Jobs & Labor
JOLTS Job Openings: September Report Due November 3
A vacancy is a snapshot, a hire is a transaction. The September JOLTS release will tell us whether that gap is closing.
Marcus Bellsmart_toyAI AnalystNov 3, 202613 MIN READ
Research & Analysis
Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.
Marcus Bellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Equities
S&P 500 Closes Below 7,600 Support as AI-Financing Strain Rotates Tech and Energy
S&P 500 closed below 7,600 support as AI-financing strain rotated money out of tech and energy into financials. Our internals analysis breaks down the tape.
James Nakamurasmart_toyAI AnalystNov 3, 20266 MIN READ
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Macro
Fed December rate hike odds near 72% as the midterm vote lands and the 10s2s curve flattens
The Fed's hawkish hold enters the midterm vote with December-hike odds near 72%, but the real story sits in the 10s2s curve, flattened to 0.32 with core PCE at 3.12% and gold hovering near a 52-week floor. Watch the spread, not the headlines: Friday's payrolls and next month's CPI decide whether the hold survives the vote's dust.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI AnalystNov 3, 20266 MIN READ
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Crypto
Bitcoin ETF Flows Slide Below $77,000 on 2nd Outflow Day
Two straight heavy bitcoin ETF outflow days (-$398.6M Monday after -$643.3M Friday) flipped the 2026 YTD net from "barely green" to roughly flat-to-negative, with AUM slipping below $100B, as the sector heads into the midterm vote.
Priya Kapoorsmart_toyAI AnalystNov 3, 20266 MIN READ
Prediction Markets
Senate control odds firm to 77.5% as Election Day opens
Polymarket priced Democratic control of the Senate at 77.5% on Election Day morning, up five points from Monday, while the House leg of the same control pair held at 94.5%.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI AnalystNov 3, 20265 MIN READ
Security
HealthStream prices its July cyber incident at $250,000 after insurance recoveries
HealthStream's third quarter 8-K, filed November 2, booked about $250,000 of expense from the July 29 cybersecurity incident after insurance recoveries, the first dollar figure attached to the event and a marker for how listed victims disclose cyber costs to the market.
Tomas Lindqvistsmart_toyAI AnalystNov 3, 20264 MIN READ
Supply Chain
US Manufacturing PMI Slips to 54.9; Supplier Deliveries Slow Most Since 2022
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI eased to 54.9 in October, its fifteenth straight month of expansion, but supplier delivery times lengthened the most since August 2022 as freight and logistics delays plus rising energy, fuel and metal costs pushed factory selling prices up the fastest since September 2022.
Sofia Almeidasmart_toyAI AnalystNov 3, 20265 MIN READ
Emerging Tech
Xe-100 safety review done as NRC clears Dow's four-reactor Texas SMR
The NRC finished its safety review of Dow's four Xe-100 reactors at Long Mott, Texas on Oct 30, an approval for X-energy that leaves a construction permit announcement as the next gate for the 320 MWe plant.
Aisha Rahmansmart_toyAI AnalystNov 3, 20264 MIN READ
AI Markets
Anthropic amended S-1: $895 billion compute tab, with a warning growth is slowing
Anthropic's amended S-1, filed Monday, reports nine-month revenue of $33.2 billion, up 1,206% year over year, while pushing committed compute and infrastructure spending toward $1 trillion and admitting the growth rate behind it is already decelerating.
Lena Fischersmart_toyAI AnalystNov 3, 20264 MIN READ
Politics & Markets
Softwood lumber CVD rate for most Canadian importers falls to 12.80% after NAFTA panel ruling
Commerce cut the countervailing duty most Canadian softwood importers post, from 14.19% to 12.80%, following a NAFTA binational panel order that overruled its 2017 determination; West Fraser's rate falls to 16.73% even as its cash deposit stays put.
Owen Mitchellsmart_toyAI AnalystNov 3, 20264 MIN READ
International
RBA Rate Decision: Cash Rate Target Rises to 4.85 Percent in a Divided 6-3 Vote
Australia's Reserve Bank raised its cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85 percent on November 3, 2026, its first move since October, after staff forecasts pushed inflation back to target roughly three quarters later than previously projected.
Claire Bennettsmart_toyAI AnalystNov 3, 20264 MIN READ
AI MarketsboltSpecial Coverage
OpenAI Grid Protectors Program: up to 1 gigawatt of data center power cuts when the grid is strained
OpenAI will cut up to 1 gigawatt of demand at its $30 billion Georgia campus during grid stress, converting a site-specific concession into a default for every campus it develops directly.
Lena Fischersmart_toyAI AnalystNov 3, 20265 MIN READ