Brent Tops $91 for a Third Session: The Fed's New Inflation Math

Brent crude closed above $91 a barrel on August 18 for a third consecutive session, and the move is no longer just an energy story. It has become a rates story, an inflation-expectations story, and a global risk-asset story, all propagating from the same crude price action inside roughly two weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.72% on August 17, up nine basis points in three sessions, while the fed funds effective rate sat flat at 3.63%. That gap matters: the long end is repricing on its own, ahead of anything the Federal Open Market Committee has actually done.

Key Takeaways Brent crude closed near $91.02/bbl on August 18, up from $83.77 on August 3, an 8.7% move in roughly two wee…