Will the Fed raise rates in December? Kalshi prices a 25 basis point hike at 91.5%

October Producer Price Index data re-priced the Federal Reserve's December decision market on Friday, pushing Kalshi's contract on a 25 basis point hike to 91.5%, up two points in 24 hours and the freshest repricing on the prediction-markets beat after this morning's print. The question for the next release is whether the CPI data scheduled for next month confirms that level or moves it again.

Key Takeaways Kalshi prices a 25 basis point December Fed hike at 91.5%, up two points after October PPI ran at an annual 6.5%. The three non-hike outcomes together carry about 4.5% implied probability; the cut legs trade effectively at zero. Polymarket agrees within a point at 90.5%, a tight cross-venu…