Research & Analysis

The Weekend Brief: Inside the AI Capex Cycle, Who's Financing the Buildout

Federal Reserve data show equipment investment climbing 31.6% year over year as Super Micro and Lumentum rally on capex-driven guidance beats, while Meta's stock fell 10% on capex growth that outpaced revenue.

OFAC's Aug. 7 Iran Crypto Sweep Reveals a Five-Jurisdiction Shell Pattern: Dubai, Hong Kong, Georgia, Poland, Singapore

July CPI Lands Below Consensus, Fed Odds Reprice

July CPI rose 3.30% y/y, below the 3.4% consensus. SPY and QQQ gained as Fed hike odds for September eased; GLD slipped on a firmer dollar.

Bitcoin Range-Bound Near $63,300 as ETF Flows Turn Negative

Bitcoin holds near $63,300 as spot ETF flows swing to a four-session net outflow of $96.2 million, and Ethereum tracks BTC with no catalyst of its own this week.

SPY, QQQ Push Toward Records as Tech and Comm Services Lead

SPY and QQQ extended Thursday's record close into Friday trading, with the VIX near 14.6 and call-heavy options flow backing a tech and communication-services led tape.

Gold Slips 0.75% to $4,387 as Dollar Holds Near Weekly High

Gold, silver, oil and copper all eased Friday as the dollar held near a one-week high, giving back part of Wednesday's CPI-driven rally.

RRP Near Zero: The Liquidity Squeeze Behind July's Fed

July CPI and payrolls send conflicting signals into the September FOMC, but the sharper data point is plumbing: RRP near zero and M2 at 5.53% y/y.

BTC ETF Flows Turn Negative as SEC Delays Reg Crypto Meeting

US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a net outflow of roughly $96.2 million over four sessions, reversing an early August inflow streak, as the SEC postponed its Reg Crypto meeting with no new date and Ethereum's DeFi TVL held structural leadership at $41.2 billion.

Tech Leads a Record Tape, But the Hedging Cushion Is Thin

The S&P 500 hit a record 7,816.70 intraday on August 13 as tech (XLK +1.01%) and communication services (XLC +2.07%) led, backed by ~50% y/y Q2 earnings growth. But VIX at 14.63 and a call-heavy 0.59 put/call ratio leave the market with a thin hedging cushion, and today's Applied Materials report is the next test of the AI-capex thesis behind the rotation.

Central Banks' Record Gold Buying Outruns Crowded Longs

Record central-bank gold buying and a 21-month PBOC streak point to a structural floor even as CFTC data shows managed-money longs stretched after the CPI pop.

Bitcoin Stalls Near $63,700 as ETF Flows Turn Choppy

Bitcoin held near $63,500 to $63,900 after an in-line July CPI print, with spot ETF flows swinging to a $61 million outflow and stablecoin supply flat near $306.6 billion.