July FOMC: Fed Holds at 3.50-3.75% as Payrolls Turn Negative
The Fed held its target range at 3.50-3.75% on July 29 in a 9-3 vote, but the dissent tells the real story: three governors, Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan, wanted a 25bp hike even as July nonfarm nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000, the first monthly contraction of this cycle. That is a central bank pinned between a labor market that just turned and inflation trends that will not fully cooperate.
Key Takeaways The FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75% on a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a hike, while July payrolls fell 23,000 after gains of 20,000 in June and 148,000 in April. Core PCE sits at 3.29% year over year, roughly 130 basis points above the Fed's 2% target, even as core CPI eased to 2.47% in…
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