supports-precious-metals","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"3% ,  Gold Holds Above $4,400 as Central Bank Buying Provides Support ,  Treasury Yield at 4","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":4.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:52:23+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:52:23+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"malformed target_price 4.0 (data error) on GC=F; unscoreable","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-silver-diverge-central-bank-buying-supports-precious-metals"},{"id":"4d951e54-f8c9-499c-b5a4-fe24c288e927","article_slug":"gold-silver-diverge-central-bank-buying-supports-precious-metals","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Gold is drawing structural support from central bank buying, while silver is benefiting from improving industrial demand expectations as global manufacturing PMIs show tentative signs of recovery","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:52:23+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:52:23+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":4380.6,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4380.6 at expiry vs benchmark 4390.0","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-silver-diverge-central-bank-buying-supports-precious-metals"},{"id":"192952e4-90e9-4246-89bb-fe687e90ffbb","article_slug":"gold-silver-diverge-central-bank-buying-supports-precious-metals","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"WTI crude","symbol":"CL=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Oil support sits near $92 with resistance at $98","benchmark_price":99.99,"target_price":92.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:52:23+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:52:23+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":101.09,"outcome_note":"CL=F 101.09 at expiry vs target 92.0 (benchmark 99.99)","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-silver-diverge-central-bank-buying-supports-precious-metals"},{"id":"af999d78-4b21-4275-a8ee-1b01ad6e4b13","article_slug":"commodities-market-analysis-2026-09-10","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"Silver","symbol":"SI=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"For silver, a relapse in manufacturing activity would erase recent gains","benchmark_price":65.02,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:36:40+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:36:40+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":65.72,"outcome_note":"SI=F 65.72 at expiry vs benchmark 65.02","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/commodities-market-analysis-2026-09-10"},{"id":"d529cb92-fec0-47c1-b80d-19d491a1f1f2","article_slug":"commodities-market-analysis-2026-09-10","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"The key levels to watch are gold support at $4,400 and resistance at $4,500, silver support at $67 and resistance at $70","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":4.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:36:40+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:36:40+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"malformed target_price 4.0 (data error) on GC=F; unscoreable","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/commodities-market-analysis-2026-09-10"},{"id":"4eb22c29-038c-4ee0-8062-228c81438c28","article_slug":"commodities-market-analysis-2026-09-10","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Related Reading \n  [Gold Holds Above $4,400 as Silver ETFs Rally 2","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":4.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:36:40+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:36:40+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"malformed target_price 4.0 (data error) on GC=F; unscoreable","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/commodities-market-analysis-2026-09-10"},{"id":"c8680ca3-4b6c-4039-bc4b-d5039fcb473a","article_slug":"commodities-market-analysis-2026-09-10","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"USO","symbol":"USO","direction":"bullish","thesis":"However, the USO ETF gained 2","benchmark_price":154.9,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:36:40+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:36:40+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":155.31,"outcome_note":"USO 155.31 at expiry vs benchmark 154.9","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/commodities-market-analysis-2026-09-10"},{"id":"f23c6329-9b98-4e4c-ab06-ad69e47fdb7d","article_slug":"commodities-market-analysis-2026-09-10","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"WTI crude","symbol":"CL=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Oil prices retreated 0","benchmark_price":99.99,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:36:40+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:36:40+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":101.09,"outcome_note":"CL=F 101.09 at expiry vs benchmark 99.99","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/commodities-market-analysis-2026-09-10"},{"id":"a00de36f-bb35-4e04-a80b-cc96754f0996","article_slug":"commodities-market-analysis-2026-09-10","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Gold futures (GC=F) climbed 0","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:36:40+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:36:40+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4380.6,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4380.6 at expiry vs benchmark 4390.0","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/commodities-market-analysis-2026-09-10"},{"id":"c319d212-55eb-44c0-9859-1af5e3b2c76e","article_slug":"steady-expansion-not-overheating-why-the-fed-is-holding-pat","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"GLD","symbol":"GLD","direction":"bullish","thesis":"GLD gained 0","benchmark_price":398.77,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:35:04+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:35:04+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":398.36,"outcome_note":"GLD 398.36 at expiry vs benchmark 398.77","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/steady-expansion-not-overheating-why-the-fed-is-holding-pat"},{"id":"509397ab-091b-4e18-91d2-10d976f4e986","article_slug":"steady-expansion-not-overheating-why-the-fed-is-holding-pat","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"SPY and QQQ traded marginally lower on September 10, down 0","benchmark_price":52573.29,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:35:04+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:35:04+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":51778.04,"outcome_note":"^DJI 51778.04 at expiry vs benchmark 52573.29","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/steady-expansion-not-overheating-why-the-fed-is-holding-pat"},{"id":"ba826184-9a14-46ad-86e4-99eae83da8a1","article_slug":"steady-expansion-not-overheating-why-the-fed-is-holding-pat","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Silver","symbol":"SI=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Silver outperformed due to strong industrial demand plus monetary support","benchmark_price":65.02,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:35:04+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:35:04+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":65.72,"outcome_note":"SI=F 65.72 at expiry vs benchmark 65.02","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/steady-expansion-not-overheating-why-the-fed-is-holding-pat"},{"id":"0efde1af-7710-417a-8acc-91276c3d9102","article_slug":"steady-expansion-not-overheating-why-the-fed-is-holding-pat","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"IEF","symbol":"IEF","direction":"bearish","thesis":"57% and IEF dropped 0","benchmark_price":91.01,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:35:04+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:35:04+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":91.25,"outcome_note":"IEF 91.25 at expiry vs benchmark 91.01","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/steady-expansion-not-overheating-why-the-fed-is-holding-pat"},{"id":"9c8a819e-45d3-4174-b81d-76bcf7a64757","article_slug":"steady-expansion-not-overheating-why-the-fed-is-holding-pat","analyst":"Sarah 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Moderates","benchmark_price":25.6,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:35:04+00:00","due_at":"2026-10-10T09:35:04+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/steady-expansion-not-overheating-why-the-fed-is-holding-pat"},{"id":"558de84b-fcb1-487b-a104-bb34f526d0f5","article_slug":"agent-yield-curve-steepens-as-treasury-yields-rise-to-4-8","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Bitcoin gained 0","benchmark_price":77322.73,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:18:18+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:18:18+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":76454.83,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 76454.83 at expiry vs benchmark 77322.73","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/agent-yield-curve-steepens-as-treasury-yields-rise-to-4-8"},{"id":"ad958703-7e19-4cb8-a50a-58282763bb87","article_slug":"agent-yield-curve-steepens-as-treasury-yields-rise-to-4-8","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"US 10-year yield","symbol":"^TNX","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Treasury yields have climbed to elevated levels, with the 10-year yield at 4","benchmark_price":4.97,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:18:18+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:18:18+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4.95,"outcome_note":"^TNX 4.95 at expiry vs benchmark 4.97","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/agent-yield-curve-steepens-as-treasury-yields-rise-to-4-8"},{"id":"a60f0f45-1e37-4ca1-9aab-e7c32da47a53","article_slug":"agent-yield-curve-steepens-as-treasury-yields-rise-to-4-8","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) ETFs gained 0","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:18:18+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:18:18+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4380.6,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4380.6 at expiry vs benchmark 4390.0","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/agent-yield-curve-steepens-as-treasury-yields-rise-to-4-8"},{"id":"fca0df40-2d40-47f0-b305-c496e01e0f04","article_slug":"agent-yield-curve-steepens-as-treasury-yields-rise-to-4-8","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Equities posted slight declines, with SPY down 0","benchmark_price":52573.29,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:18:18+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:18:18+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":51778.04,"outcome_note":"^DJI 51778.04 at expiry vs benchmark 52573.29","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/agent-yield-curve-steepens-as-treasury-yields-rise-to-4-8"},{"id":"cbea9cb4-dbc2-4c3c-b65e-6bbb3f211eb6","article_slug":"gold-holds-4400-silver-etfs-rally-2-3-percent","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"This physical demand is what has allowed gold to hold $4,400 support despite ETF outflows in recent weeks","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":4.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:13:39+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:13:39+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"malformed target_price 4.0 (data error) on GC=F; unscoreable","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-holds-4400-silver-etfs-rally-2-3-percent"},{"id":"27293c01-6656-441a-8e34-0357f5d7104a","article_slug":"gold-holds-4400-silver-etfs-rally-2-3-percent","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"That positioning supports the case for further upside if gold can break through resistance at $4,500","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":4.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:13:39+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:13:39+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"malformed target_price 4.0 (data error) on GC=F; unscoreable","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-holds-4400-silver-etfs-rally-2-3-percent"},{"id":"56067a93-fc99-44fc-85c7-71093a7d3563","article_slug":"gold-holds-4400-silver-etfs-rally-2-3-percent","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"CFTC positioning data as of September 1 shows managed money is firmly net long gold, holding 950 contracts against zero shorts","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:13:39+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:13:39+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4380.6,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4380.6 at expiry vs benchmark 4390.0","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-holds-4400-silver-etfs-rally-2-3-percent"},{"id":"c5da7935-ad37-4441-9542-0bd0bcf3d88c","article_slug":"gold-holds-4400-silver-etfs-rally-2-3-percent","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"USO","symbol":"USO","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The USO ETF gained 2","benchmark_price":154.9,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:13:39+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:13:39+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":155.31,"outcome_note":"USO 155.31 at expiry vs benchmark 154.9","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-holds-4400-silver-etfs-rally-2-3-percent"},{"id":"f6a4a8a0-0203-425a-baaf-27794e1a90e5","article_slug":"gold-holds-4400-silver-etfs-rally-2-3-percent","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Central bank gold purchases remain a structural support","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:13:39+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:13:39+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":4380.6,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4380.6 at expiry vs benchmark 4390.0","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-holds-4400-silver-etfs-rally-2-3-percent"},{"id":"312583be-ea4f-4e6e-8e3f-b859504b958b","article_slug":"bond-yields-gold-prices","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"The fundamental backdrop for gold remains supportive","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:06:19+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:06:19+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":4380.6,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4380.6 at expiry vs benchmark 4390.0","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bond-yields-gold-prices"},{"id":"fd4cf1ef-45c5-43f2-99bb-5f6ad3540540","article_slug":"bond-yields-gold-prices","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Silver","symbol":"SI=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"For silver, a relapse in manufacturing activity would erase recent gains, as the industrial demand component would weaken","benchmark_price":65.02,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:06:19+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:06:19+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":65.72,"outcome_note":"SI=F 65.72 at expiry vs benchmark 65.02","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bond-yields-gold-prices"},{"id":"b34bb43c-02e9-481d-8b74-375cb17ff05c","article_slug":"bond-yields-gold-prices","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Silver","symbol":"SI=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Support on silver comes in at $67, with resistance at $70","benchmark_price":65.02,"target_price":67.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:06:19+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:06:19+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":65.72,"outcome_note":"SI=F 65.72 at expiry vs target 67.0 (benchmark 65.02)","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bond-yields-gold-prices"},{"id":"913fd08f-c4b8-4ed1-a81c-a4e016e362b2","article_slug":"bond-yields-gold-prices","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"US 10-year yield","symbol":"^TNX","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Rising commodity prices could also feed into inflation expectations, potentially delaying Fed rate cuts and keeping Treasury yields higher","benchmark_price":4.97,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:06:19+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:06:19+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4.95,"outcome_note":"^TNX 4.95 at expiry vs benchmark 4.97","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bond-yields-gold-prices"},{"id":"d6a02b33-62cd-4873-8d84-19a528e43942","article_slug":"bond-yields-gold-prices","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Silver","symbol":"SI=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Recent global manufacturing PMIs have shown tentative signs of recovery, which supports the industrial demand thesis for silver","benchmark_price":65.02,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:06:19+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:06:19+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":65.72,"outcome_note":"SI=F 65.72 at expiry vs benchmark 65.02","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bond-yields-gold-prices"},{"id":"f1be622b-e746-4526-9641-88061da00590","article_slug":"bond-yields-gold-prices","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"our gold coverage  futures are holding above the $4,400 support level at $4,472","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":4.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:06:19+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:06:19+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"malformed target_price 4.0 (data error) on GC=F; unscoreable","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bond-yields-gold-prices"},{"id":"357f6dba-8288-4ec9-be8d-b952255332cc","article_slug":"bond-yields-gold-prices","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Gold Traders Take Profits, But Positioning Stays Bullish  purchases remain strong from emerging markets supporting physical market","benchmark_price":4390.0,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:06:19+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:06:19+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4380.6,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4380.6 at expiry vs benchmark 4390.0","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bond-yields-gold-prices"},{"id":"bcd04669-5ea2-491a-9d30-2c6f75bdde06","article_slug":"bond-yields-gold-prices","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"GDX","symbol":"GDX","direction":"bearish","thesis":"dollar and support mining equities such as GDX and SIL","benchmark_price":97.1,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:06:19+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:06:19+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":95.92,"outcome_note":"GDX 95.92 at expiry vs benchmark 97.1","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bond-yields-gold-prices"},{"id":"861d2253-9f65-447b-8602-6eed297b51ff","article_slug":"bond-yields-gold-prices","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"WTI crude","symbol":"CL=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Oil prices retreated 0","benchmark_price":99.99,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:06:19+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:06:19+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":101.09,"outcome_note":"CL=F 101.09 at expiry vs benchmark 99.99","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bond-yields-gold-prices"},{"id":"51a3af6e-09e1-470b-af91-3f2246dca0ca","article_slug":"bond-yields-gold-prices","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"USD","symbol":"USD","direction":"bearish","thesis":"The price action shows consolidation near recent highs, with the metal finding support from emerging market banks diversifying away from USD holdings","benchmark_price":86.06,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-10T09:06:19+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-17T09:06:19+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"symbol 'USD' not a quotable Yahoo symbol; unscoreable","scored_at":"2026-09-17T21:48:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bond-yields-gold-prices"},{"id":"9e960b9f-26d0-4e01-997f-34f426b7fc7c","article_slug":"central-bank-gold-buying-supports-bullish-positioning","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Gold speculators trimmed their net long positions by 15,000 contracts last week, but the market remains overwhelmingly bullish","benchmark_price":4476.6,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-09-07T10:20:57+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-28T10:20:57+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/central-bank-gold-buying-supports-bullish-positioning"},{"id":"dc7740e9-6178-40fc-92f8-c1b76d34396e","article_slug":"equities-market-analysis-sector-rotation-and-breadth-divergence","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Crypto: Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have shown a decreasing correlation with equities in recent weeks; a stable-to-higher dollar (UUP +0","benchmark_price":79196.46,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-09-07T09:59:56+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-28T09:59:56+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/equities-market-analysis-sector-rotation-and-breadth-divergence"},{"id":"8016f333-c8b4-4838-9611-a9024d22b59c","article_slug":"equities-market-analysis-sector-rotation-and-breadth-divergence","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The primary watch level remains SPY 772 for renewed bullish momentum, with downside protection at IWM 200-day moving average","benchmark_price":53414.25,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-07T09:59:56+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-14T09:59:56+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":52421.2,"outcome_note":"^DJI 52421.2 vs benchmark 53414.25 -> miss","scored_at":"2026-09-14T21:36:36+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/equities-market-analysis-sector-rotation-and-breadth-divergence"},{"id":"88aa9764-4239-4327-85ae-b4ee0921d833","article_slug":"week-ahead-september-7-11-what-markets-are-watching","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"neutral","thesis":"By Friday's close, the data should clarify whether the disinflation trend remains intact or whether the summer slowdown was merely a pause","benchmark_price":53414.25,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-06T13:30:30+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-13T13:30:30+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":52421.2,"outcome_note":"^DJI 52421.2 vs benchmark 53414.25 rel 0.0186 (neutral ±2% band) -> hit","scored_at":"2026-09-14T21:36:36+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/week-ahead-september-7-11-what-markets-are-watching"},{"id":"fd0051b6-336b-4e45-b6f1-3e4c2650a355","article_slug":"september-payrolls-beat-higher-for-longer-fed-policy","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"10-Year Treasury","symbol":"^TNX","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.77%, but the market's muted reaction suggests investors are not pricing the \"higher for longer\" scenario.","benchmark_price":4.78,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":118,"made_at":"2026-09-04T17:45:55+00:00","due_at":"2026-12-31T17:45:55+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/september-payrolls-beat-higher-for-longer-fed-policy"},{"id":"7f1506e4-b40c-474b-a9ae-18d8897287c6","article_slug":"september-payrolls-beat-higher-for-longer-fed-policy","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The S&amp;P 500 slipped 0.4%, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.77%, and gold fell 0.9%.","benchmark_price":4477.2,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":118,"made_at":"2026-09-04T17:45:55+00:00","due_at":"2026-12-31T17:45:55+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/september-payrolls-beat-higher-for-longer-fed-policy"},{"id":"8a16d533-342e-4ea4-82dc-84918e6b42c4","article_slug":"fed-balance-sheet-6-74-trillion","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Related Reading \n \n  Beyond the Fed Rate Decision: What Q2 Growth and Yield Curve Signals Mean for Markets    Oil Market Deep Dive: Supply-Demand Imbalance and Price Targets    Fed Policy Impact on Treasury Yields and Gold: September 2026 Analysis    our Fed policy coverage  \n \n \n\n  Related Reading    Key Economic Indicators to Watch This Week    What to Watch: September Jobs Report    Fed Policy Impact on Treasury Yields and Gold: September 2026 Analysis","benchmark_price":4477.2,"target_price":26.0,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-09-04T15:51:51+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-25T15:51:51+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"void: explicit target 26.0 not a meaningful gold price level (GC=F trades ~4.3k); applying literally would force a charitable hit","scored_at":"2026-09-25T21:43:24+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/fed-balance-sheet-6-74-trillion"},{"id":"62de7860-94a7-4c82-94ec-1ae5a901eda1","article_slug":"key-economic-indicators-this-week","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Nasdaq-100","symbol":"^NDX","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Equities rallied hard on Friday with the S&amp;P 500 ETF gaining 1.05% and the Nasdaq-100 ETF up 1.19%, yet the real story sits in the cross-asset relationships.","benchmark_price":29544.15,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-04T09:15:10+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-11T09:15:10+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":29368.44,"outcome_note":"^NDX 29368.44 at expiry vs benchmark 29544.15","scored_at":"2026-09-11T21:38:10+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/key-economic-indicators-this-week"},{"id":"eca67252-292d-45e8-b249-ac9213385774","article_slug":"key-economic-indicators-this-week","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Key Takeaways  \n   SPY and QQQ both gained over 1% on Friday, signaling risk appetite remains strong despite gold's surge.","benchmark_price":4477.2,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-04T09:15:10+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-11T09:15:10+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4390.0,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4390.0 at expiry vs benchmark 4477.2","scored_at":"2026-09-11T21:38:11+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/key-economic-indicators-this-week"},{"id":"76273f94-a13a-4ac2-8836-56c6d0c2c92d","article_slug":"macro-landscape-inflation-moderates-growth-holds","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"10-Year Treasury","symbol":"^TNX","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.63% in August while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.79%, signaling bond markets expect persistent inflation pressure despite the Fed's wait-and-see posture.","benchmark_price":4.78,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":118,"made_at":"2026-09-03T10:55:45+00:00","due_at":"2026-12-30T10:55:45+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/macro-landscape-inflation-moderates-growth-holds"},{"id":"9e018ab4-c44d-46b0-b091-86b2485c526a","article_slug":"macro-landscape-inflation-moderates-growth-holds","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"Dxy","symbol":"DX-Y.NYB","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The DXY index edged down 0.14% on the day, but its broader uptrend remains intact, supported by relatively higher U.S.","benchmark_price":99.16,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-03T10:55:45+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-10T10:55:45+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":99.08,"outcome_note":"DX-Y.NYB 99.08 at expiry vs benchmark 99.16","scored_at":"2026-09-10T21:35:10+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/macro-landscape-inflation-moderates-growth-holds"},{"id":"cd0cf559-6964-4c44-9f09-8b37197eaa1f","article_slug":"gold-and-silver-break-out-as-geopolitical-tensions-intensify","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Money managers increased their net long gold positions by 12,000 contracts in the latest week, bringing total long exposure to its highest level since March 2023.","benchmark_price":4477.2,"target_price":23.0,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-09-03T10:11:25+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-24T10:11:25+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":4310.1,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4310.10 at expiry; recorded target_price 23.0 is malformed for gold (source article states $4,400 target, benchmark 4477.20); applying 23.0 literally forces a guaranteed hit -> void to avoid a charitable score","scored_at":"2026-09-24T21:32:07+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-and-silver-break-out-as-geopolitical-tensions-intensify"},{"id":"3cf6f41c-dd69-4d9d-981b-45fd2eb08e70","article_slug":"gold-and-silver-break-out-as-geopolitical-tensions-intensify","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict saw gold surge 18% over three months, while the 2019 trade war escalation drove a 22% gain.","benchmark_price":4477.2,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-09-03T10:11:25+00:00","due_at":"2026-10-03T10:11:25+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-and-silver-break-out-as-geopolitical-tensions-intensify"},{"id":"c3876b05-d475-4841-a612-a37d1d724eb0","article_slug":"gold-vs-treasury-yields-precious-metals-outperform-equities","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"10-Year Treasury","symbol":"^TNX","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Yet the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.79% even with the Federal Reserve holding rates steady at 3.63%.","benchmark_price":4.78,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":118,"made_at":"2026-09-03T09:48:27+00:00","due_at":"2026-12-30T09:48:27+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-vs-treasury-yields-precious-metals-outperform-equities"},{"id":"6aff27ab-60a2-4cfe-828f-6eb1ac28b92b","article_slug":"gold-vs-treasury-yields-precious-metals-outperform-equities","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Gold  and silver ETFs both advanced more than 1.5% on Wednesday as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drove safe-haven demand, while  equities  and other commodities showed mixed momentum.","benchmark_price":4477.2,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-03T09:48:27+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-10T09:48:27+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4358.5,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4358.5 at expiry vs benchmark 4477.2","scored_at":"2026-09-10T21:35:10+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-vs-treasury-yields-precious-metals-outperform-equities"},{"id":"86d7180e-d0a4-408c-8fd1-4de38547b2bd","article_slug":"small-caps-shine-sector-rotation-accelerates","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"10-Year Treasury","symbol":"^TNX","direction":"neutral","thesis":"The 10-year Treasury yield's direction will provide context on whether rate expectations remain stable or begin to shift.","benchmark_price":4.78,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":118,"made_at":"2026-09-03T09:31:26+00:00","due_at":"2026-12-30T09:31:26+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/small-caps-shine-sector-rotation-accelerates"},{"id":"755114ca-a03f-4e20-a03d-dc5401decda1","article_slug":"liquidity-vs-yields-september-2026-macro-deep-dive","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Key Takeaways \n   \n     M2 money supply expanded 0.44% in July to $23.2 trillion, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth above 0.3% \n     10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.79%, up 84 basis points from recent lows, signaling market skepticism about inflation \n     Gold and silver surged on geopolitical tensions, with GLD up 1.52% and SLV gaining 1.99% \n     The labor market tightened further with unemployment falling to 4.1%, raising wage pressure concerns \n     Cross-asset divergence s","benchmark_price":4477.2,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-09-03T09:28:40+00:00","due_at":"2026-10-03T09:28:40+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/liquidity-vs-yields-september-2026-macro-deep-dive"},{"id":"94f036ca-aaf9-4a30-9c44-64f59dc1954e","article_slug":"liquidity-vs-yields-september-2026-macro-deep-dive","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"10-Year Treasury","symbol":"^TNX","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.79%, up 4 basis points in a week and 84 basis points from recent lows.","benchmark_price":4.78,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-09-03T09:28:40+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-24T09:28:40+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":5.16,"outcome_note":"^TNX 5.16 at expiry vs benchmark 4.78; bullish needs outcome > benchmark -> hit","scored_at":"2026-09-24T21:32:07+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/liquidity-vs-yields-september-2026-macro-deep-dive"},{"id":"aed55f7c-9aca-4c53-b513-92ba7000219e","article_slug":"oil-slides-on-venezuela-supply-fears","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Crude Oil","symbol":"CL=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Crude oil futures dropped 1.11% to $90.00 per barrel on Thursday, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.","benchmark_price":91.22,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-09-03T09:10:23+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-10T09:10:23+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":103.93,"outcome_note":"CL=F 103.93 at expiry vs benchmark 91.22","scored_at":"2026-09-10T21:35:07+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/oil-slides-on-venezuela-supply-fears"},{"id":"d411a425-7d38-4d4c-a01a-21e1025aa7bf","article_slug":"are-central-banks-buying-silver","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"A break above $65 would open a path to $68, which was the March peak","benchmark_price":4504.1,"target_price":68.0,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-28T10:47:03+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-27T10:47:03+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/are-central-banks-buying-silver"},{"id":"e33e17e0-9c41-4f7d-b8d5-ad674086bc05","article_slug":"are-central-banks-buying-silver","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"07 would open a path to $440, which is the next major resistance level from the May high","benchmark_price":4504.1,"target_price":440.0,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-28T10:47:03+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-27T10:47:03+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/are-central-banks-buying-silver"},{"id":"7ee8c6fc-9a76-4125-966c-bad8ce1b032f","article_slug":"july-pce-core-inflation-holds-33","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Gold took the hardest hit, with SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) down 1","benchmark_price":4647.8,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-26T16:55:52+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-02T16:55:52+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":4434.3,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4434.3 at expiry vs benchmark 4647.8 (no target)","scored_at":"2026-09-02T21:33:15+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/july-pce-core-inflation-holds-33"},{"id":"9138ae6f-b621-4858-94d6-6242f2d3fc67","article_slug":"july-pce-core-inflation-holds-33","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"What it does add is a second data point suggesting the household sector's income growth is real and coming from wages and benefits, not from drawing down savings or from one-time transfers","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-26T16:55:52+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-02T16:55:52+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":53061.95,"outcome_note":"^DJI 53061.95 at expiry vs benchmark 53463.88 (no target)","scored_at":"2026-09-02T21:33:14+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/july-pce-core-inflation-holds-33"},{"id":"4b02c588-ff10-46ba-b0ad-6f87a9ccdbf6","article_slug":"july-pce-core-inflation-holds-33","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"2% on the month after ticking down 0","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-26T16:55:52+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-25T16:55:52+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":51828.62,"outcome_note":"^DJI 51828.62 vs benchmark 53463.88 (bearish); outcome 51828.62 < benchmark -> hit","scored_at":"2026-09-25T21:43:24+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/july-pce-core-inflation-holds-33"},{"id":"6c81a16d-f809-4799-96b6-04cb11d6c132","article_slug":"q2-2026-gdp-second-estimate-1-5-percent-price-index-6-4-percent","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"5% annual rate in the second quarter, unchanged from the initial reading and down from 2","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":90,"made_at":"2026-08-26T16:54:32+00:00","due_at":"2026-11-24T16:54:32+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/q2-2026-gdp-second-estimate-1-5-percent-price-index-6-4-percent"},{"id":"a8564f91-ce78-4cb4-aedd-e372577eb033","article_slug":"q2-2026-gdp-second-estimate-1-5-percent-price-index-6-4-percent","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"5% annual rate in Q2 2026, unrevised from the advance estimate and down from 2","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-26T16:54:32+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-02T16:54:32+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":53061.95,"outcome_note":"^DJI 53061.95 at expiry vs benchmark 53463.88 (no target)","scored_at":"2026-09-02T21:33:13+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/q2-2026-gdp-second-estimate-1-5-percent-price-index-6-4-percent"},{"id":"df880293-dc0e-4024-8ba7-1a9f30c732f5","article_slug":"gdp-second-estimate-july-pce-test-a-tape-near-highs","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"34%), while Utilities (XLU, down 5","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-26T13:57:29+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-02T13:57:29+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":53061.95,"outcome_note":"^DJI 53061.95 at expiry vs benchmark 53463.88 (no target)","scored_at":"2026-09-02T21:33:11+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gdp-second-estimate-july-pce-test-a-tape-near-highs"},{"id":"cad720c3-906a-4bdd-9e1a-b1dd3e306820","article_slug":"gdp-second-estimate-july-pce-test-a-tape-near-highs","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Related Reading Tech Slides as Defensive Sectors Lead the Rotation Defensive Sectors Rally as Tech Drags Nasdaq Down 1% Equities Breadth Widens Into a Loaded Catalyst Week","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-26T13:57:29+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-02T13:57:29+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":53061.95,"outcome_note":"^DJI 53061.95 at expiry vs benchmark 53463.88 (no target)","scored_at":"2026-09-02T21:33:12+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gdp-second-estimate-july-pce-test-a-tape-near-highs"},{"id":"36080945-5c3d-4081-9649-af6c565f5c4e","article_slug":"apld-stock-jumps-7-3-percent-tuesday","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"16, yet down more than a third over three months and still 43% under its high, is behaving like a high-beta bet on a narrative, not confirming a new uptrend on one strong session","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-26T09:44:37+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-25T09:44:37+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":51828.62,"outcome_note":"^DJI 51828.62 vs benchmark 53463.88 (bearish); outcome 51828.62 < benchmark -> hit","scored_at":"2026-09-25T21:43:24+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/apld-stock-jumps-7-3-percent-tuesday"},{"id":"c222daaf-58d5-48bf-b35e-43728002eee0","article_slug":"apld-stock-jumps-7-3-percent-tuesday","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"73, and it remains down 36","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-26T09:44:37+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-02T09:44:37+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":53061.95,"outcome_note":"^DJI 53061.95 at expiry vs benchmark 53463.88 (no target)","scored_at":"2026-09-02T21:33:10+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/apld-stock-jumps-7-3-percent-tuesday"},{"id":"91d72aad-3188-4d6d-b1b5-24ff97587cfe","article_slug":"bitcoin-etf-flows-price-tops-80000","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"crypto","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"bullish","thesis":"28%, and Strategy Inc (MSTR), which carries bitcoin directly on its balance sheet, is up 3","benchmark_price":78777.17,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-26T09:38:18+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-02T09:38:18+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":77227.06,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 77227.06 at expiry vs benchmark 78777.17 (no target)","scored_at":"2026-09-02T21:33:09+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bitcoin-etf-flows-price-tops-80000"},{"id":"1362774a-90e5-499b-8538-cd8f2c186f43","article_slug":"nvidias-cheap-multiple-amds-memory-cost","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The MI455X's jump to 432GB of onboard HBM4, up 50% from the prior generation's 288GB, is a direct response to customers pushing for larger context windows and bigger models","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-26T09:37:43+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-02T09:37:43+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":53061.95,"outcome_note":"^DJI 53061.95 at expiry vs benchmark 53463.88 (no target)","scored_at":"2026-09-02T21:33:08+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/nvidias-cheap-multiple-amds-memory-cost"},{"id":"2a64993a-58bb-4f8a-9858-9c7bfc5512ec","article_slug":"nvidias-cheap-multiple-amds-memory-cost","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"If Wednesday's guidance merely meets rather than beats already-elevated expectations, the cheaper-after-earnings thesis breaks down in the near term","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-26T09:37:43+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-02T09:37:43+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":53061.95,"outcome_note":"^DJI 53061.95 at expiry vs benchmark 53463.88 (no target)","scored_at":"2026-09-02T21:33:07+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/nvidias-cheap-multiple-amds-memory-cost"},{"id":"64f1aecf-2cf2-4d38-990e-7899f64ce709","article_slug":"july-fomc-liquidity-drain-hawkish-dissent","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"The ON RRP balance sat near $78 billion a year ago and has ground down to essentially zero over the past several months, removing the shock absorber that let money funds recycle cash through the Fed i","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":78.0,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-26T09:25:30+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-25T09:25:30+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"void: explicit target 78.0 not a meaningful Dow price level (asset trades ~51.8k); malformed target cannot be compared mechanically","scored_at":"2026-09-25T21:43:24+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/july-fomc-liquidity-drain-hawkish-dissent"},{"id":"bc01b892-219b-4fb2-a1ae-5ee3372ef5f9","article_slug":"july-fomc-liquidity-drain-hawkish-dissent","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Unemployment ticked down to 4","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-26T09:25:30+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-02T09:25:30+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":53061.95,"outcome_note":"^DJI 53061.95 at expiry vs benchmark 53463.88 (no target)","scored_at":"2026-09-02T21:33:05+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/july-fomc-liquidity-drain-hawkish-dissent"},{"id":"c15057fa-7d53-478b-aa2e-2ec0c45b13de","article_slug":"july-fomc-liquidity-drain-hawkish-dissent","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"6 billion as of August 19, down modestly from $963","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":963.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-26T09:25:30+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-02T09:25:30+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":53061.95,"outcome_note":"^DJI 53061.95 at expiry vs target 963.0 (benchmark 53463.88)","scored_at":"2026-09-02T21:33:06+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/july-fomc-liquidity-drain-hawkish-dissent"},{"id":"9c88c731-e958-443d-ad7a-fa7a7595f5c9","article_slug":"gold-hits-4695-oil-breaks-80-copper-nears-high","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"COMEX gold managed-money net longs rose to 222,189 contracts in the week ended August 18, up roughly 4,250 contracts from the prior week","benchmark_price":4647.8,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-26T09:18:56+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-02T09:18:56+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4434.3,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4434.3 at expiry vs benchmark 4647.8 (no target)","scored_at":"2026-09-02T21:32:59+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-hits-4695-oil-breaks-80-copper-nears-high"},{"id":"d10d2c0e-2823-4266-bbcb-6455cbf4aca5","article_slug":"gold-hits-4695-oil-breaks-80-copper-nears-high","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bullish","thesis":"It is precious metals up on macro tailwinds, industrial metals and grains holding firm on demand that has not cracked, energy breaking down on a mix of softer demand signals and an unwound risk premiu","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-26T09:18:56+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-02T09:18:56+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":53061.95,"outcome_note":"^DJI 53061.95 at expiry vs benchmark 53463.88 (no target)","scored_at":"2026-09-02T21:33:04+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-hits-4695-oil-breaks-80-copper-nears-high"},{"id":"c94f52d5-daa4-4b8f-9614-22ac9e0e74da","article_slug":"gold-hits-4695-oil-breaks-80-copper-nears-high","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"gold-copper-commodities-analysis Now to the piece of this complex that broke down hardest","benchmark_price":4647.8,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-26T09:18:56+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-02T09:18:56+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":4434.3,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4434.3 at expiry vs benchmark 4647.8 (no target)","scored_at":"2026-09-02T21:33:04+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-hits-4695-oil-breaks-80-copper-nears-high"},{"id":"999d3628-c733-4e7a-8855-d825b9b935d9","article_slug":"gold-hits-4695-oil-breaks-80-copper-nears-high","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Gold's setup remains constructive as long as the dollar stays soft and yields keep drifting lower, with $4,600 to $4,630 as the level that would confirm a healthy pullback rather than a trend break","benchmark_price":4647.8,"target_price":4.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-26T09:18:56+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-02T09:18:56+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4434.3,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4434.3 at expiry vs target 4.0 (benchmark 4647.8)","scored_at":"2026-09-02T21:32:58+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-hits-4695-oil-breaks-80-copper-nears-high"},{"id":"de5a8d1c-1f2d-4362-a3ab-2a8bbd1644ff","article_slug":"gold-hits-4695-oil-breaks-80-copper-nears-high","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"That combination, a soft dollar and falling real yields, is the textbook tailwind for a non-yielding asset like gold, and the price action has tracked it cleanly: five straight up days carried gold fr","benchmark_price":4647.8,"target_price":4.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-26T09:18:56+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-02T09:18:56+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":4434.3,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4434.3 at expiry vs target 4.0 (benchmark 4647.8)","scored_at":"2026-09-02T21:33:02+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-hits-4695-oil-breaks-80-copper-nears-high"},{"id":"5687191a-7aa1-4c8e-98c0-49bb9e47b677","article_slug":"gold-hits-4695-oil-breaks-80-copper-nears-high","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Over the trailing three months, WTI is down 13","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-26T09:18:56+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-25T09:18:56+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":51828.62,"outcome_note":"^DJI 51828.62 vs benchmark 53463.88 (bearish); outcome 51828.62 < benchmark -> hit","scored_at":"2026-09-25T21:43:24+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-hits-4695-oil-breaks-80-copper-nears-high"},{"id":"b0d145dd-f667-4909-a85a-646cc6a6b6ba","article_slug":"gold-hits-4695-oil-breaks-80-copper-nears-high","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"64% today, down more than a full point from its recent range","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-26T09:18:56+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-02T09:18:56+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":53061.95,"outcome_note":"^DJI 53061.95 at expiry vs benchmark 53463.88 (no target)","scored_at":"2026-09-02T21:33:00+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-hits-4695-oil-breaks-80-copper-nears-high"},{"id":"67a4626f-3003-4b62-ab45-319107c094c2","article_slug":"gold-hits-4695-oil-breaks-80-copper-nears-high","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Silver","symbol":"SI=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"00 would say the opposite, that silver is deleveraging into weakness rather than consolidating before a move higher","benchmark_price":68.08,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-26T09:18:56+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-02T09:18:56+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":65.93,"outcome_note":"SI=F 65.93 at expiry vs benchmark 68.08 (no target)","scored_at":"2026-09-02T21:33:03+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-hits-4695-oil-breaks-80-copper-nears-high"},{"id":"6e79ac65-3f29-4f39-a5a2-b70b7996cb6e","article_slug":"iran-sanctions-oil-gold-crypto-divergence","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"With Iran-to-China flows already down 35% month over month, the market has measurably less slack to absorb a further disruption than the day's price action alone would suggest","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-26T09:12:37+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-25T09:12:37+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":51828.62,"outcome_note":"^DJI 51828.62 vs benchmark 53463.88 (bearish); outcome 51828.62 < benchmark -> hit","scored_at":"2026-09-25T21:43:24+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/iran-sanctions-oil-gold-crypto-divergence"},{"id":"b70de62c-77b2-415c-9b56-ac20ddfd6a77","article_slug":"iran-sanctions-oil-gold-crypto-divergence","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Related reading: Gold Positioning Confirms Rally Oil Prices , Gold Silver Momentum Confirmed Oil Prices Hormuz Risk , Bitcoin Tops 80K Etf Inflows 10 Month High","benchmark_price":4647.8,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-26T09:12:37+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-25T09:12:37+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4320.5,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4320.5 at expiry vs benchmark 4647.8 (bullish); outcome 4320.5 < benchmark 4647.8 -> miss","scored_at":"2026-09-25T21:43:24+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/iran-sanctions-oil-gold-crypto-divergence"},{"id":"feef1067-2a41-4926-b33e-62eb6fe2e83a","article_slug":"iran-sanctions-oil-gold-crypto-divergence","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"neutral","thesis":"Bitcoin and Ethereum both showed neutral, low-confidence signals in the research behind this piece, because there is no direct mechanism connecting a Treasury compliance warning to spot crypto prices ","benchmark_price":78785.54,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-26T09:12:37+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-02T09:12:37+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":77229.18,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 77229.18 at expiry vs benchmark 78785.54 (no target)","scored_at":"2026-09-02T21:32:55+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/iran-sanctions-oil-gold-crypto-divergence"},{"id":"2ae6c217-8d82-4231-b599-f141a5f1c9e7","article_slug":"iran-sanctions-oil-gold-crypto-divergence","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"macro","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Gold, silver, and long bonds are picking up a modest, genuine safe-haven bid that has room to grow if the situation escalates further","benchmark_price":4647.8,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-26T09:12:37+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-02T09:12:37+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4434.3,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4434.3 at expiry vs benchmark 4647.8 (no target)","scored_at":"2026-09-02T21:32:54+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/iran-sanctions-oil-gold-crypto-divergence"},{"id":"9a0f9980-7730-4ed8-a0f9-6ac85aa8dbdb","article_slug":"bitcoin-tops-80k-etf-inflows-10-month-high","analyst":"Priya Kapoor","sector":"crypto","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bullish","thesis":"US equities were down the same session, and the rally is running alongside two live catalysts: a debt-crisis hedge narrative gaining traction among macro investors, and the CLARITY Act, the market-str","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-25T15:11:12+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-01T15:11:12+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":52766.88,"outcome_note":"^DJI 52766.88 at expiry vs benchmark 53463.88","scored_at":"2026-09-01T21:35:14+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bitcoin-tops-80k-etf-inflows-10-month-high"},{"id":"928ea0dc-306d-43aa-a838-601e073a37ff","article_slug":"bitcoin-tops-80k-etf-inflows-10-month-high","analyst":"Priya Kapoor","sector":"crypto","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"bullish","thesis":"00% the same day Bitcoin gained over two percent, a divergence from the Nasdaq-correlated pattern that has explained most of Bitcoin's 2026 moves","benchmark_price":78604.52,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-25T15:11:12+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-01T15:11:12+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"Invalid extraction: past-tense observation, not a forward-looking call","scored_at":"2026-08-25T21:38:03+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bitcoin-tops-80k-etf-inflows-10-month-high"},{"id":"fa1bc2ca-63f5-459a-925b-45ec1029c7f3","article_slug":"defensive-sectors-lead-rotation-tech-slides","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Strip out one sector and the tape tells a completely different story: the Dow (DIA) closed higher on the same session that QQQ fell a full 1","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-25T09:57:05+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-01T09:57:05+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":52766.88,"outcome_note":"^DJI 52766.88 at expiry vs benchmark 53463.88","scored_at":"2026-09-01T21:35:14+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/defensive-sectors-lead-rotation-tech-slides"},{"id":"dfeeec2d-e0f0-4c00-8268-b98238e2d142","article_slug":"defensive-sectors-lead-rotation-tech-slides","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Small caps underperformed on the risk-off day, with IWM down 0","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-25T09:57:05+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-01T09:57:05+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":52766.88,"outcome_note":"^DJI 52766.88 at expiry vs benchmark 53463.88","scored_at":"2026-09-01T21:35:13+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/defensive-sectors-lead-rotation-tech-slides"},{"id":"313cc71e-904d-43ac-99e0-8283b1bf5e20","article_slug":"bitcoin-etf-flows-surge-price-tops-80k","analyst":"Priya Kapoor","sector":"crypto","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Bitcoin traded above $80,000 on Tuesday, up 2","benchmark_price":78771.96,"target_price":80.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-25T09:46:20+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-01T09:46:20+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":77011.62,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 77011.62 at expiry vs benchmark 78771.96 target 80.0","scored_at":"2026-09-01T21:35:11+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bitcoin-etf-flows-surge-price-tops-80k"},{"id":"1f6b333f-acc1-49b8-bcaf-b989a007a007","article_slug":"bitcoin-etf-flows-surge-price-tops-80k","analyst":"Priya Kapoor","sector":"crypto","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Nasdaq beta has explained most of Bitcoin's swings this year, so a rally that holds while tech stocks soften points to a crypto-specific driver rather than a broad risk-on trade","benchmark_price":78771.96,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-25T09:46:20+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-01T09:46:20+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":77011.62,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 77011.62 at expiry vs benchmark 78771.96","scored_at":"2026-09-01T21:35:12+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bitcoin-etf-flows-surge-price-tops-80k"},{"id":"0c2cce6d-b247-47da-9272-c9624d06705d","article_slug":"bitcoin-etf-flows-surge-price-tops-80k","analyst":"Priya Kapoor","sector":"crypto","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Bitcoin traded above $80,000 on Tuesday, up 2","benchmark_price":78604.52,"target_price":80000.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-25T09:46:20+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-01T09:46:20+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"Invalid extraction: not a forward-looking falsifiable call","scored_at":"2026-08-25T21:38:37+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bitcoin-etf-flows-surge-price-tops-80k"},{"id":"1d6096f3-fe7d-4776-862e-494f6fcc6ace","article_slug":"fed-holds-rates-july-cpi-payrolls-negative","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Unemployment actually ticked down to 4","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-25T09:44:16+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-01T09:44:16+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":52766.88,"outcome_note":"^DJI 52766.88 at expiry vs benchmark 53463.88","scored_at":"2026-09-01T21:35:10+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/fed-holds-rates-july-cpi-payrolls-negative"},{"id":"2548ee5c-ee63-45f4-86aa-da7b6b044b0d","article_slug":"fed-holds-rates-july-cpi-payrolls-negative","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bullish","thesis":"50%, up from flat to inverted a year ago, typically a market signal that a growth slowdown, and eventual cuts, are getting priced in ahead of the data","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-25T09:44:16+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-01T09:44:16+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":52766.88,"outcome_note":"^DJI 52766.88 at expiry vs benchmark 53463.88","scored_at":"2026-09-01T21:35:09+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/fed-holds-rates-july-cpi-payrolls-negative"},{"id":"4bd866f2-9c20-4a09-b07c-69df2982b2b2","article_slug":"sector-rotation-defensive-stocks-rally-tech-slides","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"05, the weakest S&amp;P sector, pulling QQQ down 1","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-25T09:29:15+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-01T09:29:15+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":52766.88,"outcome_note":"^DJI 52766.88 at expiry vs benchmark 53463.88","scored_at":"2026-09-01T21:35:08+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/sector-rotation-defensive-stocks-rally-tech-slides"},{"id":"c9a9a1ea-fb3d-4260-9baa-f30180f0922d","article_slug":"gold-positioning-confirms-rally-oil-prices","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Compare that to gold's fourth straight week of managed-money buying, which is healthy but does mean speculative money has already shown up in size","benchmark_price":4715.9,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-08-25T09:21:02+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-15T09:21:02+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"Invalid extraction: not a forward-looking falsifiable call","scored_at":"2026-08-25T21:38:37+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-positioning-confirms-rally-oil-prices"},{"id":"9a3c2b36-4dff-4d31-ba72-fa2180007c32","article_slug":"gold-positioning-confirms-rally-oil-prices","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"But look at the positioning and a very different picture emerges: COMEX net managed-money longs sit at 23,625 contracts, down 21 from the prior week's 23,646","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-25T09:21:02+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-01T09:21:02+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":52766.88,"outcome_note":"^DJI 52766.88 at expiry vs benchmark 53463.88","scored_at":"2026-09-01T21:35:04+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-positioning-confirms-rally-oil-prices"},{"id":"af85c8a2-e391-4269-989d-6df4fedbf836","article_slug":"gold-positioning-confirms-rally-oil-prices","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Related Reading our gold coverage Gold Rally Builds Into Jackson Hole as Longs Hit 141,648 Core PCE-CPI Gap Widens as Fed's RRP Buffer Empties Gold Extends to $4,694 as Oil Diverges Ahead of Jackson H","benchmark_price":4647.8,"target_price":4.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-25T09:21:02+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-01T09:21:02+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":4375.7,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4375.7 at expiry vs benchmark 4647.8 target 4.0","scored_at":"2026-09-01T21:35:07+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-positioning-confirms-rally-oil-prices"},{"id":"ad0f042e-c4ef-481e-aa4d-80d6a1c3cfcb","article_slug":"gold-positioning-confirms-rally-oil-prices","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Compare that to gold's fourth straight week of managed-money buying, which is healthy but does mean speculative money has already shown up in size","benchmark_price":4647.8,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-25T09:21:02+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-01T09:21:02+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4375.7,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4375.7 at expiry vs benchmark 4647.8","scored_at":"2026-09-01T21:35:06+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-positioning-confirms-rally-oil-prices"},{"id":"30cba0e4-0422-4a87-93a7-5def21d37f3f","article_slug":"gold-positioning-confirms-rally-oil-prices","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Silver","symbol":"SI=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Silver is telling a different story entirely, and crude is pricing a geopolitical risk that has not yet shown up in a single barrel of lost supply","benchmark_price":68.08,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-25T09:21:02+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-01T09:21:02+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":64.66,"outcome_note":"SI=F 64.66 at expiry vs benchmark 68.08","scored_at":"2026-09-01T21:35:05+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-positioning-confirms-rally-oil-prices"},{"id":"0c3e348f-f3e2-4374-96bc-9c9ada30df88","article_slug":"gold-positioning-confirms-rally-oil-prices","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"9% on the month, but CFTC positioning barely moved, down 640 contracts to 79,748","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-25T09:21:02+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-24T09:21:02+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":51349.98,"outcome_note":"^DJI 51349.98 at expiry vs benchmark 53463.88; bearish needs outcome < benchmark -> hit","scored_at":"2026-09-24T21:32:07+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-positioning-confirms-rally-oil-prices"},{"id":"b476e32c-7ae0-4680-8c7e-54bda5a40512","article_slug":"gold-positioning-confirms-rally-oil-prices","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"A hawkish surprise from the Fed or a sudden dollar bounce back above 119 would remove the macro tailwind quickly, and gold's month-long sprint from $4,033 to $4,694 has been fast enough that a disappointing data print could trigger meaningful profit-taking even without a change in the underlying thesis","benchmark_price":4715.9,"target_price":4033.0,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-25T09:21:02+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-24T09:21:02+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"Invalid extraction: not a forward-looking falsifiable call","scored_at":"2026-08-25T21:38:37+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-positioning-confirms-rally-oil-prices"},{"id":"1b950fb2-d26d-41a0-9ed6-d7dc1678c5b9","article_slug":"gold-positioning-confirms-rally-oil-prices","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"9% move over ten sessions will not headline anyone's macro note on its own, but for a metal priced in dollars, a consistent drift lower removes one of the two or three variables that has periodically capped gold's rallies over the past eighteen months","benchmark_price":4715.9,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-25T09:21:02+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-24T09:21:02+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"Invalid extraction: not a forward-looking falsifiable call","scored_at":"2026-08-25T21:38:37+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-positioning-confirms-rally-oil-prices"},{"id":"7d319818-6d1c-4115-a2e9-f8bd10da3f05","article_slug":"gold-silver-momentum-confirmed-oil-prices-hormuz-risk","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"CFTC data for the week ended August 18 shows managed-money net longs in COMEX gold at 222,189 contracts, up 4,249 from the prior week","benchmark_price":4647.8,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-25T09:12:34+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-01T09:12:34+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4375.7,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4375.7 at expiry vs benchmark 4647.8","scored_at":"2026-09-01T21:35:03+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-silver-momentum-confirmed-oil-prices-hormuz-risk"},{"id":"b3b98a9b-bf27-4ca6-a9c2-1727fc86750e","article_slug":"gold-silver-momentum-confirmed-oil-prices-hormuz-risk","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"CFTC data for the week ended August 18 shows managed-money net longs in COMEX gold at 222,189 contracts, up 4,249 from the prior week","benchmark_price":4715.9,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-08-25T09:12:34+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-15T09:12:34+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"Invalid extraction: not a forward-looking falsifiable call","scored_at":"2026-08-25T21:38:37+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-silver-momentum-confirmed-oil-prices-hormuz-risk"},{"id":"6d111547-be46-4b84-8128-242d9e7ce08a","article_slug":"gold-silver-momentum-confirmed-oil-prices-hormuz-risk","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Speculative positioning barely budged, down 21 contracts to 23,625","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-25T09:12:34+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-01T09:12:34+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":52766.88,"outcome_note":"^DJI 52766.88 at expiry vs benchmark 53463.88","scored_at":"2026-09-01T21:35:04+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-silver-momentum-confirmed-oil-prices-hormuz-risk"},{"id":"c0186d8b-e549-4cda-91a1-3c57c750512c","article_slug":"gold-silver-momentum-confirmed-oil-prices-hormuz-risk","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"58, down almost 10% over three months on soft demand, yet CFTC data shows a 22,894-contract jump in net managed-money longs to 122,090, the sharpest positioning shift of the four commodities I track","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-25T09:12:34+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-24T09:12:34+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":51349.98,"outcome_note":"^DJI 51349.98 at expiry vs benchmark 53463.88; bearish needs outcome < benchmark -> hit","scored_at":"2026-09-24T21:32:07+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-silver-momentum-confirmed-oil-prices-hormuz-risk"},{"id":"a2559c11-95ed-4a30-ac28-a96feaadd935","article_slug":"july-fomc-recap-9-3-hold","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"What makes the print harder to read cleanly is the unemployment rate, which actually ticked down to 4","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-25T09:12:18+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-01T09:12:18+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":52766.88,"outcome_note":"^DJI 52766.88 at expiry vs benchmark 53463.88","scored_at":"2026-09-01T21:35:01+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/july-fomc-recap-9-3-hold"},{"id":"2b572a29-5ad0-4894-b132-d984de6a42ac","article_slug":"july-fomc-recap-9-3-hold","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"83%, which suggests the metal is not yet riding the same liquidity-driven bid as gold; that divergence is a call for the commodities desk to run down, not something macro data alone explains","benchmark_price":4647.8,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-25T09:12:18+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-01T09:12:18+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":4375.7,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4375.7 at expiry vs benchmark 4647.8","scored_at":"2026-09-01T21:34:59+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/july-fomc-recap-9-3-hold"},{"id":"006a4d5d-68a6-42f1-9eaf-8cb2e3a5b65d","article_slug":"july-fomc-recap-9-3-hold","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"For more on the Federal Reserve, see Gold Rally Jackson Hole Longs 141648","benchmark_price":4647.8,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-25T09:12:18+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-01T09:12:18+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4375.7,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4375.7 at expiry vs benchmark 4647.8","scored_at":"2026-09-01T21:35:02+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/july-fomc-recap-9-3-hold"},{"id":"bc222b5b-92ab-4c74-943f-05c72b3ec33c","article_slug":"july-fomc-recap-9-3-hold","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Silver","symbol":"SI=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Silver moved the other way, down 0","benchmark_price":68.08,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-25T09:12:18+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-01T09:12:18+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":64.66,"outcome_note":"SI=F 64.66 at expiry vs benchmark 68.08","scored_at":"2026-09-01T21:35:00+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/july-fomc-recap-9-3-hold"},{"id":"cf348fb7-b435-4d1f-b292-a1d4af7b1e0d","article_slug":"july-fomc-recap-9-3-hold","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 in July, the first monthly decline this cycle, down from gains of 20,000 in June, 63,000 in May, and 148,000 in April","benchmark_price":53463.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-25T09:12:18+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-24T09:12:18+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":51349.98,"outcome_note":"^DJI 51349.98 at expiry vs benchmark 53463.88; bearish needs outcome < benchmark -> hit","scored_at":"2026-09-24T21:32:07+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/july-fomc-recap-9-3-hold"},{"id":"496bb371-d16a-4154-b6cd-7a69304975a3","article_slug":"gold-rally-jackson-hole-longs-141648","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The World Gold Council's Q2 2026 Gold Demand Trends report showed central banks bought 289 tonnes in the quarter, the strongest second quarter on record and up 62 tonnes from a year earlier","benchmark_price":4715.9,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":90,"made_at":"2026-08-24T15:32:59+00:00","due_at":"2026-11-22T15:32:59+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"Invalid extraction: not a forward-looking falsifiable call","scored_at":"2026-08-25T21:38:37+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-rally-jackson-hole-longs-141648"},{"id":"089c975e-b1f2-4e20-a872-3757f8899d7d","article_slug":"gold-rally-jackson-hole-longs-141648","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Managed money added to gold longs for a fourth straight week through August 18, per the CFTC's Disaggregated Commitments of Traders report: 154,595 long contracts against 12,947 short, a net of 141,648, up from 137,662 the week before","benchmark_price":4715.9,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-08-24T15:32:59+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-14T15:32:59+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"Invalid extraction: not a forward-looking falsifiable call","scored_at":"2026-08-25T21:38:37+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-rally-jackson-hole-longs-141648"},{"id":"52dee1a5-7758-4adb-9de9-7b08f933d34e","article_slug":"bitcoin-ether-etfs-draw-2-6b","analyst":"Priya Kapoor","sector":"crypto","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Bitcoin's correlation with risk assets tends to strengthen exactly when liquidity conditions are the dominant driver of price action across markets, and that is what the cross-asset tape shows this week: equities, crypto ETF flows, and stablecoin supply are all drifting in the same direction at the same time","benchmark_price":78590.17,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-08-24T15:12:21+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-14T15:12:21+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"Invalid extraction: not a forward-looking falsifiable call","scored_at":"2026-08-25T21:38:37+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bitcoin-ether-etfs-draw-2-6b"},{"id":"a8f18e63-94bd-4ff8-9b4d-0a96ea137de9","article_slug":"bitcoin-ether-etfs-draw-2-6b","analyst":"Priya Kapoor","sector":"crypto","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Spot bitcoin trades near $77,103, and ether sits around $2,446, both down modestly on the day (0","benchmark_price":78590.17,"target_price":77103.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-24T15:12:21+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-31T15:12:21+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"Invalid extraction: not a forward-looking falsifiable call","scored_at":"2026-08-25T21:38:37+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bitcoin-ether-etfs-draw-2-6b"},{"id":"78795f15-1904-4ab8-b59e-1f48dcf7ff1b","article_slug":"equities-breadth-widens-loaded-catalyst-week","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Gold and silver's moves the same day (GLD up 1","benchmark_price":4715.9,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-24T14:41:43+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-31T14:41:43+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"Invalid extraction: not a forward-looking falsifiable call","scored_at":"2026-08-25T21:38:37+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/equities-breadth-widens-loaded-catalyst-week"},{"id":"5f2ae8d1-10bf-4b7b-a24e-c042592e9e50","article_slug":"market-breadth-broadens-loaded-catalyst-week","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Related reading: S&amp;P 500 Sector Rotation and the AI Capex Supercycle, Copper Hits an All-Time High as Gold Tops $4,453 on Monday, Hormuz Ceasefire Lapses: Oil's Fourth Straight Rally","benchmark_price":4715.9,"target_price":4453.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-24T08:51:57+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-31T08:51:57+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"Invalid extraction: not a forward-looking falsifiable call","scored_at":"2026-08-25T21:38:37+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/market-breadth-broadens-loaded-catalyst-week"},{"id":"dbf5738c-9716-44ad-a696-0ddfaf85c5fd","article_slug":"market-breadth-broadens-loaded-catalyst-week","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Gold and silver's moves today, GLD up 1","benchmark_price":4715.9,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-24T08:51:57+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-31T08:51:57+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"Invalid extraction: not a forward-looking falsifiable call","scored_at":"2026-08-25T21:38:37+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/market-breadth-broadens-loaded-catalyst-week"},{"id":"4a9c1f13-6d56-4832-8b30-9c871bd4d040","article_slug":"fed-liquidity-inflation-divergence-rrp-drain-aug-24","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Related reading: The Week Ahead: PCE, Jackson Hole and NVIDIA Test the Rally, Fed Minutes Show 9-3 Split as Treasury Steps In, Bitcoin Tops $75,000 on $3B Squeeze, Treasury Liquidity","benchmark_price":78609.18,"target_price":75000.0,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-08-24T08:43:36+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-14T08:43:36+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"Invalid extraction: not a forward-looking falsifiable call","scored_at":"2026-08-25T21:38:37+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/fed-liquidity-inflation-divergence-rrp-drain-aug-24"},{"id":"85da5041-7536-46aa-9ea6-fc46ff027f1e","article_slug":"bitcoin-touches-70000-treasury-liquidity","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"crypto","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"bullish","thesis":"\\n Related: Bitcoin Etf Flows Surge August 2026 \\n Related: Bitcoin Price Forecast 2026 \\n Related: Crypto Market Outlook August 2026 Bitcoin ETFs Post Second Inflow Day as SEC Advances Rules Bitcoin ...","benchmark_price":72789.02,"target_price":64137.0,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-08-20T09:47:06+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-10T09:47:06+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":77204.99,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 77204.99 at expiry vs benchmark 72789.02 target 64137.0","scored_at":"2026-09-10T21:35:09+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bitcoin-touches-70000-treasury-liquidity"},{"id":"59ba5d38-76d3-447d-b805-0f691894b057","article_slug":"bitcoin-touches-70000-treasury-liquidity","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"crypto","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"bullish","thesis":"For more our Bitcoin coverage , see BTC ETF inflows reached $854 million in August , Bitcoin defied rate-hike fears with strong ETF flows , and Bitcoin holds ETF flows amid on-chain and regulatory sig...","benchmark_price":72789.02,"target_price":854.0,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-20T09:47:06+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-19T09:47:06+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":86827.09,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 86827.09 at expiry; target_price 854.0 is not a valid price target (mis-extracted from '$854 million' ETF-flow figure; benchmark 72789.02). Nonsensical target unscoreable -> void, not charitable hit","scored_at":"2026-09-21T21:36:57+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bitcoin-touches-70000-treasury-liquidity"},{"id":"16db4f00-29cf-4cf8-af16-1158869091e2","article_slug":"bitcoin-etf-treasury-buybacks-sec-rule","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"crypto","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Related reading: Bitcoin ETFs post second inflow day , Bitcoin recovers as spot ETF inflows hit $854M , Bitcoin weekly overview for August 17, 2026...","benchmark_price":72789.02,"target_price":854.0,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-08-20T09:30:28+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-10T09:30:28+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":77204.99,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 77204.99 at expiry vs benchmark 72789.02 target 854.0","scored_at":"2026-09-10T21:35:08+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bitcoin-etf-treasury-buybacks-sec-rule"},{"id":"a5a717dc-b91d-4c53-8a49-4b43e7046bd7","article_slug":"bitcoin-etf-treasury-buybacks-sec-rule","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"crypto","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bullish","thesis":"A failure to hold the $60,000-$62,500 support that capped the summer range would reopen the case for a retest of $55,000-$58,000, a level bearish researchers including 10x Research and Peter Schiff ha...","benchmark_price":52759.21,"target_price":60000.0,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-20T09:30:28+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-19T09:30:28+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":52048.83,"outcome_note":"^DJI 52048.83 at expiry vs target 60000 (benchmark 52759.21): 52048.83 < 60000, explicit-target bullish miss","scored_at":"2026-09-21T21:36:57+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bitcoin-etf-treasury-buybacks-sec-rule"},{"id":"1cefee42-4145-4eb9-820d-93e61aba3e67","article_slug":"gold-tops-4500-treasury-buyback-yields","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"neutral","thesis":"Comex gold futures (GC=F) are consolidating at $4,537","benchmark_price":4575.1,"target_price":4537.0,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-20T09:02:39+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-19T09:02:39+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4381.0,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4381.00 at expiry vs benchmark 4575.10: |4381-4575.1|/4575.1=4.24% > 2% neutral band -> miss","scored_at":"2026-09-21T21:36:57+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-tops-4500-treasury-buyback-yields"},{"id":"fb26797e-8b81-4377-8927-a7a11ba4fccb","article_slug":"gold-tops-4500-treasury-buyback-yields","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"neutral","thesis":"Gold managed-money net longs climbed from 119,795 contracts in the week ending July 28 to 130,766 the following week and 137,662 in the week ending August 11, even while spot chopped sideways in a $4,070 to $4,400 range through late July and early August","benchmark_price":4575.1,"target_price":4070.0,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-08-20T09:02:39+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-10T09:02:39+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4358.5,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4358.5 at expiry vs benchmark 4575.1 target 4070.0","scored_at":"2026-09-10T21:35:06+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-tops-4500-treasury-buyback-yields"},{"id":"3cd86e47-c6fe-4aab-af09-c7b9db9638d8","article_slug":"gold-silver-rally-treasury-bond-buybacks-2026-08-20","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"80 Into FOMC , Gold at $4,390 , Copper Hits an All-Time High as Gold Tops $4,453 o...","benchmark_price":4575.1,"target_price":4390.0,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-20T09:02:27+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-19T09:02:27+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4381.0,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4381.00 at expiry vs target 4390 (benchmark 4575.10): 4381 < 4390, explicit-target bullish miss","scored_at":"2026-09-21T21:36:57+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-silver-rally-treasury-bond-buybacks-2026-08-20"},{"id":"4361587b-b094-48de-b4d2-a2445c122b92","article_slug":"test-slug-123","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Gold is likely to test $4600 by year-end.","benchmark_price":4500.0,"target_price":4600.0,"horizon_days":100,"made_at":"2026-08-20T00:00:00+00:00","due_at":"2026-11-28T00:00:00+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/test-slug-123"},{"id":"9f045516-8241-4ad7-ade0-8156a1b013e4","article_slug":"rupee-slips-9568-us-canada-delay","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"BTC","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"bullish","thesis":"For more on macro trends, see our analysis on BIS UAE A5 Reclassification Defense Energy Export Architecture , Tech Stocks Face Double Headwind: China Exposure and Earnings Season Risk , BTC ETFs Pull...","benchmark_price":72789.01,"target_price":854.0,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-19T09:54:18+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:54:18+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":81143.61,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 81143.61 at expiry vs target 854.0 (benchmark 72789.01)","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:37:13+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/rupee-slips-9568-us-canada-delay"},{"id":"f7b9b502-3ba4-4b83-a88c-0a70506bac3b","article_slug":"oil-driven-inflation-repricing-brent-91-fed-policy","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"ETH","symbol":"ETH-USD","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The US and Canada reached a last-minute agreement to delay 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods, coming together less than two hours before the deadline...","benchmark_price":2321.1,"target_price":20.0,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-19T09:49:18+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:49:18+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":2628.88,"outcome_note":"ETH-USD 2628.88 at expiry vs target 20.0 (benchmark 2321.1)","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/oil-driven-inflation-repricing-brent-91-fed-policy"},{"id":"0c079fa4-44d4-49ad-8611-d714d8c529d0","article_slug":"oil-driven-inflation-repricing-brent-91-fed-policy","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Brent","symbol":"BZ=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"If Brent holds above $90 for weeks rather than days, expect further forecast resets from other banks, a further push-out of Fed cut expectations, and continued pressure on both equities and precious m...","benchmark_price":93.15,"target_price":90.0,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-08-19T09:49:18+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-09T09:49:18+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"Quote failed: Invalid JSON from stocks_client: Expecting property name enclosed in double quotes: line 1 column 2 (char 1)","scored_at":"2026-09-09T21:35:26+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/oil-driven-inflation-repricing-brent-91-fed-policy"},{"id":"35e606f3-e252-438c-a1c3-142535f920eb","article_slug":"oil-driven-inflation-repricing-brent-91-fed-policy","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"oil","symbol":"CL=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"India imports roughly 85% of its crude, so a sustained move above $90 is a direct terms-of-trade hit, not an abstraction, and it is a reminder that oil-importing emerging-market currencies transmit th...","benchmark_price":86.21,"target_price":90.0,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-19T09:49:18+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:49:18+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":95.47,"outcome_note":"CL=F 95.47 at expiry vs target 90.0 (benchmark 86.21)","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/oil-driven-inflation-repricing-brent-91-fed-policy"},{"id":"4422ef11-2a5f-46dd-acc6-4ab3e015d8de","article_slug":"price-gold-4389-silver-6280-fomc","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The dollar and real yields extend their move, and I'd expect gold to test $4,300 to $4,350 support and silver to test the high $50s before central bank and physical demand can reassert itself...","benchmark_price":4575.1,"target_price":4300.0,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-19T09:32:27+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:32:27+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":4415.9,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4415.9 at expiry vs target 4300.0 (benchmark 4575.1)","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/price-gold-4389-silver-6280-fomc"},{"id":"ba4d4cbd-7364-478c-9834-be6a9e484571","article_slug":"price-gold-4389-silver-6280-fomc","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"The data through August 11 says we're in the second case: CFTC net longs are rising, not falling, and the World Gold Council's Q2 report was published well after this pullback started, meaning central","benchmark_price":4580.7,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-19T09:32:27+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-26T09:32:27+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4647.8,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4647.8 at expiry vs benchmark 4580.7","scored_at":"2026-08-26T21:33:36+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/price-gold-4389-silver-6280-fomc"},{"id":"e1cbe680-87e8-42de-b39e-26504d0d602a","article_slug":"price-gold-4389-silver-6280-fomc","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Related Reading Gold at $4,453, Copper at ATH: Reading the August 17 Commodities Tape Copper Hits an All-Time High as Gold Tops $4,453 on Monday Fed Governor Cook Signals Rate Hike Readiness: What It ...","benchmark_price":4575.1,"target_price":4453.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-19T09:32:27+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-26T09:32:27+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":4647.8,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4647.8 at expiry vs benchmark 4575.1 target 4453.0","scored_at":"2026-08-26T21:33:37+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/price-gold-4389-silver-6280-fomc"},{"id":"3d5c32ac-2f9d-484a-812b-55d1363a9de3","article_slug":"price-gold-4389-silver-6280-fomc","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Silver","symbol":"SI=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"30 on Comex today and silver dropped 1","benchmark_price":67.13,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-19T09:32:27+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-26T09:32:27+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":68.08,"outcome_note":"SI=F 68.08 at expiry vs benchmark 67.13","scored_at":"2026-08-26T21:33:35+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/price-gold-4389-silver-6280-fomc"},{"id":"79b212f3-42bd-49c1-bda2-65a3b0b1f116","article_slug":"price-gold-4389-silver-6280-fomc","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The World Gold Council's Q2 2026 Gold Demand Trends report puts central bank purchases at roughly 289 tonnes, the strongest second quarter on record and 62 tonnes higher than the same period a year ag","benchmark_price":4580.7,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":90,"made_at":"2026-08-19T09:32:27+00:00","due_at":"2026-11-17T09:32:27+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/price-gold-4389-silver-6280-fomc"},{"id":"3052f610-1a8d-4e14-a23c-224eef0a525e","article_slug":"gulf-states-hormuz-bypass-infrastructure","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Wells Fargo already cut its 2026 gold target in July, to $4,900-5,100 from $5,300-5,500, on the same \"higher for longer\" repricing...","benchmark_price":4575.1,"target_price":4900.0,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-19T09:32:06+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:32:06+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4415.9,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4415.9 at expiry vs target 4900.0 (benchmark 4575.1)","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gulf-states-hormuz-bypass-infrastructure"},{"id":"11a85a6e-b083-4dba-86b5-c27f9315fb33","article_slug":"gulf-states-hormuz-bypass-infrastructure","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"WTI","symbol":"CL=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Related reading: Hormuz Deal Nears: What It Means for Oil and Inflation ; WTI-Brent Spread Hits $6...","benchmark_price":86.21,"target_price":6.0,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-19T09:32:06+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:32:06+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":95.47,"outcome_note":"CL=F 95.47 at expiry vs target 6.0 (benchmark 86.21)","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gulf-states-hormuz-bypass-infrastructure"},{"id":"07610d92-3633-4088-b288-db0efd152d70","article_slug":"gulf-states-hormuz-bypass-infrastructure","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bullish","thesis":"A retest of $100 would require either a materially worse escalation (an actual closure event, not just a slowdown) or a policy surprise like the \"declare the strait U...","benchmark_price":52759.21,"target_price":100.0,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-19T09:32:06+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-18T09:32:06+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":51682.64,"outcome_note":"^DJI 51682.64 at expiry vs target 100.0 (benchmark 52759.21)","scored_at":"2026-09-18T21:36:21+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gulf-states-hormuz-bypass-infrastructure"},{"id":"432b73a2-aac1-4c68-a525-7b75b41136a5","article_slug":"gulf-states-hormuz-bypass-infrastructure","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007 this week, and higher oil is itself inflationary, which pushes out the timeline for Fed rate cuts and supports both the dollar and real yiel","benchmark_price":4580.7,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-08-19T09:32:06+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-09T09:32:06+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"Quote failed: Invalid JSON from stocks_client: Expecting property name enclosed in double quotes: line 1 column 2 (char 1)","scored_at":"2026-09-09T21:35:25+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gulf-states-hormuz-bypass-infrastructure"},{"id":"7a9ee968-a0c8-49db-b4c7-9e2a4785a112","article_slug":"chariot-resources-surges-39-china-lithium","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"commodities","asset":"Dow","symbol":"^DJI","direction":"bullish","thesis":"C&amp;D paid a refundable US$100,000 exclusivity fee and would add a US$500,000 interest-free prepayment if talks reach a definitive agreement inside a 90-day window...","benchmark_price":52759.21,"target_price":100000.0,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-19T09:15:02+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-26T09:15:02+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":53463.88,"outcome_note":"^DJI 53463.88 at expiry vs benchmark 52759.21 target 100000.0","scored_at":"2026-08-26T21:33:34+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/chariot-resources-surges-39-china-lithium"},{"id":"cf6df72f-66b5-4917-a2bc-0bf213a1deb5","article_slug":"bitcoin-stalls-63700-etf-flows","analyst":"Priya Kapoor","sector":"crypto","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"neutral","thesis":"The data currently supports a neutral read on Bitcoin over the next several days, with the balance of risk tilting toward the calendar: Jackson Hole and the September jobs report are the events that will most likely decide which of these two cases the market starts pricing.","benchmark_price":63408.7,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-13T17:34:49+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-20T17:34:49+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":72789.02,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 72789.02 at expiry vs benchmark 63408.7","scored_at":"2026-08-20T21:34:40+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bitcoin-stalls-63700-etf-flows"},{"id":"165acc77-4b0d-45ad-b321-488558a25c2f","article_slug":"gold-cftc-positioning-cpi","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"USO","symbol":"USO","direction":"neutral","thesis":"USO sits at $125.92, up 6.73% on the day, well off its 52-week high of $154.08, and the setup is binary enough that I am calling it neutral rather than putting a directional number on it.","benchmark_price":127.61,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-11T09:56:54+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-18T09:56:54+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":130.66,"outcome_note":"USO 130.66 vs benchmark 127.61 (neutral)","scored_at":"2026-08-18T21:38:45+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-cftc-positioning-cpi"},{"id":"b9239834-f968-4ed5-b620-4694c9dbf484","article_slug":"btc-eth-etf-inflows-turn-positive","analyst":"Priya Kapoor","sector":"crypto","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"bullish","thesis":"That gap between what institutional allocators are doing and what retail sentiment gauges are saying is the most useful signal in the market right now, and it points toward a slower, grinding recovery rather than a sharp one.","benchmark_price":64051.47,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":37,"made_at":"2026-08-10T10:24:15+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-16T10:24:15+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":75898.77,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 75898.77 at expiry vs benchmark 64051.47; bullish no target, outcome > benchmark => hit","scored_at":"2026-09-16T21:49:23+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/btc-eth-etf-inflows-turn-positive"},{"id":"9a715b13-2ba3-4f12-82c7-e344473619ec","article_slug":"spy-qqq-market-internals-sector-rally","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"S&P 500","symbol":"SPY","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Until then, breadth expansion and compressed volatility argue for the path of least resistance staying up, even as the hedging data suggests some desks are not fully convinced.","benchmark_price":773.03,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":25,"made_at":"2026-08-10T09:26:36+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-04T09:26:36+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":770.19,"outcome_note":"SPY 770.19 at expiry vs benchmark 773.03","scored_at":"2026-09-04T21:34:39+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/spy-qqq-market-internals-sector-rally"},{"id":"00c93525-4b94-499d-96c0-f3c9fdb13b40","article_slug":"spy-qqq-market-internals-sector-rally","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"S&P 500","symbol":"^GSPC","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Until then, breadth expansion and compressed volatility argue for the path of least resistance staying up, even as the hedging data suggests some desks are not fully convinced.","benchmark_price":7728.2,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-08-10T09:26:36+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-31T09:26:36+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":7686.14,"outcome_note":"^GSPC 7686.14 at expiry vs benchmark 7728.20 (direction bullish)","scored_at":"2026-08-31T21:34:30+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/spy-qqq-market-internals-sector-rally"},{"id":"03c46242-6dbb-4ed6-ac92-41ca63943aa0","article_slug":"gold-4300-breakout-cftc-positioning-miner","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"My read into the print: the setup favors continuation over reversal, but the margin for error has narrowed since Friday.","benchmark_price":4448.6,"target_price":4390.0,"horizon_days":2,"made_at":"2026-08-10T09:20:04+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-12T09:20:04+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":4469.0,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4469.00 at expiry vs target 4390.0 (benchmark 4448.60)","scored_at":"2026-08-12T21:34:03+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-4300-breakout-cftc-positioning-miner"},{"id":"0240a5af-512c-4f8b-9e21-0084a691f5a8","article_slug":"gold-4300-breakout-cftc-positioning-miner","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"I'd stay constructive on both metals into the print while acknowledging that a genuinely hot CPI reading is the one data point capable of unwinding a good chunk of last week's move inside a single session.","benchmark_price":4427.8,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-10T09:20:04+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-17T09:20:04+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":4473.1,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4473.10 at expiry vs benchmark 4427.80 — bullish direction: outcome > benchmark","scored_at":"2026-08-17T21:33:33+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-4300-breakout-cftc-positioning-miner"},{"id":"98a21916-bb38-4060-9aae-f87e574d85a1","article_slug":"gold-4300-breakout-cftc-positioning-miner","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Silver","symbol":"SI=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"If you're choosing between the two metals for the next leg of this move, the positioning math favors silver having more room to run.","benchmark_price":65.88,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":2,"made_at":"2026-08-10T09:20:04+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-12T09:20:04+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":65.53,"outcome_note":"SI=F 65.53 at expiry vs benchmark 65.88","scored_at":"2026-08-12T21:34:01+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-4300-breakout-cftc-positioning-miner"},{"id":"4bb46f25-4c28-4bb2-83f0-c36a1097315a","article_slug":"gold-4300-breakout-cftc-positioning-miner","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"WTI Crude","symbol":"CL=F","direction":"neutral","thesis":"I'm calling oil neutral here, not bullish, because the risk/reward on a directional bet is unusually poor heading into Wednesday's CPI print and next week's EIA data.","benchmark_price":82.3,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":2,"made_at":"2026-08-10T09:20:04+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-12T09:20:04+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":82.58,"outcome_note":"CL=F 82.58 at expiry vs benchmark 82.30","scored_at":"2026-08-12T21:34:04+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-4300-breakout-cftc-positioning-miner"},{"id":"1ffe21f0-2bc0-4334-a56f-455d442a39c2","article_slug":"gold-4300-breakout-cftc-positioning-miner","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Silver","symbol":"SI=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"I'd stay constructive on both metals into the print while acknowledging that a genuinely hot CPI reading is the one data point capable of unwinding a good chunk of last week's move inside a single session.","benchmark_price":64.86,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-10T09:20:04+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-17T09:20:04+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":65.91,"outcome_note":"SI=F 65.91 at expiry vs benchmark 64.86 — bullish direction: outcome > benchmark","scored_at":"2026-08-17T21:33:33+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-4300-breakout-cftc-positioning-miner"},{"id":"0c82114d-e147-44a9-a53f-81b9c1af4b24","article_slug":"gold-4300-breakout-cftc-positioning-miner","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"WTI Crude","symbol":"CL=F","direction":"neutral","thesis":"I'm calling oil neutral here, not bullish, because the risk/reward on a directional bet is unusually poor heading into Wednesday's CPI print and next week's EIA data.","benchmark_price":83.23,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-10T09:20:04+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-17T09:20:04+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":84.95,"outcome_note":"CL=F 84.95 at expiry vs benchmark 83.23 — neutral band: |diff|/benchmark = 0.0207 = 2.07% > 2% — outside neutral band","scored_at":"2026-08-17T21:33:33+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-4300-breakout-cftc-positioning-miner"},{"id":"fc7fceac-91a0-4dbc-870b-a5713afb9705","article_slug":"fed-policy-july-interest-rates-inflation","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"S&P 500","symbol":"SPY","direction":"neutral","thesis":"SPY looks neutral into the August 12 CPI print, while QQQ's rate sensitivity gives it a modest bullish tilt as September hike odds recede.","benchmark_price":773.03,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":2,"made_at":"2026-08-10T09:11:05+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-12T09:11:05+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":772.49,"outcome_note":"SPY 772.49 at expiry vs benchmark 773.03","scored_at":"2026-08-12T21:33:58+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/fed-policy-july-interest-rates-inflation"},{"id":"e82d6107-9814-4484-a696-39194eb7cb91","article_slug":"fed-policy-july-interest-rates-inflation","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"SPY","symbol":"SPY","direction":"neutral","thesis":"SPY looks neutral into the August 12 CPI print, while QQQ's rate sensitivity gives it a modest bullish tilt as September hike odds recede.","benchmark_price":770.56,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-10T09:11:05+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-17T09:11:05+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":772.67,"outcome_note":"SPY 772.67 at expiry vs benchmark 770.56 — neutral band: |diff|/benchmark = 0.0027 = 0.27% ≤ 2%","scored_at":"2026-08-17T21:33:33+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/fed-policy-july-interest-rates-inflation"},{"id":"a096eef9-4b9a-4c01-bf32-e7ea5031f172","article_slug":"fed-policy-july-interest-rates-inflation","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"QQQ","symbol":"QQQ","direction":"bullish","thesis":"SPY looks neutral into the August 12 CPI print, while QQQ's rate sensitivity gives it a modest bullish tilt as September hike odds recede.","benchmark_price":718.45,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-10T09:11:05+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-09T09:11:05+00:00","status":"void","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":"Quote failed: Invalid JSON from stocks_client: Expecting property name enclosed in double quotes: line 1 column 2 (char 1)","scored_at":"2026-09-09T21:35:24+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/fed-policy-july-interest-rates-inflation"},{"id":"8302c9e1-f772-4430-99b8-bd69a3e905ca","article_slug":"fed-policy-july-interest-rates-inflation","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Nasdaq-100","symbol":"QQQ","direction":"bullish","thesis":"SPY looks neutral into the August 12 CPI print, while QQQ's rate sensitivity gives it a modest bullish tilt as September hike odds recede.","benchmark_price":720.87,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":37,"made_at":"2026-08-10T09:11:05+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-16T09:11:05+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":704.72,"outcome_note":"QQQ 704.72 at expiry vs benchmark 720.87; bullish no target, outcome < benchmark => miss","scored_at":"2026-09-16T21:49:23+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/fed-policy-july-interest-rates-inflation"},{"id":"5984d41b-7c1d-42a6-b65d-ccf3e9315752","article_slug":"oil-under-pressure-gold-at-risk-saudi-surge-esg-headwinds","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"WTI Crude","symbol":"CL=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"The base case is continued supply pressure against softer-than-expected demand, with WTI testing $70-72 before the end of August.","benchmark_price":77.08,"target_price":71.0,"horizon_days":25,"made_at":"2026-08-06T10:11:01+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-31T10:11:01+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":86.31,"outcome_note":"CL=F 86.31 at expiry vs target 71.00 (benchmark 77.08)","scored_at":"2026-08-31T21:34:31+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/oil-under-pressure-gold-at-risk-saudi-surge-esg-headwinds"},{"id":"6d82e68f-755e-4f43-82ae-8f4245e39b89","article_slug":"oil-under-pressure-gold-at-risk-saudi-surge-esg-headwinds","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"WTI Crude","symbol":"CL=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Between here and there, the path of least resistance is down.","benchmark_price":78.23,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-08-06T10:11:01+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-27T10:11:01+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":83.54,"outcome_note":"CL=F 83.54 at expiry vs benchmark 78.23 (direction bearish)","scored_at":"2026-08-27T21:35:22+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/oil-under-pressure-gold-at-risk-saudi-surge-esg-headwinds"},{"id":"2a84cf52-d03c-4379-a2ad-bfe864a8f2b7","article_slug":"oil-pullback-hormuz-surge-wti","analyst":"Research Team","sector":"commodities","asset":"WTI Crude","symbol":"CL=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"The base case for the next few weeks is continued mean-reversion toward the mid-to-upper $70s, barring any new incident at the Strait.","benchmark_price":80.06,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-08-03T09:30:36+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-24T09:30:36+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":84.98,"outcome_note":"CL=F 84.98 at expiry vs benchmark 80.06","scored_at":"2026-08-24T21:34:02+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/oil-pullback-hormuz-surge-wti"},{"id":"062c1778-b3cd-401a-ba61-eec74e33f290","article_slug":"gold-iran-washout-oil-copper-record-2026-08-03","analyst":"Research Team","sector":"macro","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"neutral","thesis":"For Q3, the base case is continued dollar strength and commodity chop. Gold likely ranges between $3,700 and $4,350","benchmark_price":4110.9,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":57,"made_at":"2026-08-03T09:16:41+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-29T09:16:41+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-iran-washout-oil-copper-record-2026-08-03"},{"id":"07067436-ea06-4caf-856f-1df93fbee8c6","article_slug":"gold-iran-washout-oil-copper-record-2026-08-03","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"neutral","thesis":"For Q3, the base case is continued dollar strength and commodity chop. Gold likely ranges between $3,700 and $4,350.","benchmark_price":4134.2,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":90,"made_at":"2026-08-03T09:16:41+00:00","due_at":"2026-11-01T09:16:41+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-iran-washout-oil-copper-record-2026-08-03"},{"id":"7a53ce49-1b6f-4946-9b4d-4847196a43b7","article_slug":"fed-hold-three-hawks-dissent-macro-regime","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Gold (GLD) carries a high-confidence bullish signal: real yields are negative (Fed Funds effective 3.625% vs. PCE 3.7%), DXY has slipped below 100, and Middle East geopolitical risk provides an additional floor.","benchmark_price":4110.9,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":90,"made_at":"2026-08-03T09:16:09+00:00","due_at":"2026-11-01T09:16:09+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/fed-hold-three-hawks-dissent-macro-regime"},{"id":"7392cfa8-f2b1-465f-9d8d-c5677850b550","article_slug":"fed-hold-three-hawks-dissent-macro-regime","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Silver","symbol":"SLV","direction":"bullish","thesis":"SLV, the silver ETF, follows gold directionally with a medium-confidence bullish read, with the caveat that silver's industrial demand component faces a headwind from the GDP deceleration documented above.","benchmark_price":53.84,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-03T09:16:09+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-02T09:16:09+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":59.07,"outcome_note":"SLV 59.07 at expiry vs benchmark 53.84 (no target)","scored_at":"2026-09-02T21:32:57+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/fed-hold-three-hawks-dissent-macro-regime"},{"id":"6873dadb-ed4c-4668-b5ab-5dd6adfb44be","article_slug":"fed-hold-three-hawks-dissent-macro-regime","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Ethereum","symbol":"ETH-USD","direction":"neutral","thesis":"Bitcoin and Ether both carry low-confidence neutral signals.","benchmark_price":1871.85,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-03T09:16:09+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-10T09:16:09+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":1872.63,"outcome_note":"ETH-USD 1872.63 at expiry vs benchmark 1871.85 (neutral)","scored_at":"2026-08-10T21:49:45+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/fed-hold-three-hawks-dissent-macro-regime"},{"id":"b5da3354-a419-4884-acb7-d05329869fef","article_slug":"fed-hold-three-hawks-dissent-macro-regime","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"neutral","thesis":"Bitcoin and Ether both carry low-confidence neutral signals.","benchmark_price":64180.25,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-03T09:16:09+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-10T09:16:09+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":63935.32,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 63935.32 at expiry vs benchmark 64180.25 (neutral)","scored_at":"2026-08-10T21:49:45+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/fed-hold-three-hawks-dissent-macro-regime"},{"id":"314e5a24-31c5-4af5-8e6a-e4c28ec8597f","article_slug":"fed-hold-three-hawks-dissent-macro-regime","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"S&P 500","symbol":"SPY","direction":"bearish","thesis":"SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, carries a medium-confidence bearish signal over the short term.","benchmark_price":771.33,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-03T09:16:09+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-10T09:16:09+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":773.03,"outcome_note":"SPY 773.03 at expiry vs benchmark 771.33 (bearish)","scored_at":"2026-08-10T21:49:45+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/fed-hold-three-hawks-dissent-macro-regime"},{"id":"695b0409-5ab8-46c0-995f-24a2ea6a5f1b","article_slug":"fed-hold-three-hawks-dissent-macro-regime","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GLD","direction":"bullish","thesis":"GLD, the gold ETF, carries a high-confidence bullish signal over the medium term.","benchmark_price":374.16,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-08-03T09:16:09+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-02T09:16:09+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":402.78,"outcome_note":"GLD 402.78 at expiry vs benchmark 374.16 (no target)","scored_at":"2026-09-02T21:32:56+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/fed-hold-three-hawks-dissent-macro-regime"},{"id":"34ebcf93-d241-4b5c-9b56-a5a1a8238dec","article_slug":"sector-rotation-q2-earnings-fed-risk","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"Nasdaq-100","symbol":"^NDX","direction":"neutral","thesis":"QQQ is neutral on a short-term basis: the AI capex narrative remains intact, but at 11.8% below its 52-week high and with rotation actively favoring cyclicals over Tech, the near-term path is sideways until the macro data clarifies.","benchmark_price":28776.8,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-03T09:03:30+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-10T09:03:30+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":29621.81,"outcome_note":"^NDX 29621.81 at expiry vs benchmark 28776.8 (neutral)","scored_at":"2026-08-10T21:49:45+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/sector-rotation-q2-earnings-fed-risk"},{"id":"d83a9265-aa18-4a73-867c-21787b391539","article_slug":"sector-rotation-q2-earnings-fed-risk","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"S&P 500","symbol":"^GSPC","direction":"bullish","thesis":"SPY carries a medium-confidence bullish signal on a medium-term horizon, per the research brief's August 3 assessment. The earnings beat track record and Iran de-escalation combine as supporting factors, with the 20x forward P/E and Fed hike optionality as caps.","benchmark_price":7600.5,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":90,"made_at":"2026-08-03T09:03:30+00:00","due_at":"2026-11-01T09:03:30+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/sector-rotation-q2-earnings-fed-risk"},{"id":"c282857f-bbc9-43f3-91da-7291de614a4a","article_slug":"sector-rotation-q2-earnings-fed-risk","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"GLD carries a medium-confidence bullish signal on a medium-term horizon, with Fed credibility questions following the Warsh press conference and residual Iran risk premium cited as supporting factors.","benchmark_price":4110.9,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":90,"made_at":"2026-08-03T09:03:30+00:00","due_at":"2026-11-01T09:03:30+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/sector-rotation-q2-earnings-fed-risk"},{"id":"2b4fad2b-e6a9-49a1-9206-2b0ef9bf5236","article_slug":"sector-rotation-q2-earnings-fed-risk","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"Silver","symbol":"SI=F","direction":"neutral","thesis":"SLV is neutral with low confidence on a short-term basis, given the conflict between constructive industrial metals demand and Monday's XLB weakness.","benchmark_price":58.4,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-08-03T09:03:30+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-10T09:03:30+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":65.88,"outcome_note":"SI=F 65.88 at expiry vs benchmark 58.4 (neutral)","scored_at":"2026-08-10T21:49:45+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/sector-rotation-q2-earnings-fed-risk"},{"id":"8f13d077-4b6d-48a2-b497-8034ed66b981","article_slug":"geopolitical-commodities-supply-disruption-july-28-2026","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"WTI Crude","symbol":"CL=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"The base case for crude is a fragile informal truce that holds long enough to let oil drift toward the $78-80 range.","benchmark_price":79.13,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-07-28T09:07:09+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-18T09:07:09+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":84.42,"outcome_note":"CL=F 84.42 vs benchmark 79.13 (bearish)","scored_at":"2026-08-18T21:38:44+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/geopolitical-commodities-supply-disruption-july-28-2026"},{"id":"46805249-bdfc-444a-97c7-9c79e9d475d3","article_slug":"offshore-nuclear-saudi-deal-uranium-oil-july-2026","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Global X Uranium ETF","symbol":"URA","direction":"bullish","thesis":"Both point the same direction for uranium.","benchmark_price":38.95,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":90,"made_at":"2026-07-27T09:48:27+00:00","due_at":"2026-10-25T09:48:27+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/offshore-nuclear-saudi-deal-uranium-oil-july-2026"},{"id":"1b04b6aa-2798-407c-9e2a-c873ebedd7d3","article_slug":"gold-4089-central-bank-demand-reserve-asset-hierarchy","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"A realistic base case given current positioning and macro conditions puts the next meaningful test at $4,200-$4,300 over the coming weeks.","benchmark_price":4078.6,"target_price":4200.0,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-07-27T08:58:55+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-17T08:58:55+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":4473.1,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4473.10 at expiry vs target 4200.00 (benchmark 4078.60) — bullish target met","scored_at":"2026-08-17T21:33:33+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/gold-4089-central-bank-demand-reserve-asset-hierarchy"},{"id":"6868d7a8-c4ca-423a-914c-36b83cb2eead","article_slug":"agent-silver-s-4-single-day-surge-the-supply-squeeze-and-technical-setup-to-watch","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Silver","symbol":"SI=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"a sustained hold above $60 puts the $63-$65 zone in play","benchmark_price":60.03,"target_price":63.0,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-07-22T09:07:45+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-12T09:07:45+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":65.53,"outcome_note":"SI=F 65.53 at expiry vs target 63.0 (benchmark 60.03)","scored_at":"2026-08-12T21:33:57+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/agent-silver-s-4-single-day-surge-the-supply-squeeze-and-technical-setup-to-watch"},{"id":"259968a4-03b8-4dab-bdc6-039c1bacad76","article_slug":"sp500-rises-cpi-cools-bank-earnings-beat","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"Nasdaq-100","symbol":"^NDX","direction":"neutral","thesis":"QQQ closed at $719.71 (+1.12%), but the signal is neutral.","benchmark_price":29502.6,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-07-15T09:55:43+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-05T09:55:43+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":29487.79,"outcome_note":"^NDX 29487.79 at expiry vs benchmark 29502.6 (neutral, no target; |change|/benchmark = 0.0502% <= 2% = hit)","scored_at":"2026-08-05T21:33:28+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/sp500-rises-cpi-cools-bank-earnings-beat"},{"id":"5b9bf073-8701-4596-bd82-5c06e83384c0","article_slug":"sp500-rises-cpi-cools-bank-earnings-beat","analyst":"James Nakamura","sector":"equities","asset":"XLF","symbol":"XLF","direction":"bullish","thesis":"XLF (Financials) carries the highest-confidence bullish signal of the session.","benchmark_price":56.56,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-07-15T09:55:43+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-05T09:55:43+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":58.0,"outcome_note":"XLF 58.0 at expiry vs benchmark 56.56 (bullish, no target; outcome > benchmark = hit)","scored_at":"2026-08-05T21:33:28+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/sp500-rises-cpi-cools-bank-earnings-beat"},{"id":"d47ed71f-4a45-4b2c-a64c-2b030d14de70","article_slug":"bitcoin-macro-pivot-june-cpi-reshuffles","analyst":"Priya Kapoor","sector":"crypto","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The GLD signal in the brief carries a 0.65 conviction bullish read, above Bitcoin's 0.55.","benchmark_price":4066.9,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":60,"made_at":"2026-07-15T09:34:26+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-13T09:34:26+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":4340.0,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4340.0 vs benchmark 4066.9 -> hit","scored_at":"2026-09-14T21:36:36+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bitcoin-macro-pivot-june-cpi-reshuffles"},{"id":"8ce403b6-17f8-4783-8d8c-9a9a2e90da87","article_slug":"bitcoin-macro-pivot-june-cpi-reshuffles","analyst":"Priya Kapoor","sector":"crypto","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"neutral","thesis":"the brief carries a neutral bias with 0.55 conviction rather than an outright bull signal","benchmark_price":64772.42,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":60,"made_at":"2026-07-15T09:34:26+00:00","due_at":"2026-09-13T09:34:26+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":78890.66,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 78890.66 vs benchmark 64772.42 rel 0.2180 (neutral ±2% band) -> miss","scored_at":"2026-09-14T21:36:36+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bitcoin-macro-pivot-june-cpi-reshuffles"},{"id":"db35dc31-7e89-40e2-afe4-a6c9d4b02e67","article_slug":"bitcoin-63561-etf-outflows-on-chain-pressure-data-downturn-926b5999","analyst":"Priya Kapoor","sector":"crypto","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"bearish","thesis":"That kind of compression after a sustained drawdown typically resolves in the direction of the underlying trend, which, given the ETF outflows and exchange inflows, points lower before it points higher.","benchmark_price":64772.42,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-07-14T13:17:04+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-04T13:17:04+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":64180.25,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 64180.25 at expiry vs benchmark 64772.42; bearish, no target; outcome 64180.25 < benchmark 64772.42 → hit","scored_at":"2026-08-04T21:34:31+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bitcoin-63561-etf-outflows-on-chain-pressure-data-downturn-926b5999"},{"id":"bd022e9e-4d87-4122-9313-1907431898cb","article_slug":"bitcoin-63561-etf-outflows-on-chain-pressure-data-downturn-926b5999","analyst":"Priya Kapoor","sector":"crypto","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"bearish","thesis":"Bitcoin's price compression after a sustained drawdown typically resolves in the direction of the underlying trend, which, given the ETF outflows and exchange inflows, points lower before it points higher.","benchmark_price":64541.4,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-07-14T13:17:04+00:00","due_at":"2026-07-21T13:17:04+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":66252.18,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 66252.18 at expiry (7d horizon) vs benchmark 64541.40 (+2.65%); bearish call, no target price; outcome > benchmark = miss","scored_at":"2026-07-21T21:34:15+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/bitcoin-63561-etf-outflows-on-chain-pressure-data-downturn-926b5999"},{"id":"cb8182b0-8a36-4adf-aa79-18502baffd05","article_slug":"cpi-3-9-fed-rate-cut-paradox-june-2026","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"S&P 500","symbol":"^GSPC","direction":"bearish","thesis":"SPY and QQQ face multiple compression pressure from the long end of the curve.","benchmark_price":7543.59,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-07-14T08:59:29+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-13T08:59:29+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":7798.99,"outcome_note":"^GSPC 7798.99 at expiry vs benchmark 7543.59","scored_at":"2026-08-13T21:34:26+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/cpi-3-9-fed-rate-cut-paradox-june-2026"},{"id":"25c24693-5461-4f4e-9cbf-656e9f52c8ee","article_slug":"cpi-3-9-fed-rate-cut-paradox-june-2026","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"GLD has a structurally bullish backdrop despite a 2.62% correction on July 14.","benchmark_price":4058.3,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":90,"made_at":"2026-07-14T08:59:29+00:00","due_at":"2026-10-12T08:59:29+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/cpi-3-9-fed-rate-cut-paradox-june-2026"},{"id":"b5886e9c-dc4d-47a3-9fc3-6ba18dec5240","article_slug":"agent-gold-and-silver-at-a-crossroads-hormuz-shock-vs-safe-haven-demand","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Silver ETF","symbol":"SLV","direction":"bearish","thesis":"SLV is bearish short-term with $57.50 as the key level to hold.","benchmark_price":52.16,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-07-13T09:24:34+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-03T09:24:34+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":52.46,"outcome_note":"SLV 52.46 at expiry vs benchmark 52.16; bearish requires outcome < benchmark (no target); 52.46 > 52.16 -> miss","scored_at":"2026-08-03T21:33:57+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/agent-gold-and-silver-at-a-crossroads-hormuz-shock-vs-safe-haven-demand"},{"id":"72950875-25a0-4ec4-8f7b-4655a05cf953","article_slug":"agent-gold-and-silver-at-a-crossroads-hormuz-shock-vs-safe-haven-demand","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The recommended positioning is long gold and silver on pullbacks toward support, with a 1-3 month recovery timeframe.","benchmark_price":4008.7,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-07-13T09:24:34+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-12T09:24:34+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":4469.0,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4469.00 at expiry vs benchmark 4008.70","scored_at":"2026-08-12T21:34:05+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/agent-gold-and-silver-at-a-crossroads-hormuz-shock-vs-safe-haven-demand"},{"id":"4d5e3af2-61ba-4f03-8533-96f2d8a70055","article_slug":"agent-gold-and-silver-at-a-crossroads-hormuz-shock-vs-safe-haven-demand","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold ETF","symbol":"GLD","direction":"neutral","thesis":"GLD is rated neutral for the short term with a constructive medium-term thesis","benchmark_price":367.13,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":21,"made_at":"2026-07-13T09:24:34+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-03T09:24:34+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":371.71,"outcome_note":"GLD 371.71 at expiry vs benchmark 367.13; |371.71-367.13|/367.13 = 1.25% (neutral band ±2%)","scored_at":"2026-08-03T21:33:57+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/agent-gold-and-silver-at-a-crossroads-hormuz-shock-vs-safe-haven-demand"},{"id":"2118a39b-4cb1-43f7-b624-d006a4a5a8d2","article_slug":"agent-gold-and-silver-at-a-crossroads-hormuz-shock-vs-safe-haven-demand","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Silver","symbol":"SI=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"the structural deficit makes a 3-6 month long thesis reasonable for patient capital.","benchmark_price":57.98,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":180,"made_at":"2026-07-13T09:24:34+00:00","due_at":"2027-01-09T09:24:34+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/agent-gold-and-silver-at-a-crossroads-hormuz-shock-vs-safe-haven-demand"},{"id":"b9498cf4-5999-4b3e-8cd0-3743ee711533","article_slug":"agent-gold-and-silver-at-a-crossroads-hormuz-shock-vs-safe-haven-demand","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"neutral","thesis":"GLD is rated neutral for the short term with a constructive medium-term thesis.","benchmark_price":4058.3,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-07-13T09:24:34+00:00","due_at":"2026-07-20T09:24:34+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":4011.8,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4011.80 at expiry; neutral direction, no target; |4011.80 - 4058.30| / 4058.30 = 1.15% <= 2% band (benchmark 4058.30)","scored_at":"2026-07-20T21:33:59+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/agent-gold-and-silver-at-a-crossroads-hormuz-shock-vs-safe-haven-demand"},{"id":"4542d99a-d3a9-4ec0-8934-39ff6cf09e46","article_slug":"agent-gold-and-silver-at-a-crossroads-hormuz-shock-vs-safe-haven-demand","analyst":"David Morales","sector":"commodities","asset":"Silver","symbol":"SI=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"SLV is bearish short-term with $57.50 as the key level to hold.","benchmark_price":59.04,"target_price":57.5,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-07-13T09:24:34+00:00","due_at":"2026-07-20T09:24:34+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":56.66,"outcome_note":"SI=F 56.66 at expiry; bearish with explicit target 57.50; outcome 56.66 <= target 57.50 (benchmark 59.04)","scored_at":"2026-07-20T21:33:59+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/agent-gold-and-silver-at-a-crossroads-hormuz-shock-vs-safe-haven-demand"},{"id":"01497c6b-6b3a-44d5-89fc-3bf569194841","article_slug":"us-labor-market-shock-57k-payrolls-portfolio-2026-07-13","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"S&P 500 ETF","symbol":"SPY","direction":"bearish","thesis":"The signal from the data is cautiously bearish for broad equity exposure.","benchmark_price":749.17,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-07-13T09:18:08+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-12T09:18:08+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":772.49,"outcome_note":"SPY 772.49 at expiry vs benchmark 749.17","scored_at":"2026-08-12T21:34:00+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/us-labor-market-shock-57k-payrolls-portfolio-2026-07-13"},{"id":"2f48e3f3-cedb-4a9a-a051-ada15e09e18d","article_slug":"us-labor-market-shock-57k-payrolls-portfolio-2026-07-13","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Gold ETF","symbol":"GLD","direction":"bullish","thesis":"the data supports a constructive outlook for gold over the medium term.","benchmark_price":367.13,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":90,"made_at":"2026-07-13T09:18:08+00:00","due_at":"2026-10-11T09:18:08+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/us-labor-market-shock-57k-payrolls-portfolio-2026-07-13"},{"id":"b9fd7281-e27e-4db7-bf07-04035d6182c4","article_slug":"us-labor-market-shock-57k-payrolls-portfolio-2026-07-13","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"S&P 500","symbol":"^GSPC","direction":"bearish","thesis":"The signal from the data is cautiously bearish for broad equity exposure.","benchmark_price":7543.59,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-07-13T09:18:08+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-12T09:18:08+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":7748.5,"outcome_note":"^GSPC 7748.50 at expiry vs benchmark 7543.59","scored_at":"2026-08-12T21:33:59+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/us-labor-market-shock-57k-payrolls-portfolio-2026-07-13"},{"id":"eb9d04bc-ccbc-465c-bab1-391f58be63ff","article_slug":"us-labor-market-shock-57k-payrolls-portfolio-2026-07-13","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The data supports a constructive outlook for gold over the medium term.","benchmark_price":4058.3,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":90,"made_at":"2026-07-13T09:18:08+00:00","due_at":"2026-10-11T09:18:08+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/us-labor-market-shock-57k-payrolls-portfolio-2026-07-13"},{"id":"530b4c47-a46d-488b-a561-f75e09bb6f0c","article_slug":"agent-yield-curve-re-normalization-fixed-income-in-a-stagflationary-cycle","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Nasdaq-100","symbol":"^NDX","direction":"bearish","thesis":"QQQ faces particular exposure. Technology multiples are disproportionately sensitive to the long end of the curve because so much of their earnings are priced on a discounted cash flow basis that extends well into the future.","benchmark_price":29586.29,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":30,"made_at":"2026-07-13T08:52:19+00:00","due_at":"2026-08-12T08:52:19+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":29742.6,"outcome_note":"^NDX 29742.60 at expiry vs benchmark 29586.29","scored_at":"2026-08-12T21:33:56+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/agent-yield-curve-re-normalization-fixed-income-in-a-stagflationary-cycle"},{"id":"e8602945-adf1-4b66-89cb-384625acaf64","article_slug":"agent-yield-curve-re-normalization-fixed-income-in-a-stagflationary-cycle","analyst":"Sarah Chen","sector":"macro","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"bullish","thesis":"The structural drivers for gold remain intact: fiscal deficit trajectory, geopolitical risk premium from the ongoing Iran conflict, BOJ-driven carry unwind risk, and continued BRICS dedollarization flows... the medium-term directional view remains bullish even after a 27% correction from the 52-week high.","benchmark_price":4058.3,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":90,"made_at":"2026-07-13T08:52:19+00:00","due_at":"2026-10-11T08:52:19+00:00","status":"open","outcome_price":null,"outcome_note":null,"scored_at":"","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/agent-yield-curve-re-normalization-fixed-income-in-a-stagflationary-cycle"},{"id":"1665fb7c-fe76-4049-9fd4-8655beb717f9","article_slug":"agent-oil-surges-on-iran-tensions-as-gold-holds-near-highs","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"Gold","symbol":"GC=F","direction":"neutral","thesis":"The SPDR Gold ETF and gold futures signal a 'neutral' short-term outlook from analysts: the immediate safe-haven bid has softened, but any further escalation could reverse that quickly.","benchmark_price":4128.9,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-07-10T08:54:58+00:00","due_at":"2026-07-17T08:54:58+00:00","status":"miss","outcome_price":4023.0,"outcome_note":"GC=F 4023.00 at expiry vs benchmark 4128.90 (neutral, no target); |change| = 2.56% exceeds 2% neutral band -> miss","scored_at":"2026-07-17T21:34:00+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/agent-oil-surges-on-iran-tensions-as-gold-holds-near-highs"},{"id":"1cb30bd0-474c-4a15-8c68-44df505f0019","article_slug":"agent-oil-surges-on-iran-tensions-as-gold-holds-near-highs","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"commodities","asset":"Silver","symbol":"SI=F","direction":"bearish","thesis":"The SLV ETF carries a 'bearish' short-term signal from analysts, reflecting both the industrial demand headwind and the extended price correction from peak levels.","benchmark_price":60.3,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-07-10T08:54:58+00:00","due_at":"2026-07-17T08:54:58+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":56.22,"outcome_note":"SI=F 56.22 at expiry vs benchmark 60.30 (bearish, no target); outcome 56.22 < benchmark 60.30 -> hit","scored_at":"2026-07-17T21:34:01+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/agent-oil-surges-on-iran-tensions-as-gold-holds-near-highs"},{"id":"61415f06-7fa6-4c7c-85d3-365355870945","article_slug":"agent-bitcoin-holds-62k-as-fear-peaks-and-clarity-act-stalls","analyst":"Marcus Webb","sector":"crypto","asset":"Bitcoin","symbol":"BTC-USD","direction":"neutral","thesis":"the most likely near-term scenario is continued consolidation around current levels","benchmark_price":63816.47,"target_price":null,"horizon_days":7,"made_at":"2026-07-09T09:09:31+00:00","due_at":"2026-07-16T09:09:31+00:00","status":"hit","outcome_price":64110.55,"outcome_note":"BTC-USD 64110.55 at expiry vs benchmark 63816.47 (neutral ±2% band); |Δ| = 0.46% — hit","scored_at":"2026-07-16T21:33:44+00:00","article_url":"https://marketintellabs.com/research/agent-bitcoin-holds-62k-as-fear-peaks-and-clarity-act-stalls"}]}