Fed December decision odds: prediction markets price a 77.5% move on Dec 8-9

The week of Monday, November 9 opens with the December Federal Reserve meeting priced as a near-certain move rather than a hold. Prediction-market contracts on the December 8 and 9 FOMC sit at 22.5 percent that the committee leaves the target range unchanged. The flip side, 77.5 percent, is the market's probability that the Fed changes rates in some direction at that meeting.

Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 22.5% probability the Fed holds rates after its December 8 and 9, 2026 meeting, versus 77.5% for a change. The contract is the most-traded macro book on the venue: $3.87 million in volume and roughly $697,000 in two-way liquidity as of the November 9 snapshot. Kalshi lists the same Decem…