Gold Holds Above $4,400 as Silver ETFs Rally 2.3%

Gold futures held above $4,400 on Thursday, trading at $4,472.70 as central bank buying continues to underpin physical demand. Silver ETFs showed relative strength, with SLV jumping 2.27% to $60.72 despite silver futures dipping 0.25% to $68.47. The divergence between paper and physical markets suggests industrial demand is picking up even as safe-haven flows moderate.

CFTC positioning data as of September 1 shows managed money is firmly net long gold, holding 950 contracts against zero shorts. That positioning supports the case for further upside if gold can break through resistance at $4,500. For silver, the stronger ETF performance versus futures points to institutional rotation into the white metal as manufacturing PMIs show tentative signs of recovery.

Oil prices slipped 0.48% to $95.59 as weekly EIA data indicated a larger-than-expected build in crude inventories. Demand concerns persist amid softening global growth, though geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to provide a floor under prices. The USO ETF gained 2.70% on the session, benefiting from contango roll yield rather than spot strength.

Central bank gold purchases remain a structural support. Emerging market banks continue to diversify away from USD holdings, reducing available above-ground stocks. This physical demand is what has allowed gold to hold $4,400 support despite ETF outflows in recent weeks. The data suggests the physical bid is stronger than paper market sentiment would indicate.

All eyes now turn to the US CPI release on September 13. Consensus expects headline CPI at 2.8% year-over-year. A print above 3.0% would push out expectations for Fed rate cuts, supporting real yields and potentially pressuring gold. The market assigns roughly a 25% probability to such a hot print, based on Fed funds futures positioning.

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