US Iran ceasefire odds: Polymarket prices the lull fading from 94.6% to 37.5%

Polymarket has built a ladder out of the US-Iran ceasefire, and the ladder is telling a sharper story than any single headline. The market prices a 94.6% chance the truce holds through October 22, an 84.5% chance it survives October 31, a 50.5% chance it lasts through November 30, and a 37.5% chance it is still standing on December 31. That is a decay curve steep enough to read as a market opinion: the current calm is real but thin, and the probability of holding collapses by roughly half between late October and late November.

Key Takeaways Polymarket prices a 94.6% chance the US-Iran ceasefire holds through October 22, and 84.5% through October 31. The November 30 leg sits at 50.5%, and the…