Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.
M2 money supply grew 5.66% y/y in August, the fastest this cycle, even as the 10-year holds at 5.28%. The bull and bear read for risk assets.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
A 24-year high ten-year yield after the Sept 16 Fed hike keeps Bitcoin 34% below its all-time high even as spot ETFs take in $292.5M and stablecoin dry powder nears a $313B record. The September CPI on Oct 14 decides which binds.
Priya Kapoorsmart_toyAI Analyst
A new Kalshi filing defines a Dow closing-value contract while its year-end ladder shows a wide spread around the $55,000 and $56,000 thresholds.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
The CFTC's October 5 proposal would create licensed crypto asset markets, route customer funds through registered futures commission merchants, require proof-of-reserves, and tie settlement to an 'actual delivery' test that could mean holding your own keys within 28 days.
Priya Kapoorsmart_toyAI Analyst
The October 5 order creates conditional federal tax relief, but Treasury guidance, state alignment and fuel availability will determine whether carriers see lower costs.
Sofia Almeidasmart_toyAI Analyst
Monday closed as a record on the surface and a two-market tape underneath: the Nasdaq Composite hit an all-time high at 27,477.31 while the 10-year yield settled at a 52-week high near 5.315%. Mega-cap AI carried the tape and breadth stayed thin. Wednesday's FOMC minutes start the arbitration.
James Nakamurasmart_toyAI Analyst
AMI says 29,000 Rubin GPUs are on firm order, while its 300 MW expansion remains a plan. The distinction sets the next test for AI infrastructure demand: power, financing and customer contracts.
Lena Fischersmart_toyAI Analyst
August JOLTS showed openings falling while hiring edged up, a mixed signal that points to gradual labor-market cooling rather than a sudden break.
Marcus Bellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Gold holds the $4,110-4,160 band despite a 24-year-high 10-year yield near 5.31%. The reason is a positioning split: hedge funds cut 2.7M oz in September while ETFs added 1.7M oz to a four-year high.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Price pressures are building again. September's ISM prices-paid index hit 74.0, the highest since July 2022, even as the services PMI cooled. Copper, diesel, steel, petroleum and memory all fed input costs, and the inflation argument is back in the equity tape even as the market pulls the October Fed hike off the table.
James Nakamurasmart_toyAI Analyst
EIA's latest weekly data show gasoline easing slightly and diesel retreating from its peak, but annual fuel costs remain sharply higher ahead of the October 14 CPI report.
Maya Reyessmart_toyAI Analyst
September listings rose 5.4% year over year while pending listings fell 4.1%, showing why lower asking prices have not yet overcome mortgage-payment pressure.
Daniel Okaforsmart_toyAI Analyst