Israel next PM odds: Polymarket prices Netanyahu at 45.5% as Eizenkot slides to 26.1%

Polymarket's Israel next-prime-minister contracts repriced sharply through election night, then sat still. By early Wednesday, Oct 28, the contract asking whether Benjamin Netanyahu becomes the next prime minister traded at 45.5 percent, up from 27.5 percent when this desk last checked it on the morning of Oct 27, while Gadi Eizenkot's contract slid to 26.1 percent from 53.9 percent. A single venue read at about 07:45 UTC on Oct 28 produced both quotes.

The mover is the official live count, not a poll. Israel's Central Elections Committee publishes partial tallies as ballots come in, and the numbers through Wednesday morning redrew the next-PM picture. The Associated Press reported with about 66 percent counted that Likud held 21 percent of the vote to Yashar's 16.1 percent, with neither party nor bloc near a governing majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Partner tallies moved in the same direction: ynetnews showed 51.8 percent counted with Netanyahu's bloc on 55 seats and Eizenkot's on 49, Likud on 27 and Eizenkot's Yashar on 21. Israel Hayom's live tracker had it 54 to 48 for Netanyahu's bloc after 66 percent was in, and the Jerusalem Post put Netanyahu's bloc on 54 seats with more than four million ballots counted.

Related reading: Israel prime minister odds: Eizenkot leads Netanyahu as Trump delays endorsement.

That is the hung-Knesset outcome the desk's coverage priced in over previous days, where most seats is not the same as power. Reuters' live election graphic, updated at 09:24 GMT on Oct 28, had Kan 11's exit poll at 51 seats for each bloc with 18 unaligned. CNN reported more than 60 percent counted with parties opposed to Netanyahu on course for about 65 seats together, but fragmented. Yashar, Eizenkot's new party, is tracking to 21 seats, second only to Likud, yet the Jerusalem Post reports Eizenkot has ruled out serving under Netanyahu, which narrows the coalition arithmetic on his side.

The next-PM market read that directly. Two Polymarket contracts, market 682705 for Netanyahu and 682708 for Eizenkot, both carried Oct 28, 03:59 UTC as their expected close. As the count built toward a Likud-led bloc in the lead and Eizenkot's own path narrowed, the YES on Netanyahu more than doubled from 27.5 to 45.5 percent while Eizenkot's fell by more than half. The two contracts do not need to sum to 100 because they are separate listings with other coalition candidates in the field, but the direction is the point: the money is consolidating toward a Netanyahu-led outcome, not toward an open field.

Related reading: Israel election 2026 odds: Yashar 72.5% to win most Knesset seats as hung-Knesset price holds 86%.

Resolutions

The two next-PM markets this desk has tracked both reached their expected resolution time this morning, so they get a direct ledger read against the venue and the primary source. Polymarket still lists both as open as of the Oct 28 morning check, with the closed flag false and no UMA resolution status, even though the scheduled close passed at 03:59 UTC. The primary source agrees there is nothing to settle yet: the Central Elections Committee has not finished counting, neither bloc commands 61 seats, and no leader has a confirmed path to 61 for the president to test through coalition talks. Neither contract is being recorded as resolved today; that is the honest state, and both stay open on the ledger to be rechecked as the count finalizes and coalition negotiations begin.

That is the part worth flagging for prediction-market readers. A next-prime-minister contract can reach its advertised resolution time with no outcome to resolve, and a venue can hold it open for weeks while the underlying politics sort out. Repricing happens inside that window, which is exactly what the Oct 28 quotes show. Anyone reading a next-PM number off a screen should check the closure status, not just the price, because an open contract past its schedule is still trading an indeterminate political event.

Related reading: US Iran Ceasefire Market Resolves Yes: October 15 Passed Without a Strike on Iranian Soil.

The count is not finished. Israel Hayom says the final tally is expected only later this week. After that, President Isaac Herzog consults the parties before asking someone to form a government, and neither the AP's figures nor the exit polls carry a clean 61. The realistic markers ahead are the final Central Elections Committee tally, approval from Herzog, and then the roughly 42 days a designated leader gets to assemble a coalition, with another election a live alternative if that fails.

So Netanyahu at 45.5 percent versus Eizenkot at 26.1 percent is not a settled forecast. It is the market pricing the most plausible route the live count has produced, with no committed coalition behind it. Until the Knesset actually confirms a prime minister, both contracts stay open and tradable, and the resolutions will land only at that confirmation. The overnight move is the story; a clearing price is not here yet.

Related reading: Fed December 2026 hike odds: Polymarket prices 74.5% for a 25 bps move after jobless claims print at 194,000.

More on this beat: prediction-markets coverage, tracking event-contract odds and resolution across every market this desk covers.

Sources: Polymarket Gamma API (markets 682708, 682705) checked Oct 28 around 07:45 UTC; Israel Central Elections Committee partial count as reported by AP News, ynetnews, Israel Hayom and The Jerusalem Post, all Oct 28; exit-poll context via Reuters live results and CNN live coverage, Oct 28.

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