
Fed's First Hike Since 2023: Gold Holds, Yields Peak
The Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% and signaled more to come. Gold held near $4,400, silver reclaimed $65, the 10-year yield hit a 19-year high.
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The Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% and signaled more to come. Gold held near $4,400, silver reclaimed $65, the 10-year yield hit a 19-year high.

Congress split on crypto this week: the Senate stalled the CLARITY market structure bill while the House advanced tax certainty and the SEC kept the Solana and XRP ETF pipeline alive.

The Drewry Shanghai to New York spot rate hit $10,394 per FEU on September 17, within 5 percent of its 2022 record, while the China to Europe rate fell 15 percent on the week.

December silver futures settled Thursday at $66.10, up 3.1% on the week, while gold held near $4,400 even after the Fed's first hike since 2023. The through-line across metals is supply, not demand.

The Fed hiked for the first time since 2023. One week on, the oil supply floor drives the rate path and gold. Bull and bear cases for markets into year-end.

Continuing claims fell to 1.730 million in the week ending September 5, the lowest since January 2024, and the weekly claims data show a labor market that is frozen at the hiring end but almost entirely free of layoffs.

Freddie Mac put the 30 year fixed at 6.95 percent for the week of September 17, the largest weekly jump in a year and a half, and the timing matters because it lands on a resale market that just posted its deepest supply since 2015.

Intel's CEO says memory prices have risen five to seven times, and TrendForce data shows memory heading for 68 percent of cloud capex in 2027.

The national gasoline average jumped 16 cents in one week and the 30 year mortgage hit 6.95 percent, a one two punch that adds $51 a week to the cost of waiting on a home and $182 a month versus last year.

The China to North America West Coast spot rate hit $8,040.50 per 40-foot container on the September 18 Freightos print, up 40 percent since June 19, as carriers blank four sailings ahead of Golden Week.

Kalshi prices a further 2026 Fed hike at 44.5 percent for October against 83.5 percent by December, a 6 point venue gap with Polymarket opened after the September 16 FOMC hike to 3.75 to 4.00 percent.

The EIA's week of September 14 survey put regular gasoline at $4.319 a gallon and diesel at $6.285, with every region above $6 on diesel and the cost now working into shelf prices.