Fed rate path odds: Kalshi's December ladder prices a 25 bps hike at 79 percent after consumer confidence hits 91.7

Kalshi's December federal-funds ladder priced, as of 15:30 UTC on October 27, about a 79 percent implied probability of a 25 basis point hike to 4.25 percent at the December 9 meeting, and the last demand data point before Wednesday's rate decision does nothing to push that path aside. Tuesday's Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index of 91.7, up 7.5 points from September's revised 84.2 and well above the 81 in a Reuters poll of forecasters, is the resilience signal a rates market relies on when it is asked to keep a hike priced. The upper bound of the federal funds rate stands at 4.00 percent. On the eve of the October decision, the event markets are betting it will sit at 4.25 percent a…