Fed Policy Repricing After the July Jobs Miss: Labor Cracks vs. Sticky Inflation

Nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 in July, the first outright monthly decline of this expansion, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised May and June down a combined 103,000 in the same report. That combination, a negative headline print stacked on a three-digit downward revision, is why the September rate decision that looked settled two weeks ago is now genuinely contested. Key Takeaways July nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000, the first outright monthly decline this expansion, with May and June revised down a combined 103,000 (BLS USDL-26-1291, released August 7, 2026). The FOMC held its target range at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29 by a 9-3 vote, with three dissenters wanting an immediate hike on the v…