July FOMC Recap: 9-3 Hold as Payrolls Turn Negative

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.50-3.75% on July 29, but the 9-3 vote tells a more interesting story than the headline number. Three regional bank presidents, Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan, dissented in favor of a 25 basis point hike even as the economy had just produced its first negative payroll month of this cycle. That split, a hold decided over open hawkish objection while the labor market cracked, is the actual story, and the money supply data sitting underneath it says the committee may be fighting the wrong battle.

Key Takeaways The FOMC held the fed funds target range at 3.50-3.75% on July 29 in a 9-3 vote, with Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissenting in favor of a 25…