Fed decision odds: Polymarket prices a 99.95% hold today as the December hike bet climbs to 81.5%

The October rate decision is the least contested event contract on the board. Polymarket's October meeting contract prices a 99.95% implied probability of no change ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee announcement at 2 PM ET this afternoon. The real rate-path information for the rest of 2026 now sits one meeting further out, in the December contract, where Polymarket implies an 81.5% chance the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points, up from roughly 74.5% on our read late last week.

Key Takeaways Polymarket implies a 99.95% probability of no Fed change after today's October 28 meeting. The December 2026 meeting market now prices an 81.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike, up from about 74.5…