Fed rate odds: December hike bar slides to 78.5% as GDP beats while inflation cools

Kalshi's December 2026 Fed rate path market is trading its hike bar near 78.5 percent on Thursday, down from about 83.5 percent at Wednesday's close, after a third quarter GDP advance that beat forecasts even as the inflation gauges built into it cooled. The move turns a headline macro surprise into the question that matters next: whether the Federal Reserve, running an economy that grew at 3.4 percent with core prices slowing, still prices a year end hike as a near certainty.

Key Takeaways Kalshi's December hike bar, the implied chance the federal funds upper bound clears 4.00 percent after the Dec 9 meeting, is trading near 78.5 percent on Thursday, down from about 83.5 percent at Wednesday…