Fed December 2026 hike odds: Kalshi prices a 14.5% chance rates clear 4.25% as Brent crude holds above $108

The single-hike story has been told. Monday's read had December Fed coins near 83.5% for one move, and this morning's October leg sat at 11.5%. The number the headlines miss is the second step, not the first: Kalshi's December 9 market prices a 14.5% chance the federal funds upper bound clears the 4.25% strike after the meeting, and a 4.5% slice that reaches 4.50% or higher. That 14.5% line is the story. What is notable is the path, not a hold: the line opened October trading as high as 0.39 on October 1, decayed to the 0.13 to 0.17 range by October 13 and 14, then the crude shock shoved it back up to a 0.34 high on October 15 and a 0.21 to 0.30 run on October 16 before it faded into the 0.1…