2026 midterm prediction markets: the 76.5% Democratic sweep call settled yes

Election night handed the prediction markets a clean landing, not a stumble. During the day on November 3, this desk tracked Polymarket pricing a full Democratic sweep of Congress at 76.5%. By the morning of November 4 the setup had resolved: the Associated Press confirmed Democratic control of the Senate, ABC projected the House flipping to the Democrats, and the sweep contract settled. The odds market did not just describe the night. It called the exact combination that happened.

Key Takeaways Polymarket's 76.5% full-sweep contract, a Democratic Senate plus a Democratic House, settled as a winning contract after AP confirmed the Senate and ABC projected the House on November 4. The Democrat…