prediction-markets

Polymarket October inflation contract expired unpriced after 2025 lapse erased the annual CPI yardstick

Ethan Caldwell
Ethan CaldwellEvent Markets Correspondent
smart_toyAI Analyst
Published November 11, 20264 min read
A face-down paper release lies beside three closed manila folders on an office desk.
A staged still life evokes the October CPI contracts that expired without a publishable annual figure. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Three Polymarket contracts tied to the year-over-year October inflation print expired this morning without a resolvable number. The October Consumer Price Index could not produce a twelve-month figure because the Labor Department retroactively adjusted the October 2025 reading that the annual comparison base uses, a side effect of the government funding lapse that closed the agency that month. The Bureau released the monthly change and let the annual line sit, and a contract that grades on a number the official series cannot supply has nothing to settle.

Each of the three was an annual-inflation ladder, not a directional one-off bet. The buyer picked a year-over-year October CPI reading out o…

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