2026 balance of power: Polymarket prices a full Democratic sweep at 76.5%

Key takeaways Polymarket prices a full Democratic sweep of both chambers at 76.5% as US polls prepare to close on Election Day 2026. The only live alternative is divided government: a Republican Senate over a Democratic House at 17.5%. Across the four sweep combinations the market net is near-complete at 99.15%, leaving little unbooked probability before the 2026-11-04 04:59Z settlement window. Venue structure still diverges: Polymarket prices the combo matrix directly while Kalshi lists broader chamber-control questions, keeping a small cross-venue arb open into the print. With US polls set to close in the hours ahead, Polymarket's balance-of-power complex prices a complete Democratic sweep…