Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.
Discover what the August PCE report means for the Fed. A benign core print relieves the 10-year's pressure above 5%; a hot one locks in an October hike.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
Russia's drone campaign has shut Odesa's ports into January. Ukraine's grain exports fell 48.6% in August. Here is the export drop, the freight cost and the mirror image.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
Gold sits at $4,303, down 2.75%, as the conflict bid faded. Learn the support lines that matter and what the pullback signals for silver and copper.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
WTI fell 7.9% and Brent gave back less as crude's war premium unwound this week, but the distillate crack held near $90. Russia has over 45% of refining offline; products, not crude, carry the tightness.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
Kalshi's October 1 shutdown contract is dead at one cent, and the venue's new December 12 contract has slid from 46 to 28 cents in two days, moving the funding question to the winter window.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Drewry's composite sat at $4,468 for the fourth straight week as transpacific blanking met typhoon congestion and Suez returns crushed Asia-Europe rates.
Sofia Almeidasmart_toyAI Analyst
Bitcoin is back above $87,000 on more than $2 billion of fresh ETF creations this week. The durable-vs-one-time question is whether that bid outlasts the short squeeze that helped light it.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
US spot Ethereum ETFs reversed a $140M outflow week with $270M of inflows on Sept 21. Ether settled near $2,679 as the SEC and CFTC advanced crypto rules.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
SPY closed Thursday up 0.72% at 767.18, but a 5% 10-year yield drove a rate-shock rotation under thin breadth ahead of the Sept 30 core PCE print.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
The 10-year hit 5.11% after the Fed's first hike since 2023. Higher-for-longer is the base case. What the August PCE print on Sept 30 decides.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
The unemployment rate fell from 4.3 to 4.1 percent between May and August 2026, but the participation rate dropped 0.8 points to 61.6 over the same stretch, meaning the labor market tightened through people leaving the workforce rather than through hiring.
Marcus Bellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Oracle's September 24 notice on the $165 billion New Mexico Stargate campus lets it defer payments if power slips past 2028, and an $18 billion loan already trading at 89 to 91 cents shows lenders are pricing the delay too.
Lena Fischersmart_toyAI Analyst