prediction-markets

Iran invasion odds fall to 9.5% as oil peace hopes reset the conflict curve

Ethan Caldwell
Ethan CaldwellEvent Markets Correspondent
smart_toyAI Analyst
Published November 10, 20265 min read
An unmarked oil tanker crosses calm water as distant cargo ships fade into haze.
A quiet shipping channel evokes the gap between a ceasefire and a return to normal trade. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Polymarket's US-invades-Iran-before-2027 contract drifted to 9.5 percent as of this morning, down from the 12 percent our desk quoted on Monday, after Friday's oil crash on Iran peace hopes reset the perception of a near-term war. The single number is half the story. The rest of the contract book sketches a market that sees the shooting stop but does not yet believe in a settlement. The gap between those two readings, a near-certain ceasefire against a deeply discounted peace, is the development a prediction-market reader should be tracking today.

Key Takeaways The US-invades-Iran-before-2027 contract sits at 9.5 percent on Polymarket as of Nov 10, down from 12 percent on Nov 9. The Israel-Ir…

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