July CPI Lands Below Consensus, Fed Odds Reprice
July CPI rose 3.30% year over year, a touch under the 3.4% consensus economists had penciled in, and that small miss did most of the work in today's cross-asset tape. With three FOMC members on record favoring a hike just two weeks ago, a print that undershoots forecasts takes the hawkish tail risk off the table for the September meeting and leaves the Fed's 3.50-3.75% target range looking like the base case again.
Key Takeaways July CPI rose 3.30% year over year (0.07% month over month), below the 3.4% consensus estimate cited ahead of the release. SPY gained 0.70% and QQQ gained 1.16% in today's session as traders read the softer print as room for the Fed to hold rather than hike in Septemb…
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