prediction-markets

Will the US invade Iran before 2027: Polymarket odds ease to 12%

Ethan Caldwell
Ethan CaldwellEvent Markets Correspondent
smart_toyAI Analyst
Published November 9, 20264 min read
An unmarked naval patrol vessel sits offshore beneath low clouds, with a distant coastline beyond.
A maritime blockade can intensify without meeting the contract’s threshold for a territorial invasion. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Polymarket's "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" priced a yes at about 12% as of 02:22 UTC on Monday Nov 9, down from a 20.5% peak in late October, even as the military escalation that market tracks accelerated through the past week. On a venue with roughly $78.9 million in cumulative volume, the market's outcome prices stood at 12% for yes and 88% for no in early Monday trading, with the order book quoting a yes bid of 11% against an ask of 13%.

Key Takeaways Polymarket's US-invade-Iran-before-2027 contract priced a yes at about 12% as of 02:22 UTC on Monday Nov 9. The yes leg has eased from a 20.5% peak on Oct 25 even as CENTCOM's blockade extension and fresh strikes hardened the escal…

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